0x6e9a…f3bb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6e9a6afde1e8bd4a0c7bf2809cf87fe14c00f3bb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.7pp

ROI

+35%

Win rate

42% @ 34.6¢

Brier

0.151

Resolved

2954

Avg size

$63

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	52% (82/157)	+19%	157
Other	48% (59/123)	+10%	123
Tech	33% (4/12)	-50%	12
Sports	33% (4/12)	+653%	12
Geopolitics	38% (3/8)	-63%	8
Crypto	63% (5/8)	-58%	8
Culture	60% (3/5)	-10%	5

Politics157 bets
Hit rate
52% (82/157)
ROI
+19%
Other123 bets
Hit rate
48% (59/123)
ROI
+10%
Tech12 bets
Hit rate
33% (4/12)
ROI
-50%
Sports12 bets
Hit rate
33% (4/12)
ROI
+653%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
-63%
Crypto8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
-58%
Culture5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
-10%

Track record

49% hit · 160/325

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	No	$255	98.2¢	Won
Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by September 30?	No	$60	99.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in October?	Yes	$198	99.0¢	Won
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Up	$300	99.9¢	Won
Spain snap election called by October 31?	Yes	$205	99.4¢	Won
Spain snap election called in 2026?	Yes	$210	99.7¢	Won
Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	$893	98.4¢	Won
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$131	99.8¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	Yes	$57	6.7¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$39	95.3¢	Won
Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$51	95.9¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?	Yes	$7	2.1¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$882	99.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	Yes	$22	90.1¢	Won
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$2.4k	87.7¢	Won
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	$187	93.5¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$337	55.1¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$2.0k	32.9¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$483	48.9¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$59	61.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$951	33.3¢	Lost
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner	HANJIN BRION	$88	88.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$1	77.0¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	$73	7.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$97	67.0¢	Won
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$239	28.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$6.4k	48.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.7k	17.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	Yes	$5	88.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will FC Carl Zeiss Jena win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$111	35.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$322	85.8¢	Won
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	No	$14	81.0¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$0	1.1¢	Lost
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$240	25.4¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	No	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$114	2.0¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?	Yes	$185	63.0¢	Won
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	No	$79	78.5¢	Lost
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$11	22.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$9.6k	73.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$605	26.7¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$89	59.0¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$192	25.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$129	70.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	$391	10.5¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	$397	89.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$347	70.2¢	Won

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?Won
No$255 @ 98.2¢
Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by September 30?Won
No$60 @ 99.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in October?Won
Yes$198 @ 99.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?Won
Up$300 @ 99.9¢
Spain snap election called by October 31?Won
Yes$205 @ 99.4¢
Spain snap election called in 2026?Won
Yes$210 @ 99.7¢
Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026?Won
Yes$893 @ 98.4¢
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$131 @ 99.8¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?Lost
Yes$57 @ 6.7¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$39 @ 95.3¢
Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$51 @ 95.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.1¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$882 @ 99.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?Won
Yes$22 @ 90.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 87.7¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Won
No$187 @ 93.5¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$337 @ 55.1¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 32.9¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$483 @ 48.9¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$59 @ 61.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$951 @ 33.3¢
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 WinnerWon
HANJIN BRION$88 @ 88.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 77.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Lost
No$73 @ 7.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$97 @ 67.0¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$239 @ 28.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$6.4k @ 48.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.7k @ 17.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?Won
Yes$5 @ 88.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will FC Carl Zeiss Jena win on 2026-08-01?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$111 @ 35.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$322 @ 85.8¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Won
No$14 @ 81.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 1.1¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$240 @ 25.4¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Lost
No$2 @ 0.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$114 @ 2.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?Won
Yes$185 @ 63.0¢
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$79 @ 78.5¢
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$11 @ 22.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$9.6k @ 73.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$605 @ 26.7¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$89 @ 59.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$192 @ 25.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$129 @ 70.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Lost
No$391 @ 10.5¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Won
Yes$397 @ 89.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$347 @ 70.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$894	89.4¢
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	Geopolitics	No	$647	92.4¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$624	66.4¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$319	93.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$276	92.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$260	13.0¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$132	88.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Tech	No	$55	61.3¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.1¢

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$894 @ 89.4¢
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?Geopolitics
No$647 @ 92.4¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$624 @ 66.4¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$319 @ 93.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$276 @ 92.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$260 @ 13.0¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Politics
Yes$132 @ 88.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?Tech
No$55 @ 61.3¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢