0x9fc9…cde1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9fc91ea0410aafdb5c6d64e8385ada1b154acde1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.4pp

ROI

+49%

Win rate

63% @ 54.7¢

Brier

0.159

Resolved

263

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	64% (30/47)	+71%	47
Other	39% (18/46)	+34%	46
Geopolitics	58% (11/19)	+34%	19
Tech	25% (1/4)	-98%	4
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+43%	1

Politics47 bets
Hit rate
64% (30/47)
ROI
+71%
Other46 bets
Hit rate
39% (18/46)
ROI
+34%
Geopolitics19 bets
Hit rate
58% (11/19)
ROI
+34%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-98%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+43%

Track record

52% hit · 61/118

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	$2	43.7¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	$1	21.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$2	85.8¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$3	53.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$9	86.5¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$33	66.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$2	73.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$10	31.3¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$16	48.1¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	$2	39.7¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$4	79.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	13.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	No	$1	84.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	No	$5	88.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$1	9.6¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$14	70.0¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$4	82.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	Yes	$2	31.5¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$8	81.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	$1	27.7¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$3	31.1¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$8	84.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$1	83.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$174	72.6¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$4	86.9¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$2	8.3¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 21?	No	$4	86.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$6	57.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	No	$15	82.2¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$296	47.5¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.7¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$4	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$5	48.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$19	75.4¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$8	56.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$8	82.1¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?	No	$8	84.0¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?	No	$2	44.0¢	Lost
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?	Yes	$7	68.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	5.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	$4	39.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$121	80.6¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$12	49.6¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$13	86.7¢	Won

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 43.7¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$2 @ 85.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 53.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$9 @ 86.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$33 @ 66.2¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$2 @ 73.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$10 @ 31.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$16 @ 48.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 39.7¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 79.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Won
No$1 @ 84.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 88.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.6¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$14 @ 70.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 82.0¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 31.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$8 @ 81.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 27.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 31.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$8 @ 84.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$1 @ 83.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$174 @ 72.6¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$4 @ 86.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 21?Won
No$4 @ 86.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 57.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 10.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Won
No$15 @ 82.2¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$296 @ 47.5¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$4 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$5 @ 48.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$19 @ 75.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$8 @ 56.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 82.1¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Won
No$8 @ 84.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Lost
No$2 @ 44.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Won
Yes$7 @ 68.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 39.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$121 @ 80.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
No$12 @ 49.6¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$13 @ 86.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	No	$109	91.0¢
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?	Tech	No	$64	91.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$49	82.0¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$48	96.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$32	64.1¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$26	88.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Narrative at the 2026 Game Awards?	Culture	Yes	$23	58.0¢
GTA VI released by November 30?	Culture	Yes	$19	93.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?	Culture	No	$18	92.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$17	85.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$16	82.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?	Politics	No	$16	80.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$15	76.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$15	76.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Culture	Yes	$15	73.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$14	70.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?	Politics	No	$14	92.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards?	Culture	Yes	$13	31.9¢
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$10	96.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?	Culture	Yes	$9	40.7¢
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$7	4.4¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$7	72.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$6	58.3¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$5	94.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	24.5¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	17.0¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	34.0¢
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$1	26.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$1	24.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	8.0¢

GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
No$109 @ 91.0¢
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?Tech
No$64 @ 91.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$49 @ 82.0¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$48 @ 96.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$32 @ 64.1¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$26 @ 88.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Narrative at the 2026 Game Awards?Culture
Yes$23 @ 58.0¢
GTA VI released by November 30?Culture
Yes$19 @ 93.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?Culture
No$18 @ 92.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$17 @ 85.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 82.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?Politics
No$16 @ 80.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$15 @ 76.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$15 @ 76.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?Culture
Yes$15 @ 73.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$14 @ 70.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?Politics
No$14 @ 92.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards?Culture
Yes$13 @ 31.9¢
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$10 @ 96.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?Culture
Yes$9 @ 40.7¢
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$7 @ 4.4¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$7 @ 72.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
No$6 @ 58.3¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$5 @ 94.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 24.5¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 17.0¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 34.0¢
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 24.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢