0xa189…a2d5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa1890dd567befe26bf75b5d0def459e3a3e0a2d5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.4pp

ROI

+26%

Win rate

77% @ 63.6¢

Brier

0.082

Resolved

187

Avg size

$165

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (16/27)	-0%	27
Politics	57% (8/14)	+6%	14
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+56%	3
Sports	100% (2/2)	+72%	2
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other27 bets
Hit rate
59% (16/27)
ROI
-0%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
57% (8/14)
ROI
+6%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+56%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+72%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

60% hit · 28/47

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$87	83.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$755	18.6¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$4.6k	63.5¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$46	36.0¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$176	78.0¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$3.0k	78.0¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$4.5k	81.4¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$110	1.1¢	Lost
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$102	53.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026?	Yes	$5	1.2¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$255	62.8¢	Won
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?	No	$240	80.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	56.2¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	$50	5.5¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	$5	68.0¢	Won
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	$118	63.8¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	Yes	$3.1k	85.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$244	79.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$29	3.9¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	$93	3.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	$21	5.2¢	Lost
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$5.0k	90.0¢	Won
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	$724	73.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$452	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$220	22.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	$62	4.7¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$16	0.8¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$1.4k	73.1¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$430	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	$40	60.8¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$3.4k	82.8¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$615	72.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$2.5k	85.1¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	$1.6k	75.5¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$102	34.0¢	Lost
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$999	85.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?	Yes	$8.7k	99.4¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$3.4k	85.1¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$3.1k	41.6¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$126	31.5¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$1.2k	67.5¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$660	22.0¢	Lost
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$115	23.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	$500	88.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	$87	29.0¢	Lost
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$1.9k	97.0¢	Won
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$5.0k	97.1¢	Won

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$87 @ 83.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$755 @ 18.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$4.6k @ 63.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$46 @ 36.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$176 @ 78.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$3.0k @ 78.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$4.5k @ 81.4¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$110 @ 1.1¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$102 @ 53.0¢
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$255 @ 62.8¢
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?Won
No$240 @ 80.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 56.2¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 5.5¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Won
Yes$5 @ 68.0¢
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?Won
Yes$118 @ 63.8¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?Won
Yes$3.1k @ 85.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$244 @ 79.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$29 @ 3.9¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$93 @ 3.5¢
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?Lost
Yes$21 @ 5.2¢
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$5.0k @ 90.0¢
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?Won
Yes$724 @ 73.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$452 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$220 @ 22.0¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Lost
No$62 @ 4.7¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$16 @ 0.8¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 73.1¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$430 @ 86.0¢
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?Lost
Yes$40 @ 60.8¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$3.4k @ 82.8¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
Yes$615 @ 72.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$2.5k @ 85.1¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$1.6k @ 75.5¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$102 @ 34.0¢
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$999 @ 85.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Won
Yes$8.7k @ 99.4¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$3.4k @ 85.1¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$3.1k @ 41.6¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$126 @ 31.5¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$1.2k @ 67.5¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$660 @ 22.0¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
No$115 @ 23.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Won
No$500 @ 88.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?Lost
Yes$87 @ 29.0¢
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$1.9k @ 97.0¢
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$5.0k @ 97.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.4k	70.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.1k	73.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.7k	72.4¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$667	56.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$398	73.4¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$363	50.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$363	50.0¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$3.4k @ 70.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$3.1k @ 73.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$1.7k @ 72.4¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$667 @ 56.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$398 @ 73.4¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$363 @ 50.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
No$363 @ 50.0¢