0x71ed…d338

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x71edffd0d70a1da823ff07a3c6fc81457294d338
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+19.2pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

68% @ 49.1¢

Brier

0.254

Resolved

644

Avg size

$531

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	26% (5/19)	-92%	19
Politics	31% (4/13)	+75%	13
Tech	43% (3/7)	-42%	7
Sports	17% (1/6)	-23%	6
Economy	17% (1/6)	-96%	6
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-85%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other19 bets
Hit rate
26% (5/19)
ROI
-92%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
31% (4/13)
ROI
+75%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-42%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-23%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-96%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-85%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

28% hit · 15/54

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$926	79.2¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	$8	74.0¢	Lost
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$196	48.0¢	Won
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$1.0k	64.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$973	0.5¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$11.5k	17.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$33.0k	78.3¢	Lost
Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?	Yes	$5	15.0¢	Lost
Will 53 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?	Yes	$8	12.7¢	Lost
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	$6	6.0¢	Lost
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	$27	40.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	$136	67.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$100	9.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	90.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	$680	81.4¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	$50	30.1¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$93.8k	68.2¢	Lost
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Yes	$8	15.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$123.4k	43.9¢	Won
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	No	$28	27.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$7.0k	25.2¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$55.1k	76.2¢	Won
Will 52 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?	Yes	$2	44.9¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	$144	47.0¢	Lost
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Yes	$10	12.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$9.9k	32.2¢	Lost
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4?	No	$102	71.1¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$85	6.3¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$246	25.0¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?	No	$11	11.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Yes	$128	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$100	12.3¢	Lost
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	No	$74	33.7¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$553	18.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	$1.0k	56.1¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?	No	$2	1.7¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	No	$883	89.4¢	Won
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	$100	48.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$220	22.0¢	Lost
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	$501	81.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$581	56.0¢	Won
Will Trump's remarks not air?	Yes	$2	1.3¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$14.0k	88.7¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027?	No	$2	28.0¢	Lost
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$193	12.4¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	$144	28.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	$7	1.6¢	Lost

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$926 @ 79.2¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?Lost
No$8 @ 74.0¢
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$196 @ 48.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 64.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$973 @ 0.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$11.5k @ 17.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$33.0k @ 78.3¢
Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?Lost
Yes$5 @ 15.0¢
Will 53 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?Lost
Yes$8 @ 12.7¢
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Won
Yes$27 @ 40.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
Yes$136 @ 67.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$100 @ 9.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 90.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$680 @ 81.4¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$50 @ 30.1¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$93.8k @ 68.2¢
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?Lost
Yes$8 @ 15.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$123.4k @ 43.9¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?Lost
No$28 @ 27.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$7.0k @ 25.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$55.1k @ 76.2¢
Will 52 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?Lost
Yes$2 @ 44.9¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Lost
Yes$144 @ 47.0¢
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?Lost
Yes$10 @ 12.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$9.9k @ 32.2¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4?Won
No$102 @ 71.1¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$85 @ 6.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$246 @ 25.0¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 11.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Won
Yes$128 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$100 @ 12.3¢
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?Lost
No$74 @ 33.7¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$553 @ 18.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 56.1¢
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?Lost
No$2 @ 1.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Won
No$883 @ 89.4¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Lost
No$100 @ 48.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$220 @ 22.0¢
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Won
No$501 @ 81.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$581 @ 56.0¢
Will Trump's remarks not air?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$14.0k @ 88.7¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027?Lost
No$2 @ 28.0¢
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$193 @ 12.4¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?Lost
Yes$144 @ 28.0¢
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17.2k	45.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$9.1k	65.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$6.7k	45.0¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?	Economy	No	$6.1k	88.4¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	Economy	No	$4.1k	77.4¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	Economy	No	$3.9k	56.2¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.1k	74.5¢
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$1.9k	18.8¢
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Crypto	No	$1.6k	94.0¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?	Economy	No	$920	90.0¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	Other	Yes	$488	84.7¢
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$480	37.6¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$273	23.9¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$204	36.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?	Politics	No	$196	81.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?	Politics	No	$173	74.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$158	62.2¢
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?	Crypto	No	$125	80.1¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$71	71.0¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$56	24.7¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$45	45.0¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$43	13.4¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$34	5.3¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$28	28.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$22	42.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$20	30.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?	Politics	No	$13	87.7¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Crypto	Yes	$11	64.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$10	19.0¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$10	7.0¢

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$17.2k @ 45.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$9.1k @ 65.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$6.7k @ 45.0¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?Economy
No$6.1k @ 88.4¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Economy
No$4.1k @ 77.4¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Economy
No$3.9k @ 56.2¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$3.1k @ 74.5¢
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$1.9k @ 18.8¢
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?Crypto
No$1.6k @ 94.0¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Economy
No$920 @ 90.0¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Other
Yes$488 @ 84.7¢
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$480 @ 37.6¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$273 @ 23.9¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Crypto
Yes$204 @ 36.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?Politics
No$196 @ 81.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?Politics
No$173 @ 74.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$158 @ 62.2¢
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?Crypto
No$125 @ 80.1¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$71 @ 71.0¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
No$56 @ 24.7¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$45 @ 45.0¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$43 @ 13.4¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$34 @ 5.3¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$28 @ 28.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$22 @ 42.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$20 @ 30.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?Politics
No$13 @ 87.7¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Crypto
Yes$11 @ 64.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$10 @ 19.0¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$10 @ 7.0¢