0x6560…e164

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6560abb717a8e5f3afaacd1a31e9c03eed71e164
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.4pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

37% @ 30.6¢

Brier

0.171

Resolved

3456

Avg size

$54

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	46% (155/336)	+18%	336
Tech	40% (8/20)	+15%	20
Politics	33% (6/18)	+1%	18
Sports	54% (7/13)	+14%	13
Economy	14% (1/7)	-27%	7
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	+35%	3
Culture	67% (2/3)	-16%	3
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+38%	1

Other336 bets
Hit rate
46% (155/336)
ROI
+18%
Tech20 bets
Hit rate
40% (8/20)
ROI
+15%
Politics18 bets
Hit rate
33% (6/18)
ROI
+1%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
54% (7/13)
ROI
+14%
Economy7 bets
Hit rate
14% (1/7)
ROI
-27%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+35%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-16%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+38%

Track record

45% hit · 181/401

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Spread: Florida Gators (-35.5)	Florida Gators	$1.3k	49.4¢	Won
Spread: Florida Gators (-35.5)	Prairie View A&M Panthers	$500	50.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 9-15?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 9-15?	Yes	$549	76.5¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$62	60.9¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$675	63.3¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$228	32.4¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$87	7.7¢	Lost
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	No	$5	33.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$138	69.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$54	18.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
Will there be 8 or more major space weather events this week?	Yes	$22	3.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on March 31?	No	$17	84.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on March 31?	Yes	$201	6.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)	Yes	$8	43.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 16?	No	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$63	11.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color on May 9, 2026?	Yes	$8	19.7¢	Won
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?	No	$202	59.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?	Yes	$405	8.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $600b and $610b on April 30?	Yes	$38	5.0¢	Lost
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-12.5)	Utah State Aggies	$90	54.0¢	Won
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01?	Yes	$17	16.0¢	Lost
Will "Holy Shit" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 15)	No	$10	80.0¢	Won
Will Solana reach $85 on May 4?	No	$8	0.1¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$70	35.0¢	Lost
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,050 (LOW) by April 30?	Yes	$4	38.0¢	Won
Will Trump post "Charlie" or "Kirk" this week on Truth Social?	Yes	$16	29.8¢	Won
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha	G2 Esports	$69	69.0¢	Lost
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 145.5	Over	$480	49.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on March 31?	No	$18	89.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on March 31?	Yes	$101	5.3¢	Lost
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$28	3.5¢	Lost
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?	No	$82	81.5¢	Won
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?	Yes	$70	29.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Moon" or "Astronaut" during TPUSA events on April 17?	Yes	$12	30.7¢	Won
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	$413	79.3¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$432	86.4¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$12.0k	74.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$24	8.0¢	Lost
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 13?	Yes	$22	64.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?	Yes	$619	13.4¢	Won
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5)	Akron Zips	$903	48.5¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?	Yes	$582	57.8¢	Won
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$482	18.6¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$150	75.0¢	Won
Will Clavicular be unbanned from Kick by March 31?	Yes	$348	80.3¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$105	21.0¢	Lost

Spread: Florida Gators (-35.5)Won
Florida Gators$1.3k @ 49.4¢
Spread: Florida Gators (-35.5)Lost
Prairie View A&M Panthers$500 @ 50.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 9-15?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 9-15?Won
Yes$549 @ 76.5¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$62 @ 60.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$675 @ 63.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$228 @ 32.4¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$87 @ 7.7¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Lost
No$5 @ 33.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$138 @ 69.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$54 @ 18.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will there be 8 or more major space weather events this week?Lost
Yes$22 @ 3.1¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on March 31?Won
No$17 @ 84.0¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on March 31?Lost
Yes$201 @ 6.7¢
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)Won
Yes$8 @ 43.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 16?Lost
No$1 @ 0.7¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$63 @ 11.5¢
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color on May 9, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 19.7¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?Won
No$202 @ 59.0¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?Lost
Yes$405 @ 8.3¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $600b and $610b on April 30?Lost
Yes$38 @ 5.0¢
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-12.5)Won
Utah State Aggies$90 @ 54.0¢
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01?Lost
Yes$17 @ 16.0¢
Will "Holy Shit" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 15)Won
No$10 @ 80.0¢
Will Solana reach $85 on May 4?Lost
No$8 @ 0.1¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$70 @ 35.0¢
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,050 (LOW) by April 30?Won
Yes$4 @ 38.0¢
Will Trump post "Charlie" or "Kirk" this week on Truth Social?Won
Yes$16 @ 29.8¢
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group AlphaLost
G2 Esports$69 @ 69.0¢
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 145.5Lost
Over$480 @ 49.0¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on March 31?Won
No$18 @ 89.0¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on March 31?Lost
Yes$101 @ 5.3¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$28 @ 3.5¢
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? Won
No$82 @ 81.5¢
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? Lost
Yes$70 @ 29.9¢
Will Trump say "Moon" or "Astronaut" during TPUSA events on April 17?Won
Yes$12 @ 30.7¢
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Won
No$413 @ 79.3¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$432 @ 86.4¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$12.0k @ 74.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 8.0¢
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 13?Won
Yes$22 @ 64.0¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?Won
Yes$619 @ 13.4¢
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5)Lost
Akron Zips$903 @ 48.5¢
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?Won
Yes$582 @ 57.8¢
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$482 @ 18.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$150 @ 75.0¢
Will Clavicular be unbanned from Kick by March 31?Won
Yes$348 @ 80.3¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$105 @ 21.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	Tech	No	$8.0k	97.0¢
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?	Politics	No	$4.9k	90.7¢
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$542	47.0¢
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$313	39.2¢
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$108	38.2¢
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$76	51.6¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Politics	Yes	$56	14.1¢
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$56	11.2¢
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$48	12.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?	Tech	No	$46	30.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$44	4.8¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Politics	No	$34	85.5¢
Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$23	2.8¢
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?	Culture	No	$22	47.6¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?	Tech	No	$18	96.9¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$15	76.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?	Tech	No	$13	89.6¢
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	Science	Yes	$9	10.3¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Tech	No	$7	7.5¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$7	82.8¢
Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?	Tech	Yes	$5	8.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	25.0¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	24.0¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Politics	Yes	$4	14.0¢
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	Science	Yes	$3	5.2¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$1	59.3¢
Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	8.0¢

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?Tech
No$8.0k @ 97.0¢
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?Politics
No$4.9k @ 90.7¢
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$542 @ 47.0¢
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?Tech
Yes$313 @ 39.2¢
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Tech
Yes$108 @ 38.2¢
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Tech
Yes$76 @ 51.6¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?Politics
Yes$56 @ 14.1¢
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Tech
Yes$56 @ 11.2¢
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$48 @ 12.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?Tech
No$46 @ 30.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Tech
Yes$44 @ 4.8¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Politics
No$34 @ 85.5¢
Christopher Luxon out by September 30?Politics
Yes$23 @ 2.8¢
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?Culture
No$22 @ 47.6¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?Tech
No$18 @ 96.9¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$15 @ 76.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?Tech
No$13 @ 89.6¢
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Science
Yes$9 @ 10.3¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?Tech
No$7 @ 7.5¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$7 @ 82.8¢
Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?Tech
Yes$5 @ 8.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 25.0¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 24.0¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Politics
Yes$4 @ 14.0¢
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Science
Yes$3 @ 5.2¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$1 @ 59.3¢
Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 8.0¢