0x8de0…7f22

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics160 bets

  Hit rate

  48% (76/160)

  ROI

  +23%

• Other99 bets

  Hit rate

  39% (39/99)

  ROI

  +38%

• Geopolitics23 bets

  Hit rate

  52% (12/23)

  ROI

  +37%

• Tech22 bets

  Hit rate

  23% (5/22)

  ROI

  -73%

• Culture11 bets

  Hit rate

  45% (5/11)

  ROI

  +66%

• Economy5 bets

  Hit rate

  40% (2/5)

  ROI

  +46%

• Business2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  -27%

• Will Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$135 @ 2.7¢
• Will European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$135 @ 2.7¢
• Will Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$135 @ 2.7¢
• Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$135 @ 2.7¢
• Will Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$135 @ 2.7¢
• Will SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$135 @ 2.7¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Lost
  No$309 @ 44.6¢
• Will Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$135 @ 2.7¢
• Will Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$135 @ 2.7¢
• Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?Lost
  Yes$665 @ 37.0¢
• Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
  No$200 @ 43.1¢
• Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
  Yes$226 @ 22.0¢
• Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Lost
  No$69 @ 7.1¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Won
  Yes$908 @ 45.5¢
• Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 1?Won
  No$7 @ 68.0¢
• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
  No$20 @ 69.0¢
• Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Lost
  Yes$187 @ 15.0¢
• Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 1?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 3.2¢
• Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Lost
  No$32 @ 10.0¢
• Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Won
  No$301 @ 86.0¢
• Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Lost
  No$2.4k @ 31.2¢
• Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
  Yes$3.3k @ 76.9¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?Won
  Yes$133 @ 61.0¢
• Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?Won
  Yes$14 @ 68.3¢
• Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?Won
  Yes$20 @ 29.8¢
• Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
  No$64 @ 75.2¢
• Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 69.0¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of September 7 2026?Lost
  No$287 @ 58.0¢
• Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Lost
  No$469 @ 8.0¢
• Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
• Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$10 @ 56.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?Lost
  No$63 @ 5.0¢
• Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
  No$35 @ 7.0¢
• Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Won
  Yes$295 @ 62.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$333 @ 24.0¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$60 @ 34.5¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?Lost
  No$40 @ 38.7¢
• GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 17.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
  No$2.1k @ 86.3¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
  Yes$4 @ 87.0¢
• Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 1.3¢
• Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 17.5 and 20 million views on day 1?Lost
  Yes$25 @ 7.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  No$1.6k @ 81.1¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$2.1k @ 14.6¢
• Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?Lost
  Yes$51 @ 28.0¢
• Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 10 and 15 million views on day 1?Lost
  Yes$82 @ 13.2¢
• Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 52.0¢
• Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Lost
  No$3 @ 60.0¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
  No$176 @ 67.3¢

Current positions

• Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
  No$3.7k @ 73.0¢
• Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  Yes$2.0k @ 18.8¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$1.8k @ 14.6¢
• Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Politics
  Yes$1.6k @ 15.3¢
• Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  No$1.5k @ 81.0¢
• Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Tech
  No$1.2k @ 31.2¢
• Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?Tech
  No$1.1k @ 73.3¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Politics
  Yes$1.0k @ 35.9¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?Politics
  Yes$1.0k @ 45.0¢
• Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$1.0k @ 16.0¢
• Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?Politics
  No$754 @ 60.0¢
• Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$741 @ 71.0¢
• Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Politics
  Yes$740 @ 19.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
  No$732 @ 71.6¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Politics
  Yes$691 @ 17.2¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
  Yes$682 @ 75.0¢
• US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
  Yes$662 @ 38.0¢
• Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?Culture
  Yes$652 @ 25.2¢
• Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
  No$629 @ 2.8¢
• Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?Science
  No$618 @ 50.0¢
• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Politics
  Yes$599 @ 75.1¢
• Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$547 @ 76.0¢
• Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Politics
  No$538 @ 50.0¢
• Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Politics
  No$469 @ 8.0¢
• Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?Politics
  Yes$450 @ 71.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Politics
  Yes$318 @ 34.0¢
• Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
  No$315 @ 27.0¢
• Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
  No$309 @ 22.0¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$309 @ 44.6¢
• Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
  Yes$291 @ 52.0¢