0x8b16…961f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8b16062ee636906fecc9fb071291182f07e4961f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+10.3pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

49% @ 38.6¢

Brier

0.238

Resolved

523

Avg size

$139

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (15/46)	+13%	46
Politics	48% (16/33)	-1%	33
Sports	44% (7/16)	+95%	16
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other46 bets
Hit rate
33% (15/46)
ROI
+13%
Politics33 bets
Hit rate
48% (16/33)
ROI
-1%
Sports16 bets
Hit rate
44% (7/16)
ROI
+95%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

39% hit · 38/98

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$1.6k	62.0¢	Lost
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	$1.3k	74.0¢	Lost
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?	Yes	$50	25.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$999	35.0¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$256	53.5¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$4.4k	58.8¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$183	35.8¢	Lost
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Yes	$595	58.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$255	21.9¢	Lost
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Morocco	$153	41.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$3.2k	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$1.0k	59.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	$140	14.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Yes	$181	14.4¢	Lost
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Under	$506	63.2¢	Won
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	$54	33.0¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$263	17.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$28	0.7¢	Lost
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?	Yes	$150	21.7¢	Lost
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	Yes	$1.1k	28.3¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$606	10.9¢	Lost
Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?	No	$98	28.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	Yes	$200	40.0¢	Lost
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance	Spain	$354	66.0¢	Won
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22?	Yes	$860	86.0¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	No	$195	19.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	33.0¢	Lost
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?	Yes	$70	10.9¢	Lost
James Comey arrested by April 29?	No	$500	34.2¢	Lost
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$117	63.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$1.0k	24.7¢	Lost
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025?	Yes	$300	16.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$1.1k	59.7¢	Won
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Yes	$1.5k	27.3¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$9	10.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$3.0k	54.0¢	Lost
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$2.5k	57.0¢	Won
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Iva Jovic	Iva Jovic	$1.0k	66.0¢	Lost
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Iva Jovic	Jessica Pegula	$505	65.0¢	Won
India military action against Pakistan before June?	No	$227	52.3¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	$1.4k	50.9¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	No	$593	30.0¢	Won
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2.1k	19.8¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	$100	11.0¢	Lost
Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka	Aryna Sabalenka	$509	37.6¢	Lost
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	$254	44.0¢	Won
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	$153	31.0¢	Lost
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	$348	69.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$6.3k	70.6¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2.4k	79.8¢	Won

Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 62.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 74.0¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?Lost
Yes$50 @ 25.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$999 @ 35.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$256 @ 53.5¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$4.4k @ 58.8¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$183 @ 35.8¢
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Won
Yes$595 @ 58.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$255 @ 21.9¢
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to AdvanceWon
Morocco$153 @ 41.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.2k @ 13.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$1.0k @ 59.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$140 @ 14.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Lost
Yes$181 @ 14.4¢
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Won
Under$506 @ 63.2¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Won
No$54 @ 33.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$263 @ 17.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$28 @ 0.7¢
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?Lost
Yes$150 @ 21.7¢
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 28.3¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$606 @ 10.9¢
Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?Lost
No$98 @ 28.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 40.0¢
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceWon
Spain$354 @ 66.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22?Won
Yes$860 @ 86.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?Lost
No$195 @ 19.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 33.0¢
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?Lost
Yes$70 @ 10.9¢
James Comey arrested by April 29?Lost
No$500 @ 34.2¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$117 @ 63.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 24.7¢
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025?Lost
Yes$300 @ 16.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 59.7¢
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 27.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 10.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.0k @ 54.0¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 57.0¢
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Iva JovicLost
Iva Jovic$1.0k @ 66.0¢
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Iva JovicWon
Jessica Pegula$505 @ 65.0¢
India military action against Pakistan before June?Lost
No$227 @ 52.3¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$1.4k @ 50.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Won
No$593 @ 30.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 19.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 11.0¢
Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi OsakaLost
Aryna Sabalenka$509 @ 37.6¢
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?Won
Yes$254 @ 44.0¢
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?Lost
Yes$153 @ 31.0¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Won
Yes$348 @ 69.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$6.3k @ 70.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 79.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Politics	No	$744	37.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + UDMR?	Politics	Yes	$331	44.3¢
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + UDMR?	Politics	Yes	$185	39.5¢
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government?	Politics	No	$104	42.5¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	Politics	No	$87	34.9¢

Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Politics
No$744 @ 37.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + UDMR?Politics
Yes$331 @ 44.3¢
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + UDMR?Politics
Yes$185 @ 39.5¢
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government?Politics
No$104 @ 42.5¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?Politics
No$87 @ 34.9¢