0xac99…1380

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xac990f444a5d016a6296227c8e4deefc9b841380
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.7pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

34% @ 30.6¢

Brier

0.126

Resolved

2282

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (257/623)	+12%	623
Sports	22% (9/41)	+6%	41
Politics	64% (7/11)	+14%	11
Tech	44% (4/9)	-1%	9
Culture	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	-46%	2
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other623 bets
Hit rate
41% (257/623)
ROI
+12%
Sports41 bets
Hit rate
22% (9/41)
ROI
+6%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
64% (7/11)
ROI
+14%
Tech9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
-1%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-46%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

40% hit · 278/691

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	$15	8.2¢	Lost
Will there be 1+ Pentakills at Worlds 2026?	No	$4	30.0¢	Lost
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in Rebounds?	Yes	$1	2.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "EU" or "European Union" during Meloni visit on April 17?	Yes	$8	77.0¢	Lost
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May?	Yes	$28	56.8¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$40	79.0¢	Won
Ethereum all time high before October?	No	$73	61.2¢	Lost
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 10 or more times?	Yes	$9	30.3¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$8	15.2¢	Lost
Will Kanye launch a coin by March 7?	Yes	$4	39.0¢	Lost
Will Fear & Greed Index report "Extreme Fear" on March 31?	Yes	$5	23.0¢	Won
Will Alireza Firouzja qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament?	Yes	$5	10.0¢	Lost
Next French confidence vote passes?	Yes	$5	5.9¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	Yes	$24	33.7¢	Lost
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025?	Yes	$2	1.3¢	Lost
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$9	23.5¢	Lost
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19ºC in May 2025?	Yes	$6	4.1¢	Lost
Erdoğan out in 2025?	No	$52	86.3¢	Won
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend?	Yes	$2	3.9¢	Lost
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring?	Yes	$12	4.5¢	Lost
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?	No	$122	87.4¢	Won
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$6	6.0¢	Lost
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$61	76.0¢	Won
Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational?	Yes	$21	42.0¢	Won
Bolsonaro arrested before April?	Yes	$3	8.7¢	Lost
Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	$30	60.6¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October?	No	$17	35.0¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$38	77.0¢	Won
Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament?	Yes	$9	44.0¢	Won
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?	Yes	$51	34.7¢	Won
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 48-64m on opening weekend?	Yes	$15	29.6¢	Lost
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 6 straight weeks?	Yes	$12	10.0¢	Lost
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	$17	42.0¢	Lost
Will Ferrari finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship?	Yes	$4	12.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	Yes	$12	40.0¢	Lost
Will Ghost of Yotei win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
WLFI market cap (FDV) <$10B one day after launch?	Yes	$15	9.7¢	Lost
Will Fedex (FDX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?	No	$9	29.0¢	Lost
Will Red Bull Racing finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship?	No	$50	77.0¢	Won
Ethereum all time high before 2026?	No	$80	61.2¢	Lost
$PENGU market cap (FDV) $8-10b one day after launch?	Yes	$15	5.2¢	Lost
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 4 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?	Yes	$5	4.2¢	Lost
Will "A Real Pain" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?	Yes	$4	19.4¢	Lost
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
ATP Finals: Zverev vs. Rublev	Zverev	$11	71.0¢	Won
Will Ekaterina Alexandrova win the 2025 WTA Korea Open?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?	No	$56	65.5¢	Won
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 6 straight weeks?	Yes	$0	6.0¢	Lost
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 10 straight weeks?	Yes	$3	6.4¢	Lost

Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Lost
Yes$15 @ 8.2¢
Will there be 1+ Pentakills at Worlds 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 30.0¢
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in Rebounds?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.4¢
Will Trump say "EU" or "European Union" during Meloni visit on April 17?Lost
Yes$8 @ 77.0¢
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May?Won
Yes$28 @ 56.8¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$40 @ 79.0¢
Ethereum all time high before October?Lost
No$73 @ 61.2¢
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 10 or more times?Lost
Yes$9 @ 30.3¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$8 @ 15.2¢
Will Kanye launch a coin by March 7?Lost
Yes$4 @ 39.0¢
Will Fear & Greed Index report "Extreme Fear" on March 31?Won
Yes$5 @ 23.0¢
Will Alireza Firouzja qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament?Lost
Yes$5 @ 10.0¢
Next French confidence vote passes?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.9¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$24 @ 33.7¢
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.3¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$9 @ 23.5¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19ºC in May 2025?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.1¢
Erdoğan out in 2025?Won
No$52 @ 86.3¢
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.9¢
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring?Lost
Yes$12 @ 4.5¢
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Won
No$122 @ 87.4¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$61 @ 76.0¢
Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational?Won
Yes$21 @ 42.0¢
Bolsonaro arrested before April?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.7¢
Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Lost
No$30 @ 60.6¢
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October?Won
No$17 @ 35.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$38 @ 77.0¢
Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament?Won
Yes$9 @ 44.0¢
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?Won
Yes$51 @ 34.7¢
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 48-64m on opening weekend?Lost
Yes$15 @ 29.6¢
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 6 straight weeks?Lost
Yes$12 @ 10.0¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
No$17 @ 42.0¢
Will Ferrari finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship?Lost
Yes$4 @ 12.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Lost
Yes$12 @ 40.0¢
Will Ghost of Yotei win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
WLFI market cap (FDV) <$10B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$15 @ 9.7¢
Will Fedex (FDX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?Lost
No$9 @ 29.0¢
Will Red Bull Racing finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship?Won
No$50 @ 77.0¢
Ethereum all time high before 2026?Lost
No$80 @ 61.2¢
$PENGU market cap (FDV) $8-10b one day after launch?Lost
Yes$15 @ 5.2¢
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 4 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.2¢
Will "A Real Pain" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?Lost
Yes$4 @ 19.4¢
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
ATP Finals: Zverev vs. RublevWon
Zverev$11 @ 71.0¢
Will Ekaterina Alexandrova win the 2025 WTA Korea Open?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?Won
No$56 @ 65.5¢
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 6 straight weeks?Lost
Yes$0 @ 6.0¢
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 10 straight weeks?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	No	$339	84.9¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$237	76.4¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	No	$169	75.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$160	84.2¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$132	88.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$107	61.1¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$94	47.1¢
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Crypto	No	$91	82.8¢
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Politics	No	$90	90.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$88	88.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?	Tech	Yes	$88	29.3¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$84	84.0¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$80	66.8¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$75	75.3¢
Will XRP hit $2 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$60	60.0¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$57	56.8¢
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$56	26.5¢
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$51	68.0¢
Will Lando Norris win 3+ Grands Prix in 2026?	Sports	Yes	$50	50.0¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Sports	Yes	$49	32.7¢
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	Politics	No	$49	81.0¢
Will Stranger Things rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026?	Tech	Yes	$45	37.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$43	77.0¢
OpenAI acquired before 2027?	Tech	No	$43	71.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	Tech	Yes	$42	70.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$39	56.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$38	79.2¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$32	23.0¢
Will G2 Esports Reach the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	Sports	Yes	$30	61.0¢
Will Nocturne be the most banned champion at Worlds 2026?	Sports	No	$26	44.0¢

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
No$339 @ 84.9¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$237 @ 76.4¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
No$169 @ 75.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$160 @ 84.2¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$132 @ 88.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
Yes$107 @ 61.1¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$94 @ 47.1¢
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?Crypto
No$91 @ 82.8¢
Russia coup attempt in 2026?Politics
No$90 @ 90.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$88 @ 88.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?Tech
Yes$88 @ 29.3¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$84 @ 84.0¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Geopolitics
No$80 @ 66.8¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$75 @ 75.3¢
Will XRP hit $2 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$60 @ 60.0¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$57 @ 56.8¢
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$56 @ 26.5¢
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$51 @ 68.0¢
Will Lando Norris win 3+ Grands Prix in 2026?Sports
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Sports
Yes$49 @ 32.7¢
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?Politics
No$49 @ 81.0¢
Will Stranger Things rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026?Tech
Yes$45 @ 37.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$43 @ 77.0¢
OpenAI acquired before 2027?Tech
No$43 @ 71.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?Tech
Yes$42 @ 70.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$39 @ 56.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$38 @ 79.2¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$32 @ 23.0¢
Will G2 Esports Reach the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?Sports
Yes$30 @ 61.0¢
Will Nocturne be the most banned champion at Worlds 2026?Sports
No$26 @ 44.0¢