0x6c05…c270

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other118 bets

  Hit rate

  61% (72/118)

  ROI

  -3%

• Politics102 bets

  Hit rate

  73% (74/102)

  ROI

  +8%

• Tech24 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (16/24)

  ROI

  +10%

• Geopolitics20 bets

  Hit rate

  70% (14/20)

  ROI

  +10%

• Culture6 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (2/6)

  ROI

  -22%

• Crypto6 bets

  Hit rate

  83% (5/6)

  ROI

  +15%

• Sports4 bets

  Hit rate

  75% (3/4)

  ROI

  -36%

• Science1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +28%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +65%

• Business1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +19%

• Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
  No$3 @ 67.3¢
• Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
  No$24 @ 76.1¢
• Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  No$11 @ 89.2¢
• Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$1 @ 16.0¢
• Will LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 6.4¢
• Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$11 @ 86.4¢
• Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
  No$4 @ 76.0¢
• Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
  No$10 @ 67.3¢
• Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
  No$16 @ 78.3¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 11.0¢
• Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$19 @ 82.0¢
• Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
  No$3 @ 34.0¢
• Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 23.0¢
• Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$8 @ 80.0¢
• Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31?Lost
  No$7 @ 52.9¢
• Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?Lost
  No$3 @ 62.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 18.0¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
  No$21 @ 87.0¢
• Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
  No$13 @ 89.0¢
• Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$13 @ 77.6¢
• Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
  No$54 @ 77.4¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Won
  No$15 @ 88.0¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$26 @ 53.6¢
• Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$7 @ 86.0¢
• Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$10 @ 86.1¢
• US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
  No$4 @ 79.0¢
• Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
  Yes$2 @ 45.0¢
• Kurds declare independence from Iran?Won
  No$4 @ 89.0¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
  No$3 @ 62.0¢
• Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?Lost
  No$10 @ 57.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$39 @ 62.2¢
• Will Putin visit China by May 31?Lost
  No$2 @ 22.0¢
• Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?Won
  No$3 @ 60.0¢
• Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$3 @ 58.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 22.0¢
• Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
  No$13 @ 68.9¢
• Will Drake attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Won
  No$25 @ 85.7¢
• Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?Won
  No$15 @ 69.0¢
• Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Lost
  No$2 @ 32.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$7 @ 69.0¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
  Yes$10 @ 69.8¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$42 @ 83.9¢
• Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
  No$4 @ 30.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
  No$18 @ 87.0¢
• Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
  No$15 @ 73.3¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 53.3¢
• Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?Lost
  No$18 @ 80.2¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
  Yes$9 @ 22.8¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
  No$8 @ 71.0¢

Current positions

• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$127 @ 77.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$107 @ 85.5¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$57 @ 57.0¢
• Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
  Yes$39 @ 65.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?Geopolitics
  Yes$27 @ 51.2¢
• Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$26 @ 80.5¢
• Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $215B by December 31?Tech
  Yes$23 @ 81.0¢
• Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?Politics
  Yes$22 @ 91.0¢
• Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
  No$22 @ 89.0¢
• Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?Politics
  No$22 @ 88.0¢
• Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$20 @ 90.8¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
  Yes$18 @ 72.1¢
• Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  Yes$17 @ 73.8¢
• Cuban regime falls in 2026?Politics
  No$14 @ 89.9¢
• Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
  No$13 @ 82.0¢
• Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$12 @ 41.0¢
• Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?Culture
  Yes$12 @ 84.3¢
• Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $215B by December 31?Tech
  No$10 @ 71.9¢
• Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  No$9 @ 73.0¢
• Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$9 @ 66.0¢
• Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Politics
  No$9 @ 83.0¢
• Will Jon Ossoff announce a presidential run by March 31, 2027?Politics
  No$8 @ 78.0¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
  Yes$7 @ 87.0¢
• Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?Tech
  No$6 @ 41.0¢
• Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?Politics
  No$6 @ 88.3¢
• Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
  No$6 @ 70.5¢
• Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Economy
  No$5 @ 93.8¢
• Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$5 @ 95.0¢
• Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?Politics
  Yes$4 @ 76.0¢
• Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Tech
  No$3 @ 84.0¢