0x7c3d…5c6b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.9pp

ROI

+23%

Win rate

39% @ 27.5¢

Brier

0.196

Resolved

1211

Avg size

$78

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	49% (50/102)	+9%	102
Other	54% (31/57)	+10%	57
Sports	41% (11/27)	-24%	27
Geopolitics	33% (9/27)	-15%	27
Crypto	18% (2/11)	+11%	11
Tech	20% (2/10)	-14%	10
Culture	25% (1/4)	-93%	4
Economy	100% (1/1)	+104%	1

Politics102 bets
Hit rate
49% (50/102)
ROI
+9%
Other57 bets
Hit rate
54% (31/57)
ROI
+10%
Sports27 bets
Hit rate
41% (11/27)
ROI
-24%
Geopolitics27 bets
Hit rate
33% (9/27)
ROI
-15%
Crypto11 bets
Hit rate
18% (2/11)
ROI
+11%
Tech10 bets
Hit rate
20% (2/10)
ROI
-14%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-93%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+104%

Track record

45% hit · 107/239

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$102	2.5¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$465	11.4¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$4.9k	47.2¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$179	89.7¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$1.8k	19.1¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$328	1.2¢	Lost
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	No	$84	83.6¢	Won
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	$16	15.6¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$12	5.9¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	$3.4k	58.5¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	Yes	$52	24.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?	No	$170	3.7¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 6 hours?	No	$919	87.4¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?	No	$67	4.5¢	Lost
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 15, 2026?	Yes	$17	3.4¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$2	2.1¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$2.3k	84.1¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	8.7¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$36	1.2¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$5.4k	50.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$13.6k	40.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$179	89.7¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$337	3.3¢	Lost
NYPost cover features $Laptop by September 23?	No	$144	81.0¢	Won
NYPost cover features $Laptop by September 23?	Yes	$1	9.8¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$10	2.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	No	$6.9k	89.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	Yes	$885	40.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$335	0.7¢	Lost
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 9, 2026?	Yes	$8	89.0¢	Won
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$12	6.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	$1.7k	79.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	14.6¢	Lost
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 3 minutes long?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Iran target Oman by August 31, 2026?	No	$1	83.0¢	Won
Will Iran target Oman by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$9	6.7¢	Lost
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$23	3.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat Rocket League within 13 hours?	No	$6	1.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	$411	49.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	38.8¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	49.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.6k	81.5¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	Yes	$759	6.2¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	Yes	$4.3k	58.8¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Xi Jinping in August?	No	$208	17.6¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Xi Jinping in August?	Yes	$1.1k	88.4¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on August 19?	Yes	$193	1.8¢	Lost
Jynxzi vs Speed: who wins in Fortnite?	Jynxzi	$6	28.0¢	Lost

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$102 @ 2.5¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$465 @ 11.4¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$4.9k @ 47.2¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$179 @ 89.7¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 19.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$328 @ 1.2¢
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?Won
No$84 @ 83.6¢
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?Lost
Yes$16 @ 15.6¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$12 @ 5.9¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Won
No$3.4k @ 58.5¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Lost
Yes$52 @ 24.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Lost
No$170 @ 3.7¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 6 hours?Won
No$919 @ 87.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?Lost
No$67 @ 4.5¢
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 3.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Won
No$2.3k @ 84.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 8.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$36 @ 1.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$5.4k @ 50.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$13.6k @ 40.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$179 @ 89.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$337 @ 3.3¢
NYPost cover features $Laptop by September 23?Won
No$144 @ 81.0¢
NYPost cover features $Laptop by September 23?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.8¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Lost
No$6.9k @ 89.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Won
Yes$885 @ 40.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$335 @ 0.7¢
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 9, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 89.0¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 79.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 14.6¢
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 3 minutes long?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Iran target Oman by August 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 83.0¢
Will Iran target Oman by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 6.7¢
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$23 @ 3.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat Rocket League within 13 hours?Lost
No$6 @ 1.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$411 @ 49.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 38.8¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 49.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 81.5¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?Lost
Yes$759 @ 6.2¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Lost
Yes$4.3k @ 58.8¢
Will Trump praise Xi Jinping in August?Lost
No$208 @ 17.6¢
Will Trump praise Xi Jinping in August?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 88.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on August 19?Lost
Yes$193 @ 1.8¢
Jynxzi vs Speed: who wins in Fortnite?Lost
Jynxzi$6 @ 28.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$100.0k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$100.0k	50.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$8.2k	97.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$5.9k	67.9¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4.7k	91.2¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$3.2k	18.2¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.8k	88.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.7k	44.2¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.1k	92.6¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$2.1k	25.1¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.8k	91.0¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.6k	95.5¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$1.6k	91.0¢
NATO dissolves before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.5k	93.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$800	8.0¢
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	Politics	No	$726	96.2¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$701	90.2¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$620	31.0¢
Will Elon register any party before 2027?	Politics	No	$597	82.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$584	56.6¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$560	2.7¢
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	Politics	No	$512	93.2¢
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?	Politics	No	$501	95.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$445	74.2¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$440	22.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$421	63.7¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$360	17.7¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$337	16.9¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	Yes	$335	17.7¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$327	1.1¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$100.0k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$100.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$8.2k @ 97.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$5.9k @ 67.9¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$4.7k @ 91.2¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$3.2k @ 18.2¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$2.8k @ 88.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.7k @ 44.2¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$2.1k @ 92.6¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Crypto
Yes$2.1k @ 25.1¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.8k @ 91.0¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?Politics
No$1.6k @ 95.5¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$1.6k @ 91.0¢
NATO dissolves before 2027?Politics
No$1.5k @ 93.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$800 @ 8.0¢
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?Politics
No$726 @ 96.2¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$701 @ 90.2¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$620 @ 31.0¢
Will Elon register any party before 2027?Politics
No$597 @ 82.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$584 @ 56.6¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$560 @ 2.7¢
Will Venezuela become 51st state?Politics
No$512 @ 93.2¢
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?Politics
No$501 @ 95.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$445 @ 74.2¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
Yes$440 @ 22.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$421 @ 63.7¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$360 @ 17.7¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
Yes$337 @ 16.9¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
Yes$335 @ 17.7¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$327 @ 1.1¢