0x7db8…ed19

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7db8cfe928918e6f7f80a31d98757d97e743ed19
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.1pp

ROI

+41%

Win rate

45% @ 33.2¢

Brier

0.184

Resolved

811

Avg size

$13

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (62/187)	+48%	187
Politics	36% (26/72)	-2%	72
Sports	14% (3/21)	+178%	21
Geopolitics	13% (2/16)	-92%	16
Tech	33% (3/9)	+3%	9
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+118%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other187 bets
Hit rate
33% (62/187)
ROI
+48%
Politics72 bets
Hit rate
36% (26/72)
ROI
-2%
Sports21 bets
Hit rate
14% (3/21)
ROI
+178%
Geopolitics16 bets
Hit rate
13% (2/16)
ROI
-92%
Tech9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
+3%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+118%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

31% hit · 97/309

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	$4	13.0¢	Lost
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$5	9.2¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$4	43.1¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$37	16.2¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$215	75.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$9	31.0¢	Lost
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?	Yes	$53	6.8¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$42	16.2¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$161	11.8¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$16	52.3¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$10	47.4¢	Lost
Patriots vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$6	62.0¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$4	26.0¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$53	74.1¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$2	41.2¢	Won
Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	$7	22.5¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?	No	$45	54.9¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?	Yes	$5	45.0¢	Lost
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	$63	10.0¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$49	65.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$3	3.7¢	Lost
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winner	HANJIN BRION Challengers	$4	35.0¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$54	15.3¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	$2	2.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	10.7¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$26	6.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$7	4.0¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$39	16.7¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$253	64.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	$17	33.0¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$17	51.2¢	Won
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier	Gen.G	$5	31.0¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?	No	$135	13.8¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	No	$3	9.8¢	Lost
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$30	6.5¢	Lost
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?	No	$1	7.4¢	Lost
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$37	1.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$39	5.1¢	Lost
Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance	Paraguay	$2	9.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?	Yes	$3	27.3¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$16	2.6¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$19	64.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$10	37.5¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$16	0.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?	No	$3	6.9¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$17	27.6¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$7	4.9¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?	No	$49	39.1¢	Lost

Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?Lost
Yes$4 @ 13.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$5 @ 9.2¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$4 @ 43.1¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$37 @ 16.2¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$215 @ 75.7¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$9 @ 31.0¢
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?Lost
Yes$53 @ 6.8¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$42 @ 16.2¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$161 @ 11.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$16 @ 52.3¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$10 @ 47.4¢
Patriots vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$6 @ 62.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 26.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$53 @ 74.1¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$2 @ 41.2¢
Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw?Lost
Yes$7 @ 22.5¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?Won
No$45 @ 54.9¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?Lost
Yes$5 @ 45.0¢
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Lost
Yes$63 @ 10.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$49 @ 65.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.7¢
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 WinnerWon
HANJIN BRION Challengers$4 @ 35.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$54 @ 15.3¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 10.7¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$26 @ 6.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 4.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$39 @ 16.7¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$253 @ 64.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
No$17 @ 33.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$17 @ 51.2¢
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance QualifierLost
Gen.G$5 @ 31.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Lost
No$135 @ 13.8¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?Lost
No$3 @ 9.8¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$30 @ 6.5¢
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?Lost
No$1 @ 7.4¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$37 @ 1.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$39 @ 5.1¢
Paraguay vs. France: Team to AdvanceLost
Paraguay$2 @ 9.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 27.3¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$16 @ 2.6¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$19 @ 64.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 37.5¢
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$16 @ 0.9¢
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 6.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$17 @ 27.6¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 4.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Lost
No$49 @ 39.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$718	80.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	Politics	No	$300	82.6¢
Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026?	—	No	$258	53.2¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	—	Yes	$243	22.3¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$212	66.8¢
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$192	56.9¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	—	Yes	$176	13.5¢
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?	Politics	No	$155	72.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$124	35.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$102	68.0¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$62	78.6¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$40	24.8¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$37	17.8¢
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$34	22.9¢
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$30	40.7¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$25	28.5¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$22	14.6¢
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$21	18.5¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	—	Yes	$19	26.4¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	—	No	$18	63.8¢
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$13	16.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13	13.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13	9.1¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11	53.0¢
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$10	12.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	12.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$7	14.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$7	26.0¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?	—	Yes	$6	5.0¢
Will there be between 15 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	—	Yes	$4	2.0¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$718 @ 80.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?Politics
No$300 @ 82.6¢
Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026?—
No$258 @ 53.2¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?—
Yes$243 @ 22.3¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$212 @ 66.8¢
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?Geopolitics
No$192 @ 56.9¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?—
Yes$176 @ 13.5¢
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?Politics
No$155 @ 72.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$124 @ 35.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
No$102 @ 68.0¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$62 @ 78.6¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$40 @ 24.8¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$37 @ 17.8¢
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?Politics
Yes$34 @ 22.9¢
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?—
No$30 @ 40.7¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$25 @ 28.5¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$22 @ 14.6¢
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$21 @ 18.5¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?—
Yes$19 @ 26.4¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?—
No$18 @ 63.8¢
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$13 @ 16.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$13 @ 13.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$13 @ 9.1¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$11 @ 53.0¢
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$10 @ 12.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 12.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?Politics
Yes$7 @ 14.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$7 @ 26.0¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?—
Yes$6 @ 5.0¢
Will there be between 15 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?—
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢