0x7ecd…d63f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7ecdbfc1e0c511034e49d27e52a0be1fb894d63f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.5pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

54% @ 40.8¢

Brier

0.190

Resolved

127

Avg size

$16

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (15/30)	-13%	30
Politics	64% (7/11)	+49%	11
Sports	50% (4/8)	-7%	8
Tech	67% (2/3)	+12%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other30 bets
Hit rate
50% (15/30)
ROI
-13%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
64% (7/11)
ROI
+49%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-7%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+12%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

53% hit · 28/53

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?	No	$3	54.0¢	Won
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?	Yes	$65	21.3¢	Lost
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-19?	Yes	$4	87.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$13	40.1¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	$238	26.6¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$30	4.5¢	Lost
Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	$15	5.0¢	Lost
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16?	No	$6	39.1¢	Won
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	$18	89.8¢	Won
Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance	Paraguay	$24	8.0¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$108	85.7¢	Won
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$35	1.8¢	Lost
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?	Yes	$22	62.3¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$88	89.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$58	58.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$3	50.0¢	Lost
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?	No	$11	11.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$4	89.2¢	Won
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	$5	76.9¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	$9	43.0¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22?	Yes	$36	44.7¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	$6	88.0¢	Won
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?	No	$4	7.3¢	Lost
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?	Yes	$22	74.0¢	Won
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18?	Yes	$15	17.0¢	Lost
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	6.1¢	Lost
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$4	13.4¢	Lost
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	$4	77.0¢	Lost
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?	No	$27	76.3¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?	No	$4	7.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$544	64.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$5	72.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	$45	74.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?	No	$87	38.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?	Yes	$13	67.0¢	Lost
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$27	88.8¢	Won
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	$19	42.9¢	Lost
Will Unai Simón win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$44	87.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	No	$9	11.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?	Yes	$16	79.9¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	No	$40	79.0¢	Won
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?	Yes	$6	20.0¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 8, 2026?	No	$12	84.0¢	Won
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?	Yes	$49	25.3¢	Won
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31?	Yes	$10	46.0¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?	No	$16	81.0¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	No	$7	22.9¢	Won
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?	No	$48	82.9¢	Won
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?	Yes	$14	89.9¢	Won

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?Won
No$3 @ 54.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?Lost
Yes$65 @ 21.3¢
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-19?Won
Yes$4 @ 87.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
No$13 @ 40.1¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Lost
No$238 @ 26.6¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$30 @ 4.5¢
Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?Lost
Yes$15 @ 5.0¢
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16?Won
No$6 @ 39.1¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?Won
Yes$18 @ 89.8¢
Paraguay vs. France: Team to AdvanceLost
Paraguay$24 @ 8.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$108 @ 85.7¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$35 @ 1.8¢
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$22 @ 62.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$88 @ 89.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$58 @ 58.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$3 @ 50.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?Lost
No$11 @ 11.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 89.2¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
No$5 @ 76.9¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?Lost
No$9 @ 43.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22?Lost
Yes$36 @ 44.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 88.0¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?Lost
No$4 @ 7.3¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?Won
Yes$22 @ 74.0¢
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18?Lost
Yes$15 @ 17.0¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.1¢
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
Yes$4 @ 13.4¢
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-09-20?Lost
Yes$4 @ 77.0¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?Won
No$27 @ 76.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?Lost
No$4 @ 7.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$544 @ 64.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 72.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?Won
Yes$45 @ 74.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?Won
No$87 @ 38.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?Lost
Yes$13 @ 67.0¢
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$27 @ 88.8¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
No$19 @ 42.9¢
Will Unai Simón win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$44 @ 87.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 11.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?Won
Yes$16 @ 79.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Won
No$40 @ 79.0¢
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 20.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 8, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 84.0¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?Won
Yes$49 @ 25.3¢
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 46.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?Lost
No$16 @ 81.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Won
No$7 @ 22.9¢
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?Won
No$48 @ 82.9¢
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?Won
Yes$14 @ 89.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$307	91.7¢
Houthi military action against Mecca by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$101	87.6¢
Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?	Politics	No	$86	94.9¢
Houthi military action against Mecca by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$63	93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$43	86.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$43	95.0¢
NATO dissolves before 2027?	Politics	No	$38	95.7¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	No	$34	86.5¢
Will Iran target Oman by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$34	86.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$32	54.0¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	No	$25	74.9¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$25	95.0¢
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$25	95.7¢
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?	Politics	No	$19	93.0¢
Will Scotland vs. Slovenia end in a draw?	Sports	Yes	$9	59.0¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Politics	No	$7	3.7¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$5	13.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$5	30.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$5	24.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$5	10.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$4	18.4¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$307 @ 91.7¢
Houthi military action against Mecca by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$101 @ 87.6¢
Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?Politics
No$86 @ 94.9¢
Houthi military action against Mecca by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$63 @ 93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$43 @ 86.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$43 @ 95.0¢
NATO dissolves before 2027?Politics
No$38 @ 95.7¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
No$34 @ 86.5¢
Will Iran target Oman by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$34 @ 86.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$32 @ 54.0¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
No$25 @ 74.9¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$25 @ 95.0¢
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$25 @ 95.7¢
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?Politics
No$19 @ 93.0¢
Will Scotland vs. Slovenia end in a draw?Sports
Yes$9 @ 59.0¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Politics
No$7 @ 3.7¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
No$5 @ 13.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$5 @ 30.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 24.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 10.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$4 @ 18.4¢