0xa189…a2d5

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other27 bets

  Hit rate

  59% (16/27)

  ROI

  +4%

• Politics14 bets

  Hit rate

  57% (8/14)

  ROI

  +6%

• Crypto3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  +56%

• Sports2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +72%

• Tech1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$87 @ 83.9¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$755 @ 18.6¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
  No$16 @ 0.8¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
  Yes$1.4k @ 73.1¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
  No$430 @ 86.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$452 @ 86.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$220 @ 22.0¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$4.6k @ 63.5¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$46 @ 36.0¢
• Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?Lost
  Yes$40 @ 60.8¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
  No$176 @ 78.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
  No$29 @ 3.9¢
• Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  No$3.0k @ 78.0¢
• Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
  No$4.5k @ 81.4¢
• Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
  Yes$110 @ 1.1¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
  No$3.4k @ 82.8¢
• Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
  Yes$102 @ 53.0¢
• Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 1.2¢
• Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Lost
  No$62 @ 4.7¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
  Yes$615 @ 72.3¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$255 @ 62.8¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$2.5k @ 85.1¢
• Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?Won
  No$240 @ 80.0¢
• Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$15.7k @ 86.1¢
• Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?Lost
  Yes$93 @ 3.5¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.1k @ 56.2¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Lost
  Yes$50 @ 5.5¢
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
  No$1.6k @ 75.5¢
• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Won
  Yes$5 @ 68.0¢
• Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 5.2¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?Lost
  Yes$102 @ 34.0¢
• Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$999 @ 85.0¢
• Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?Won
  Yes$118 @ 63.8¢
• QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?Won
  Yes$724 @ 73.1¢
• Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?Won
  Yes$3.1k @ 85.6¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$244 @ 79.0¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Won
  Yes$8.7k @ 99.4¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
  No$3.4k @ 85.1¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
  No$3.1k @ 41.6¢
• Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
  Yes$126 @ 31.5¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
  No$1.2k @ 67.5¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$660 @ 22.0¢
• Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  No$115 @ 23.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Won
  No$500 @ 88.0¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?Lost
  Yes$87 @ 29.0¢
• Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
  No$1.9k @ 97.0¢
• Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
  No$5.0k @ 97.1¢

Current positions

• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$7.3k @ 85.2¢
• Iran leadership change by July 31?Politics
  No$4.8k @ 95.8¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Geopolitics
  No$4.8k @ 95.4¢
• Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?—
  No$4.6k @ 94.4¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$3.4k @ 70.3¢
• Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$3.1k @ 73.9¢
• Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?—
  Yes$3.1k @ 79.5¢
• Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 50.0¢
• Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
  No$2.1k @ 50.0¢
• Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?—
  Yes$1.4k @ 89.2¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$1.0k @ 69.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?—
  Yes$990 @ 90.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?—
  Yes$690 @ 72.7¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
  Yes$667 @ 56.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?—
  Yes$458 @ 82.4¢
• Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
  No$390 @ 72.0¢
• Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?—
  No$222 @ 74.0¢