← Smart money
0x8a52…d74c
ProfitableEdge
+20.3pp
ROI
+66%
Win rate
52% @ 31.8¢
Brier
0.206
Resolved
69
Avg size
$75
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 53% (9/17) | +150% | 17 |
| Tech | 40% (4/10) | -12% | 10 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (2/2) | +15% | 2 |
| Politics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other17 bets
- Hit rate
- 53% (9/17)
- ROI
- +150%
- Tech10 bets
- Hit rate
- 40% (4/10)
- ROI
- -12%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +15%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
50% hit · 15/30- Yes$7 @ 90.0¢
- Yes$40 @ 89.6¢
- No$16 @ 90.0¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 70.0¢
- No$1 @ 2.1¢
- Yes$31 @ 36.3¢
- No$6 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$16 @ 2.4¢
- Yes$1.7k @ 33.4¢
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?WonYes$13 @ 85.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 56.4¢
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?WonYes$16 @ 84.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 1.9¢
- Yes$713 @ 44.4¢
- Yes$5 @ 0.2¢
- No$2 @ 1.8¢
- Yes$31 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 73.5¢
- Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$82 @ 10.7¢
- Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?WonNo$14 @ 63.0¢
- No$15 @ 4.2¢
- Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?LostNo$8 @ 3.8¢
- Yes$522 @ 87.8¢
- Yes$76 @ 14.7¢
- Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?LostNo$8 @ 2.3¢
- Yes$20 @ 13.8¢
- Yes$502 @ 88.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026? | Tech | Yes | $1.9k | 90.1¢ |
| Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026? | Tech | Yes | $951 | 77.9¢ |
- Yes$1.9k @ 90.1¢
- Yes$951 @ 77.9¢