0xa5e3…4d7e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa5e3044fd953605f9407d58c76e48fd75a394d7e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.8pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

25% @ 19.7¢

Brier

0.096

Resolved

563

Avg size

$20

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	24% (20/82)	-16%	82
Sports	21% (5/24)	+9%	24
Economy	25% (1/4)	-91%	4
Tech	33% (1/3)	+85%	3
Other	33% (1/3)	-5%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Politics82 bets
Hit rate
24% (20/82)
ROI
-16%
Sports24 bets
Hit rate
21% (5/24)
ROI
+9%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-91%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+85%
Other3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-5%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

23% hit · 28/120

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?	Yes	$112	61.0¢	Won
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	$5	1.3¢	Lost
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	$19	6.6¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$756	80.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$4.9k	87.9¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$7	12.2¢	Lost
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	No	$0	8.0¢	Lost
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$78	78.0¢	Won
Will Michael Blake be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?	Yes	$1	2.2¢	Lost
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	No	$239	77.3¢	Lost
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$7	14.3¢	Won
Will Alani Bankhead be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?	Yes	$0	3.2¢	Won
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$80	77.0¢	Lost
Will Angela Gonzales-Torres advance from the CA-34 primary election?	Yes	$48	75.0¢	Won
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	No	$5	11.0¢	Won
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?	No	$4	9.0¢	Lost
Will Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 NL Central title?	Yes	$0	3.3¢	Lost
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$148	24.0¢	Lost
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Series?	Yes	$2	2.1¢	Lost
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$150	3.0¢	Lost
Will Doug Turner win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	No	$161	78.3¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	$74	1.5¢	Lost
Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?	Yes	$0	1.2¢	Lost
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$218	17.1¢	Lost
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$2.3k	79.8¢	Won
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Yes	$2	1.9¢	Lost
Will Christi Jacobsen be the Republican nominee for MT-01?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$11	3.0¢	Lost
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$1	5.5¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	$16	74.0¢	Lost
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$76	76.0¢	Won
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	$1	12.7¢	Lost
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Republican Party?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	$3	1.2¢	Lost
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	10.3¢	Lost
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	$10	4.3¢	Lost
Will Tiffany Burress be the Republican nominee for NJ-09?	Yes	$1	22.0¢	Lost
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Yes	$7	3.5¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	$20	6.5¢	Lost
Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
Will Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 NL West title?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?	No	$12	9.0¢	Won
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?	Yes	$0	31.0¢	Lost
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	$1	4.1¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	$41	4.2¢	Lost
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23?	No	$12	2.5¢	Lost
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	$5	1.1¢	Won
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?	Yes	$26	64.1¢	Lost
Will Aaron Flint be the Republican nominee for MT-01?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$116	64.0¢	Won

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?Won
Yes$112 @ 61.0¢
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.3¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
No$19 @ 6.6¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$756 @ 80.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$4.9k @ 87.9¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$7 @ 12.2¢
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Lost
No$0 @ 8.0¢
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$78 @ 78.0¢
Will Michael Blake be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.2¢
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$239 @ 77.3¢
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$7 @ 14.3¢
Will Alani Bankhead be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?Won
Yes$0 @ 3.2¢
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$80 @ 77.0¢
Will Angela Gonzales-Torres advance from the CA-34 primary election?Won
Yes$48 @ 75.0¢
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$5 @ 11.0¢
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?Lost
No$4 @ 9.0¢
Will Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 NL Central title?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.3¢
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$148 @ 24.0¢
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Series?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.1¢
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
Yes$150 @ 3.0¢
Will Doug Turner win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$161 @ 78.3¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$74 @ 1.5¢
Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.2¢
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$218 @ 17.1¢
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 79.8¢
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.9¢
Will Christi Jacobsen be the Republican nominee for MT-01?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$11 @ 3.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$1 @ 5.5¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$16 @ 74.0¢
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
Yes$76 @ 76.0¢
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.7¢
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Republican Party?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.2¢
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.3¢
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.3¢
Will Tiffany Burress be the Republican nominee for NJ-09?Lost
Yes$1 @ 22.0¢
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.5¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 6.5¢
Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 NL West title?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?Won
No$12 @ 9.0¢
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?Lost
Yes$0 @ 31.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.1¢
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Lost
No$41 @ 4.2¢
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23?Lost
No$12 @ 2.5¢
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?Won
Yes$5 @ 1.1¢
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?Lost
Yes$26 @ 64.1¢
Will Aaron Flint be the Republican nominee for MT-01?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$116 @ 64.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$8.3k	81.3¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Sports	No	$4.8k	87.9¢
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	Sports	No	$3.4k	74.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$2.5k	85.6¢
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Sports	Yes	$2.4k	44.7¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.4k	74.8¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$1.0k	84.2¢
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$883	43.4¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Politics	No	$856	50.3¢
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?	Sports	No	$832	81.6¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$759	93.1¢
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	Politics	No	$733	75.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$701	13.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	Sports	No	$668	96.6¢
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	No	$663	96.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$623	36.3¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$617	52.7¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$606	58.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-07 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$603	91.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$601	89.4¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$592	10.7¢
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	Tech	No	$580	76.7¢
Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?	Sports	No	$562	96.5¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$553	88.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$547	92.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-06 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$529	87.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$527	22.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-06 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$525	93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MD-04 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$512	93.0¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Politics	Yes	$508	56.3¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$8.3k @ 81.3¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Sports
No$4.8k @ 87.9¢
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?Sports
No$3.4k @ 74.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$2.5k @ 85.6¢
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?Sports
Yes$2.4k @ 44.7¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.4k @ 74.8¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$1.0k @ 84.2¢
Weed rescheduled by December 31?Politics
Yes$883 @ 43.4¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Politics
No$856 @ 50.3¢
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?Sports
No$832 @ 81.6¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$759 @ 93.1¢
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Politics
No$733 @ 75.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$701 @ 13.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?Sports
No$668 @ 96.6¢
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
No$663 @ 96.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$623 @ 36.3¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$617 @ 52.7¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
Yes$606 @ 58.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-07 House seat?Politics
Yes$603 @ 91.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$601 @ 89.4¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$592 @ 10.7¢
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?Tech
No$580 @ 76.7¢
Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?Sports
No$562 @ 96.5¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?Politics
Yes$553 @ 88.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$547 @ 92.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-06 House seat?Politics
Yes$529 @ 87.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$527 @ 22.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-06 House seat?Politics
Yes$525 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MD-04 House seat?Politics
Yes$512 @ 93.0¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Politics
Yes$508 @ 56.3¢