0x7982…8a4e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x79822d286bb33f7f21741f5638cbf7276dac8a4e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.9pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

44% @ 36.5¢

Brier

0.199

Resolved

214

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (18/33)	-25%	33
Politics	59% (10/17)	-23%	17
Geopolitics	50% (4/8)	+42%	8
Sports	20% (1/5)	+204%	5
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+37%	2
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other33 bets
Hit rate
55% (18/33)
ROI
-25%
Politics17 bets
Hit rate
59% (10/17)
ROI
-23%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
+42%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
+204%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+37%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

51% hit · 34/67

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$2	28.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	27.0¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$2	41.0¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$2	3.0¢	Lost
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31?	No	$1	90.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	39.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$2	88.0¢	Won
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$2	12.7¢	Lost
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	$4	67.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$67	23.6¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$10	84.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$2	40.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$10	23.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$23	45.1¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	2.4¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$2	78.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$2	21.0¢	Won
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$0	2.6¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$2	58.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$2	17.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" in Corpus Christi on Friday?	Yes	$2	76.2¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$2	51.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$6	24.2¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$2	19.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation?	No	$2	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$14	54.8¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	53.3¢	Won
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	No	$6	69.3¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	$2	53.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$2	55.0¢	Won
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$12	7.0¢	Lost
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$13	7.4¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	No	$2	7.0¢	Lost
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$2	69.0¢	Lost
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	$8	30.6¢	Won
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$12	34.3¢	Lost
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	$45	21.3¢	Won
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?	No	$6	58.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Washington DC" or "DC" during the State of the Union address?	Yes	$1	80.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during Cabinet meeting on March 26?	Yes	$2	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Macro" or "Hegseth" during College Football Roundtable?	No	$1	89.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	46.0¢	Won
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	3.1¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$4	31.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	$2	66.0¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	$20	27.7¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	No	$2	40.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$8	46.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Egg" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$4	71.7¢	Won

Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 28.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 27.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$2 @ 41.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.0¢
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31?Won
No$1 @ 90.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 39.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$2 @ 88.0¢
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 12.7¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Won
Yes$4 @ 67.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$67 @ 23.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$10 @ 84.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 40.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 23.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$23 @ 45.1¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$2 @ 78.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 21.0¢
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.6¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$2 @ 58.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$2 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" in Corpus Christi on Friday?Won
Yes$2 @ 76.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 51.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 24.2¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 19.0¢
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$2 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$14 @ 54.8¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 53.3¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 69.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
No$2 @ 53.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$2 @ 55.0¢
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 7.0¢
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 7.4¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 7.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$2 @ 69.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Won
Yes$8 @ 30.6¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$12 @ 34.3¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Won
Yes$45 @ 21.3¢
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?Won
No$6 @ 58.8¢
Will Trump say "Washington DC" or "DC" during the State of the Union address?Won
Yes$1 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during Cabinet meeting on March 26?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump say "Macro" or "Hegseth" during College Football Roundtable?Won
No$1 @ 89.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 46.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$6 @ 3.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 31.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Won
No$2 @ 66.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Lost
No$20 @ 27.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Lost
No$2 @ 40.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$8 @ 46.7¢
Will Trump say "Egg" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$4 @ 71.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$18	96.0¢
Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections?	Politics	Yes	$16	88.0¢
Will Stefanos Kasselakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?	Politics	No	$2	98.9¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$2	67.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$2	54.0¢
Will Kyriakos Velopoulos be the next Prime Minister of Greece?	Politics	No	$2	97.0¢
Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?	Politics	Yes	$2	43.0¢
Will Zoe Konstantopoulou be the next Prime Minister of Greece?	Politics	No	$1	95.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$0	39.0¢

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$18 @ 96.0¢
Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections?Politics
Yes$16 @ 88.0¢
Will Stefanos Kasselakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?Politics
No$2 @ 98.9¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 67.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$2 @ 54.0¢
Will Kyriakos Velopoulos be the next Prime Minister of Greece?Politics
No$2 @ 97.0¢
Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?Politics
Yes$2 @ 43.0¢
Will Zoe Konstantopoulou be the next Prime Minister of Greece?Politics
No$1 @ 95.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$0 @ 39.0¢