← Smart money
0x7818…d185
SharpEdge
+6.5pp
ROI
+47%
Win rate
38% @ 31.2¢
Brier
0.146
Resolved
3419
Avg size
$106
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 56% (88/156) | +25% | 156 |
| Other | 54% (29/54) | -12% | 54 |
| Sports | 29% (14/49) | +138% | 49 |
| Geopolitics | 64% (18/28) | -9% | 28 |
| Crypto | 57% (4/7) | +18% | 7 |
| Economy | 100% (4/4) | +44% | 4 |
| Culture | 33% (1/3) | -94% | 3 |
| Tech | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Business | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics156 bets
- Hit rate
- 56% (88/156)
- ROI
- +25%
- Other54 bets
- Hit rate
- 54% (29/54)
- ROI
- -12%
- Sports49 bets
- Hit rate
- 29% (14/49)
- ROI
- +138%
- Geopolitics28 bets
- Hit rate
- 64% (18/28)
- ROI
- -9%
- Crypto7 bets
- Hit rate
- 57% (4/7)
- ROI
- +18%
- Economy4 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (4/4)
- ROI
- +44%
- Culture3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- -94%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Business1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
52% hit · 158/303- No$557 @ 75.0¢
- Yes$241 @ 96.6¢
- Yes$57 @ 57.0¢
- Yes$392 @ 56.0¢
- No$296 @ 56.0¢
- No$52 @ 33.0¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 63.0¢
- Yes$42 @ 28.0¢
- No$437 @ 44.3¢
- Yes$329 @ 40.4¢
- Yes$880 @ 44.0¢
- No$281 @ 67.7¢
- Yes$29 @ 70.0¢
- No$1.1k @ 87.0¢
- No$72 @ 58.0¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 43.1¢
- No$563 @ 39.0¢
- Yes$43 @ 58.0¢
- Yes$583 @ 35.0¢
- Yes$465 @ 15.4¢
- No$229 @ 60.0¢
- Yes$281 @ 63.0¢
- Yes$886 @ 54.0¢
- Yes$309 @ 78.5¢
- Yes$301 @ 71.0¢
- No$1.1k @ 31.1¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 51.1¢
- No$220 @ 71.0¢
- Yes$107 @ 40.0¢
- No$28 @ 95.4¢
- No$91 @ 57.0¢
- Yes$57 @ 57.0¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 69.0¢
- No$763 @ 76.3¢
- No$870 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$409 @ 62.7¢
- No$2.0k @ 78.6¢
- Yes$139 @ 32.1¢
- No$533 @ 91.0¢
- Yes$91 @ 28.4¢
- No$308 @ 77.0¢
- No$509 @ 96.6¢
- No$390 @ 78.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 58.0¢
- No$67 @ 58.0¢
- Yes$14.9k @ 99.6¢
- Yes$160 @ 80.0¢
- Yes$12 @ 0.3¢
- Yes$155 @ 1.9¢
- No$26 @ 55.3¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- Modi out by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$7.1k @ 92.2¢
- Yes$4.5k @ 69.1¢
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?GeopoliticsNo$2.8k @ 94.7¢
- No$2.6k @ 86.3¢
- No$2.5k @ 82.0¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 83.0¢
- Yoon out of custody before 2027?PoliticsNo$1.8k @ 90.4¢
- Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?GeopoliticsNo$1.7k @ 94.2¢
- No$1.5k @ 85.9¢
- No$1.4k @ 96.5¢
- No$1.3k @ 90.0¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 46.8¢
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?GeopoliticsNo$840 @ 84.0¢
- No$768 @ 76.8¢
- Yes$657 @ 94.9¢
- No$568 @ 93.7¢
- No$550 @ 94.0¢
- Yes$529 @ 17.6¢
- Yes$520 @ 40.0¢
- No$474 @ 94.8¢
- No$468 @ 93.7¢
- Yes$310 @ 62.0¢
- Yes$304 @ 20.3¢
- Kash Patel out by December 31?PoliticsYes$298 @ 69.2¢
- No$258 @ 86.0¢
- No$244 @ 90.0¢
- No$231 @ 86.8¢
- No$220 @ 82.0¢
- Yes$190 @ 76.0¢
- No$180 @ 90.0¢