0x8242…0f3c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8242a0899ad50231a13e4dc401d1bfbbf3f60f3c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.1pp

ROI

+31%

Win rate

45% @ 38.1¢

Brier

0.195

Resolved

827

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	40% (49/124)	+47%	124
Other	47% (36/76)	+28%	76
Geopolitics	39% (7/18)	-21%	18
Sports	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Crypto	60% (3/5)	+120%	5
Tech	100% (2/2)	+109%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+14%	1

Politics124 bets
Hit rate
40% (49/124)
ROI
+47%
Other76 bets
Hit rate
47% (36/76)
ROI
+28%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
39% (7/18)
ROI
-21%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+120%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+109%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%

Track record

42% hit · 98/232

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$37	21.6¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$1	71.0¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	No	$1	72.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1	59.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$24	15.4¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May?	Yes	$1	63.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$2	82.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$1	60.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	Yes	$1	46.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$10	11.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	38.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$2	72.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$3	16.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$26	66.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	0.6¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$6	62.5¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$4	49.4¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?	No	$1	44.0¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	$2	31.7¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$16	76.2¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$22	0.8¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$1	3.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$41	37.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	2.5¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$1	35.0¢	Lost
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	$3	61.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	85.0¢	Won
Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	$2	0.6¢	Lost
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	$2	3.1¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$1	6.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$4	12.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Gaza" in August?	Yes	$1	88.0¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$8	17.3¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$10	57.4¢	Won
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$1	83.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$11	42.1¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$4	40.0¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$8	0.8¢	Lost
Will Trump post "Secret Service" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	$2	82.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$3	56.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$7	13.8¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$1	63.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$3	21.3¢	Won
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$4	18.0¢	Lost

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$37 @ 21.6¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 71.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Won
No$1 @ 72.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 15.4¢
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May?Lost
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$2 @ 82.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$1 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Lost
Yes$1 @ 46.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 11.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 38.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$2 @ 72.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$3 @ 16.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$26 @ 66.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.6¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$6 @ 62.5¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 49.4¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Lost
No$1 @ 44.0¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 31.7¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$16 @ 76.2¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$22 @ 0.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$41 @ 37.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 35.0¢
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Lost
Yes$3 @ 61.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Trump out as President by May 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Lost
No$2 @ 3.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 12.5¢
Will Trump say "Gaza" in August?Lost
Yes$1 @ 88.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$8 @ 17.3¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$10 @ 57.4¢
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?Won
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$1 @ 83.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$11 @ 42.1¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$4 @ 40.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.8¢
Will Trump post "Secret Service" on Truth Social this week?Won
Yes$2 @ 82.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$3 @ 56.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$7 @ 13.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$3 @ 21.3¢
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$4 @ 18.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	45.8¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$8	38.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$7	72.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7	25.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$6	62.7¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$6	39.1¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$5	61.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	15.7¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	Yes	$5	16.4¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$4	66.4¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$4	54.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$3	74.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$3	83.0¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$3	91.5¢
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	27.7¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	62.0¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$2	98.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	—	Yes	$2	27.0¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	54.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$2	28.6¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	38.1¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Sports	Yes	$2	38.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$2	51.0¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$2	12.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	15.6¢
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	10.8¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	12.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	25.0¢
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	32.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	32.0¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 45.8¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$8 @ 38.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$7 @ 72.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$7 @ 25.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$6 @ 62.7¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
Yes$6 @ 39.1¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$5 @ 61.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 15.7¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
Yes$5 @ 16.4¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Politics
Yes$4 @ 66.4¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 54.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 74.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$3 @ 83.0¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$3 @ 91.5¢
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 27.7¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 62.0¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$2 @ 98.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?—
Yes$2 @ 27.0¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 54.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$2 @ 28.6¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 38.1¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Sports
Yes$2 @ 38.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$2 @ 51.0¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
Yes$2 @ 12.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 15.6¢
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 10.8¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢