0x7db8…ed19

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7db8cfe928918e6f7f80a31d98757d97e743ed19
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.1pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

36% @ 30.0¢

Brier

0.155

Resolved

2422

Avg size

$12

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	26% (106/401)	+27%	401
Politics	37% (51/139)	+10%	139
Geopolitics	28% (20/71)	+40%	71
Sports	23% (6/26)	+168%	26
Tech	40% (4/10)	+28%	10
Economy	20% (1/5)	-75%	5
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-5%	3
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other401 bets
Hit rate
26% (106/401)
ROI
+27%
Politics139 bets
Hit rate
37% (51/139)
ROI
+10%
Geopolitics71 bets
Hit rate
28% (20/71)
ROI
+40%
Sports26 bets
Hit rate
23% (6/26)
ROI
+168%
Tech10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
+28%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-75%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-5%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

29% hit · 189/656

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	$182	66.0¢	Won
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	$10	10.5¢	Lost
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	$139	19.6¢	Won
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	$6	15.0¢	Lost
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	$140	35.0¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$13	13.0¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	$18	63.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	No	$718	80.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	Yes	$10	12.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	$8	26.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	$4	9.7¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?	Yes	$5	2.1¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	$3	0.5¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$22	43.0¢	Won
Patriots vs. Bears	Bears	$10	60.0¢	Won
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	$93	26.5¢	Won
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	$50	19.8¢	Lost
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	$60	23.0¢	Lost
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	$0	3.0¢	Lost
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	$2	11.4¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	No	$162	81.0¢	Won
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$19	7.6¢	Lost
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$40	20.0¢	Lost
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$50	18.7¢	Won
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$9	15.5¢	Lost
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$0	5.0¢	Lost
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	$4	13.0¢	Lost
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%?	Yes	$5	24.7¢	Lost
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$5	9.2¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?	Yes	$24	11.2¢	Lost
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.5% on February 28?	Yes	$30	10.3¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$4	43.1¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$32	24.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$67	70.4¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$5	53.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$16	53.4¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in March?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Lost
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	Yes	$1	8.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$8	55.6¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%?	Yes	$5	12.6¢	Lost
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$19	24.5¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$14	70.0¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?	Yes	$3	22.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$37	16.2¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$215	75.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$9	31.0¢	Lost
Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in May?	Yes	$3	23.0¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on April 11?	Yes	$3	0.6¢	Lost
Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	Yes	$1	35.0¢	Lost

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Won
No$182 @ 66.0¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.5¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Won
Yes$139 @ 19.6¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Lost
Yes$6 @ 15.0¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Lost
Yes$140 @ 35.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 13.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Won
No$18 @ 63.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?Won
No$718 @ 80.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 12.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?Won
No$8 @ 26.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?Won
No$4 @ 9.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.5¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$22 @ 43.0¢
Patriots vs. BearsWon
Bears$10 @ 60.0¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?Won
Yes$93 @ 26.5¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?Lost
Yes$50 @ 19.8¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?Lost
Yes$60 @ 23.0¢
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?Lost
Yes$2 @ 11.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Won
No$162 @ 81.0¢
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Lost
Yes$19 @ 7.6¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Lost
Yes$40 @ 20.0¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Won
Yes$50 @ 18.7¢
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Lost
Yes$9 @ 15.5¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Lost
Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?Lost
Yes$4 @ 13.0¢
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%?Lost
Yes$5 @ 24.7¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$5 @ 9.2¢
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?Lost
Yes$24 @ 11.2¢
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.5% on February 28?Lost
Yes$30 @ 10.3¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$4 @ 43.1¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$32 @ 24.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$67 @ 70.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 53.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 53.4¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in March?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.5¢
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$8 @ 55.6¢
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%?Lost
Yes$5 @ 12.6¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$19 @ 24.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$14 @ 70.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?Lost
Yes$3 @ 22.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$37 @ 16.2¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$215 @ 75.7¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$9 @ 31.0¢
Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in May?Lost
Yes$3 @ 23.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on April 11?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.6¢
Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 35.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?	Politics	Yes	$277	32.1¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?	Geopolitics	Yes	$255	36.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	Politics	Yes	$207	20.9¢
Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$160	55.7¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?	Politics	Yes	$137	17.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	Politics	Yes	$126	18.8¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?	Politics	Yes	$126	22.9¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?	Geopolitics	Yes	$116	38.5¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?	Geopolitics	Yes	$87	18.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$62	62.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$56	56.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$56	56.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$51	68.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 0%-3%?	Politics	Yes	$51	22.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 3%-6%?	Politics	Yes	$47	21.5¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$43	21.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$43	43.0¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$40	78.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	Politics	Yes	$38	19.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$37	17.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 0%-3%?	Politics	Yes	$36	28.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Politics	Yes	$33	21.5¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Politics	Yes	$30	15.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?	Politics	Yes	$27	14.9¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$25	28.5¢
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$23	15.2¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$22	14.6¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$21	21.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$16	12.0¢
Will Manchester City be relegated from the Premier League in 2026-27?	Sports	Yes	$15	24.5¢

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?Politics
Yes$277 @ 32.1¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?Geopolitics
Yes$255 @ 36.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?Politics
Yes$207 @ 20.9¢
Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$160 @ 55.7¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?Politics
Yes$137 @ 17.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?Politics
Yes$126 @ 18.8¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?Politics
Yes$126 @ 22.9¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?Geopolitics
Yes$116 @ 38.5¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?Geopolitics
Yes$87 @ 18.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$62 @ 62.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$56 @ 56.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$56 @ 56.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
No$51 @ 68.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 0%-3%?Politics
Yes$51 @ 22.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 3%-6%?Politics
Yes$47 @ 21.5¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$43 @ 21.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election?Politics
Yes$43 @ 43.0¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$40 @ 78.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?Politics
Yes$38 @ 19.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$37 @ 17.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 0%-3%?Politics
Yes$36 @ 28.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?Politics
Yes$33 @ 21.5¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?Politics
Yes$30 @ 15.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?Politics
Yes$27 @ 14.9¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$25 @ 28.5¢
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$23 @ 15.2¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$22 @ 14.6¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$21 @ 21.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$16 @ 12.0¢
Will Manchester City be relegated from the Premier League in 2026-27?Sports
Yes$15 @ 24.5¢