0x6fe6…3fd4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6fe693dd64ca3d864c6c4dcc8fa6bfbb34923fd4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.7pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

57% @ 46.3¢

Brier

0.191

Resolved

200

Avg size

$11

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	56% (19/34)	+4%	34
Sports	52% (12/23)	+42%	23
Other	64% (9/14)	+17%	14
Culture	78% (7/9)	+36%	9
Tech	33% (2/6)	+29%	6
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	-24%	3

Politics34 bets
Hit rate
56% (19/34)
ROI
+4%
Sports23 bets
Hit rate
52% (12/23)
ROI
+42%
Other14 bets
Hit rate
64% (9/14)
ROI
+17%
Culture9 bets
Hit rate
78% (7/9)
ROI
+36%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+29%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-24%

Track record

57% hit · 51/89

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Spread: Broncos (-4.5)	Broncos	$5	51.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	$104	7.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	$81	75.1¢	Won
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	No	$6	55.0¢	Lost
Spread: 49ers (-7.5)	Commanders	$5	52.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$10	52.3¢	Won
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$84	73.6¢	Won
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	$86	36.5¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$100	39.8¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$73	65.7¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	$17	60.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	Yes	$194	85.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 11?	Yes	$15	70.0¢	Won
Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski	Francesco Passaro	$6	52.0¢	Won
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	$5	55.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	No	$5	39.0¢	Lost
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	$23	71.0¢	Lost
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	$25	51.1¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	$226	33.8¢	Lost
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 23?	Yes	$9	84.0¢	Won
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$10	50.0¢	Lost
Patriots vs. Bears	Patriots	$5	41.0¢	Lost
Cowboys vs. Packers	Cowboys	$5	50.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 21?	Yes	$5	87.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 16 and 19 million views on day 1?	No	$5	75.0¢	Won
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	Yes	$8	58.0¢	Won
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?	Yes	$10	74.2¢	Lost
Spread: Patriots (-7.5)	Patriots	$5	47.0¢	Lost
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28?	Yes	$5	57.0¢	Lost
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?	Yes	$10	89.0¢	Won
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Yes	$41	55.8¢	Won
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	Yes	$171	51.3¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$10	16.9¢	Lost
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	$23	51.7¢	Won
Browns vs. Titans	Titans	$5	46.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$5	19.0¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	$10	66.0¢	Won
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$9	15.4¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$5	50.0¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$14	29.5¢	Won
Spread: Saints (-1.5)	Saints	$5	48.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	Yes	$8	52.0¢	Won
UFC 329: Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley (Featherweight, Prelims)	Luke Riley	$10	67.0¢	Won
US x China tariff agreement by September 30?	Yes	$43	79.0¢	Won
Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	Yes	$6	70.0¢	Won
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	$6	14.0¢	Won
Will Warsh say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during October Press Conference?	Yes	$16	41.9¢	Won
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$62	73.6¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$15	60.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	$33	14.9¢	Lost

Spread: Broncos (-4.5)Won
Broncos$5 @ 51.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Lost
No$104 @ 7.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Won
Yes$81 @ 75.1¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to ScoreLost
No$6 @ 55.0¢
Spread: 49ers (-7.5)Won
Commanders$5 @ 52.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$10 @ 52.3¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$84 @ 73.6¢
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Lost
No$86 @ 36.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$100 @ 39.8¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$73 @ 65.7¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Won
Yes$17 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?Won
Yes$194 @ 85.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 11?Won
Yes$15 @ 70.0¢
Swedish Open, Qualification: Francesco Passaro vs Maks KasnikowskiWon
Francesco Passaro$6 @ 52.0¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25?Won
Yes$5 @ 55.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 39.0¢
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
No$23 @ 71.0¢
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$25 @ 51.1¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Lost
Yes$226 @ 33.8¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 23?Won
Yes$9 @ 84.0¢
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
Patriots vs. BearsLost
Patriots$5 @ 41.0¢
Cowboys vs. PackersLost
Cowboys$5 @ 50.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 21?Won
Yes$5 @ 87.0¢
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 16 and 19 million views on day 1?Won
No$5 @ 75.0¢
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 58.0¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 74.2¢
Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Lost
Patriots$5 @ 47.0¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28?Lost
Yes$5 @ 57.0¢
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 89.0¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Won
Yes$41 @ 55.8¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?Won
Yes$171 @ 51.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$10 @ 16.9¢
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?Won
Yes$23 @ 51.7¢
Browns vs. TitansLost
Titans$5 @ 46.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 19.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 66.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 15.4¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 50.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$14 @ 29.5¢
Spread: Saints (-1.5)Won
Saints$5 @ 48.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?Won
Yes$8 @ 52.0¢
UFC 329: Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley (Featherweight, Prelims)Won
Luke Riley$10 @ 67.0¢
US x China tariff agreement by September 30?Won
Yes$43 @ 79.0¢
Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?Won
Yes$6 @ 70.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Won
Yes$6 @ 14.0¢
Will Warsh say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during October Press Conference?Won
Yes$16 @ 41.9¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
No$62 @ 73.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$15 @ 60.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Lost
No$33 @ 14.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$29	18.9¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$28	60.0¢
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Culture	No	$25	69.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	39.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17	70.0¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$14	34.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$11	59.0¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$11	10.4¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$10	27.0¢
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Culture	Yes	$10	84.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$7	35.6¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$6	33.0¢
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	Culture	Yes	$5	53.0¢
Will The Art of Loving (Olivia Dean) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Culture	Yes	$5	15.7¢
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #2 US song this week?	Culture	Yes	$5	40.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	35.0¢
Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Culture	Yes	$5	39.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$5	94.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$5	14.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$5	64.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$5	71.0¢
Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?	Culture	No	$5	84.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $75M and $100M by November 30?	Culture	Yes	$5	34.0¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Culture	No	$2	95.0¢
US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	Politics	Yes	$2	78.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$0	22.0¢

Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
No$29 @ 18.9¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$28 @ 60.0¢
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?Culture
No$25 @ 69.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 39.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$17 @ 70.0¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$14 @ 34.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$11 @ 59.0¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Politics
Yes$11 @ 10.4¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$10 @ 27.0¢
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?Culture
Yes$10 @ 84.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 35.6¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$6 @ 33.0¢
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?Culture
Yes$5 @ 53.0¢
Will The Art of Loving (Olivia Dean) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Culture
Yes$5 @ 15.7¢
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #2 US song this week?Culture
Yes$5 @ 40.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 35.0¢
Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?Culture
Yes$5 @ 39.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$5 @ 94.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
Yes$5 @ 14.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$5 @ 64.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 71.0¢
Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?Culture
No$5 @ 84.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $75M and $100M by November 30?Culture
Yes$5 @ 34.0¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?Culture
No$2 @ 95.0¢
US imports Russian diesel by November 15?Politics
Yes$2 @ 78.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$0 @ 22.0¢