0x71ed…d338

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x71edffd0d70a1da823ff07a3c6fc81457294d338
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.6pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

77% @ 69.8¢

Brier

0.112

Resolved

3270

Avg size

$775

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (65/165)	+4%	165
Politics	47% (8/17)	+44%	17
Economy	38% (3/8)	-71%	8
Crypto	25% (2/8)	-94%	8
Tech	43% (3/7)	-42%	7
Sports	17% (1/6)	-23%	6
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other165 bets
Hit rate
39% (65/165)
ROI
+4%
Politics17 bets
Hit rate
47% (8/17)
ROI
+44%
Economy8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
-71%
Crypto8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
-94%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-42%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-23%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

38% hit · 82/213

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	$55.1k	99.2¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$22.8k	74.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?	No	$8.9k	89.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	No	$218	32.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?	No	$18	5.0¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?	No	$3	65.0¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	$138.8k	84.6¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$144.5k	38.2¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	No	$3	35.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$24	78.9¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$926	79.2¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	No	$115	79.5¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	$8	74.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?	Yes	$4	1.9¢	Lost
Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?	Yes	$41	44.4¢	Won
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	$75	6.5¢	Lost
Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025?	No	$4	85.0¢	Won
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.6% by March 31?	No	$8	83.0¢	Won
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?	Yes	$19	0.6¢	Lost
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28?	Yes	$335	63.1¢	Lost
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$134	20.8¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	No	$393	64.0¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $180 in July?	Yes	$7	52.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$196	48.0¢	Won
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	$261	8.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	No	$12	2.4¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	Yes	$10	4.9¢	Lost
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?	No	$2.0k	89.7¢	Won
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$5.0k	42.8¢	Won
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in August?	Yes	$17	17.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$1.0k	64.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$165.0k	86.3¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 19?	Yes	$30	10.0¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$1	10.4¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$973	0.5¢	Lost
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?	No	$741	63.9¢	Lost
Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?	Yes	$143	57.0¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025?	Yes	$99	72.7¢	Won
Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision?	Yes	$109	79.1¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$48	39.9¢	Lost
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14?	Yes	$6	59.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$18.6k	80.1¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$11.5k	17.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?	Yes	$3	2.4¢	Lost
Atlas global browser market share 1%+ on December 31?	Yes	$25	4.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$20.3k	88.8¢	Won
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	No	$5	21.0¢	Lost

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Won
No$55.1k @ 99.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$22.8k @ 74.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?Won
No$8.9k @ 89.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Lost
No$218 @ 32.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?Lost
No$18 @ 5.0¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?Won
No$3 @ 65.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Won
No$138.8k @ 84.6¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$144.5k @ 38.2¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Lost
No$3 @ 35.7¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?Won
Yes$24 @ 78.9¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$926 @ 79.2¢
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Lost
No$115 @ 79.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?Lost
No$8 @ 74.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.9¢
Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?Won
Yes$41 @ 44.4¢
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Lost
Yes$75 @ 6.5¢
Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025?Won
No$4 @ 85.0¢
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.6% by March 31?Won
No$8 @ 83.0¢
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?Lost
Yes$19 @ 0.6¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28?Lost
Yes$335 @ 63.1¢
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?Won
Yes$134 @ 20.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Lost
No$393 @ 64.0¢
Will Solana reach $180 in July?Won
Yes$7 @ 52.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$196 @ 48.0¢
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$261 @ 8.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Lost
No$12 @ 2.4¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.9¢
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?Won
No$2.0k @ 89.7¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Won
Yes$5.0k @ 42.8¢
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in August?Lost
Yes$17 @ 17.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 64.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$165.0k @ 86.3¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 19?Lost
Yes$30 @ 10.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$973 @ 0.5¢
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?Lost
No$741 @ 63.9¢
Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?Lost
Yes$143 @ 57.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025?Won
Yes$99 @ 72.7¢
Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision?Lost
Yes$109 @ 79.1¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$48 @ 39.9¢
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14?Lost
Yes$6 @ 59.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$18.6k @ 80.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$11.5k @ 17.7¢
Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.4¢
Atlas global browser market share 1%+ on December 31?Lost
Yes$25 @ 4.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$20.3k @ 88.8¢
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Lost
No$5 @ 21.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$29.5k	98.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$9.1k	65.8¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	Economy	No	$8.8k	73.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$6.7k	45.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.1k	74.5¢
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$1.9k	18.8¢
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Crypto	No	$1.8k	94.2¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	53.7¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?	Economy	No	$920	90.0¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	Economy	No	$517	77.4¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	Other	Yes	$488	84.7¢
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$480	37.6¢
Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	Economy	Yes	$305	57.3¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$204	36.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?	Politics	No	$187	81.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?	Politics	No	$173	74.0¢
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?	Crypto	No	$125	80.1¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$71	71.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$45	45.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$28	28.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$22	42.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$20	30.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?	Politics	No	$13	87.7¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Crypto	Yes	$11	64.0¢
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$9	85.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	Economy	Yes	$5	50.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	86.0¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4	81.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$4	39.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$4	76.0¢

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
No$29.5k @ 98.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$9.1k @ 65.8¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Economy
No$8.8k @ 73.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$6.7k @ 45.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$3.1k @ 74.5¢
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$1.9k @ 18.8¢
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?Crypto
No$1.8k @ 94.2¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 53.7¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Economy
No$920 @ 90.0¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Economy
No$517 @ 77.4¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Other
Yes$488 @ 84.7¢
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$480 @ 37.6¢
Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?Economy
Yes$305 @ 57.3¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Crypto
Yes$204 @ 36.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?Politics
No$187 @ 81.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?Politics
No$173 @ 74.0¢
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?Crypto
No$125 @ 80.1¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$71 @ 71.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$45 @ 45.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$28 @ 28.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$22 @ 42.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$20 @ 30.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?Politics
No$13 @ 87.7¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Crypto
Yes$11 @ 64.0¢
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$9 @ 85.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?Economy
Yes$5 @ 50.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 86.0¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 81.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$4 @ 39.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$4 @ 76.0¢