0x676c…ce51

Specialization by sphere

• Other23 bets

  Hit rate

  57% (13/23)

  ROI

  +12%

• Politics7 bets

  Hit rate

  86% (6/7)

  ROI

  +41%

• Geopolitics4 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (2/4)

  ROI

  -9%

• Sports3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  +117%

• Economy2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  -37%

• Tech1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +95%

• Science1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +1221%

• Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?Lost
  No$47 @ 52.0¢
• Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?Lost
  No$24 @ 16.5¢
• Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% in September?Lost
  No$71 @ 24.0¢
• Will the highest wind gust at Boston Logan be 50 kt or more?Won
  Yes$7 @ 7.6¢
• Will Eva Bender win the next Hannover Region presidential election?Lost
  No$20 @ 24.0¢
• Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in July?Won
  No$22 @ 41.9¢
• Will Linke win 40 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
  Yes$40 @ 37.0¢
• Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  Yes$7 @ 67.0¢
• Will no final Senate confirmation vote be held for Todd Blanche as Attorney General by December 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 0.9¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
  No$20 @ 39.0¢
• Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 20 and 23 inclusive?Won
  Yes$35 @ 45.9¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
  No$89 @ 39.3¢
• Will Warsh say "Integrity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Won
  No$42 @ 62.1¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
  No$15 @ 52.6¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?Won
  No$8 @ 76.0¢
• Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?Lost
  No$41 @ 63.0¢
• Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
  No$51 @ 76.0¢
• Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?Won
  No$70 @ 68.5¢
• Ukraine strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 15, 2026?Won
  Yes$45 @ 71.7¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$38 @ 84.0¢
• Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%?Won
  No$68 @ 45.8¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
  No$21 @ 71.0¢
• Will AfD win 32-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
  Yes$62 @ 25.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
  Yes$50 @ 49.0¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?Won
  No$14 @ 72.0¢
• NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?Lost
  Yes$31 @ 34.0¢
• Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats?Won
  No$81 @ 79.9¢
• Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$49 @ 39.0¢
• Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?Lost
  No$13 @ 17.6¢
• Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?Won
  No$30 @ 61.6¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$30 @ 51.2¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?Won
  No$24 @ 81.0¢
• Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in September?Won
  No$62 @ 74.0¢
• Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 29.0¢
• Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?Won
  No$24 @ 61.8¢
• Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Won
  No$25 @ 49.0¢
• Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?Lost
  No$51 @ 42.1¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?Lost
  Yes$60 @ 57.6¢
• Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?Lost
  No$26 @ 37.9¢
• Fnatic merger/acquisition announced by September 1, 2026?Won
  No$42 @ 41.0¢
• Will Trump pardon anyone by July 31?Won
  No$20 @ 66.0¢

Current positions

• Will the CAQ win 25-29 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Politics
  No$101 @ 74.0¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Politics
  No$81 @ 36.0¢
• Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Geopolitics
  No$79 @ 66.0¢
• Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?Politics
  No$77 @ 26.4¢
• Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September?Economy
  No$75 @ 59.0¢
• Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?Economy
  No$63 @ 69.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  No$60 @ 51.3¢
• Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?Politics
  No$59 @ 33.8¢
• Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-04 House election by 30% or more?Politics
  Yes$52 @ 51.1¢
• Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?Politics
  No$51 @ 40.8¢
• 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?Geopolitics
  Yes$50 @ 20.7¢
• Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?Economy
  No$47 @ 51.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$42 @ 59.0¢
• Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by October 30, 2026?Politics
  No$40 @ 66.0¢
• Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?Economy
  No$39 @ 55.0¢
• SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?Tech
  No$30 @ 25.2¢
• Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?Tech
  Yes$29 @ 21.6¢
• Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?Economy
  No$28 @ 34.2¢