0x8a52…d74c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8a524bca5c742485c1ee2056735d1825e45bd74c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+20.3pp

ROI

+66%

Win rate

52% @ 31.8¢

Brier

0.206

Resolved

Avg size

$75

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	53% (9/17)	+150%	17
Tech	40% (4/10)	-12%	10
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+15%	2
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other17 bets
Hit rate
53% (9/17)
ROI
+150%
Tech10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
-12%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+15%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

50% hit · 15/30

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	90.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$40	89.6¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?	No	$16	90.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	70.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?	No	$1	2.1¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?	Yes	$31	36.3¢	Won
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$6	0.2¢	Lost
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$16	2.4¢	Lost
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?	Yes	$1.7k	33.4¢	Won
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?	Yes	$13	85.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?	Yes	$3	50.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?	Yes	$10	56.4¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?	Yes	$16	84.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$10	1.9¢	Lost
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$713	44.4¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$5	0.2¢	Lost
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31?	No	$2	1.8¢	Lost
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31?	Yes	$31	26.0¢	Won
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$20	73.5¢	Won
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30?	Yes	$82	10.7¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?	No	$14	63.0¢	Won
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	$15	4.2¢	Lost
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?	No	$8	3.8¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$522	87.8¢	Won
Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30?	Yes	$76	14.7¢	Lost
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?	No	$8	2.3¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?	Yes	$20	13.8¢	Won
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?	Yes	$502	88.7¢	Won

Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$7 @ 90.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$40 @ 89.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?Won
No$16 @ 90.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 70.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?Lost
No$1 @ 2.1¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?Won
Yes$31 @ 36.3¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 0.2¢
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 2.4¢
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 33.4¢
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Won
Yes$13 @ 85.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?Lost
Yes$3 @ 50.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?Lost
Yes$10 @ 56.4¢
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?Won
Yes$16 @ 84.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.9¢
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$713 @ 44.4¢
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.2¢
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31?Lost
No$2 @ 1.8¢
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31?Won
Yes$31 @ 26.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 73.5¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30?Lost
Yes$82 @ 10.7¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?Won
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?Won
No$14 @ 63.0¢
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?Lost
No$15 @ 4.2¢
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 3.8¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$522 @ 87.8¢
Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30?Lost
Yes$76 @ 14.7¢
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 2.3¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Won
Yes$20 @ 13.8¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?Won
Yes$502 @ 88.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.9k	90.1¢
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$951	77.9¢

Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$1.9k @ 90.1¢
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$951 @ 77.9¢