0x64b4…b21e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x64b47229f7b9340ccbd52768959fb55ac148b21e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+15.6pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

59% @ 43.6¢

Brier

0.228

Resolved

329

Avg size

$134

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	49% (37/75)	+3%	75
Other	49% (20/41)	-23%	41
Geopolitics	31% (4/13)	-1%	13
Tech	45% (5/11)	+117%	11
Sports	50% (3/6)	+20%	6
Culture	50% (1/2)	-1%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+243%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics75 bets
Hit rate
49% (37/75)
ROI
+3%
Other41 bets
Hit rate
49% (20/41)
ROI
-23%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
31% (4/13)
ROI
-1%
Tech11 bets
Hit rate
45% (5/11)
ROI
+117%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+20%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-1%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+243%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

47% hit · 71/150

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	No	$112	24.0¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$115	47.9¢	Lost
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	Yes	$7	36.0¢	Lost
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	$228	27.8¢	Lost
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	No	$1.7k	85.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$420	69.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$180	36.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$120	6.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	$27	8.9¢	Lost
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$180	18.0¢	Lost
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$700	73.0¢	Lost
Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	$2.3k	71.0¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$1.8k	60.3¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$630	63.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	$778	82.6¢	Won
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 20?	No	$74	34.8¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz by October 31?	Yes	$135	89.3¢	Won
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	$6	4.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	$1.5k	65.6¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by October 31?	Yes	$127	84.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Pig" or "Piggy" this week?	No	$48	69.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$59	47.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$350	45.6¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$41	37.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$389	77.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$282	11.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$140	43.8¢	Lost
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?	No	$215	33.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 18, 2026?	No	$11	39.5¢	Lost
Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?	No	$224	65.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$344	35.3¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$64	32.0¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	$246	82.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	Yes	$29	68.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$900	29.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?	Yes	$71	84.4¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$255	39.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$198	33.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$75	63.5¢	Won
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	29.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$339	54.7¢	Won
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$37	54.9¢	Won
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026?	No	$28	2.3¢	Lost
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Yes	$1.4k	85.4¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$439	43.7¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$1.5k	42.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$626	32.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$2.6k	88.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	$17	56.8¢	Lost

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Lost
No$112 @ 24.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$115 @ 47.9¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 36.0¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Lost
Yes$228 @ 27.8¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 85.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$420 @ 69.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$180 @ 36.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$120 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?Lost
No$27 @ 8.9¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$180 @ 18.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
No$700 @ 73.0¢
Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
No$2.3k @ 71.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 60.3¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$630 @ 63.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Won
Yes$778 @ 82.6¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 20?Lost
No$74 @ 34.8¢
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz by October 31?Won
Yes$135 @ 89.3¢
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?Lost
No$6 @ 4.2¢
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?Won
No$1.5k @ 65.6¢
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by October 31?Won
Yes$127 @ 84.7¢
Will Trump say "Pig" or "Piggy" this week?Won
No$48 @ 69.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$59 @ 47.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$350 @ 45.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$41 @ 37.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$389 @ 77.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$282 @ 11.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$140 @ 43.8¢
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Lost
No$215 @ 33.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 18, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 39.5¢
Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$224 @ 65.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$344 @ 35.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$64 @ 32.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Lost
Yes$246 @ 82.0¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Won
Yes$29 @ 68.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$900 @ 29.2¢
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?Won
Yes$71 @ 84.4¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$255 @ 39.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$198 @ 33.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$75 @ 63.5¢
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 29.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$339 @ 54.7¢
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
No$37 @ 54.9¢
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$28 @ 2.3¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 85.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$439 @ 43.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$1.5k @ 42.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$626 @ 32.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$2.6k @ 88.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Lost
No$17 @ 56.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$3.2k	69.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$2.8k	70.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$422	20.9¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$352	44.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$310	40.3¢
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$195	81.6¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$191	30.9¢
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Politics	No	$98	32.8¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$79	8.2¢
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Tech	No	$70	64.6¢
Will Josh Downs have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	No	$59	51.0¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$56	7.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$50	37.0¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$33	21.7¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?	Politics	Yes	$32	7.6¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	Tech	Yes	$15	23.5¢
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$13	4.4¢
Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	Yes	$9	4.3¢
Will Josh Shapiro be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?	Politics	Yes	$7	3.6¢
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3	7.1¢

Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$3.2k @ 69.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$2.8k @ 70.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics
Yes$422 @ 20.9¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$352 @ 44.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$310 @ 40.3¢
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?Politics
Yes$195 @ 81.6¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$191 @ 30.9¢
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?Politics
No$98 @ 32.8¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$79 @ 8.2¢
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?Tech
No$70 @ 64.6¢
Will Josh Downs have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
No$59 @ 51.0¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?Politics
Yes$56 @ 7.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
Yes$50 @ 37.0¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$33 @ 21.7¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?Politics
Yes$32 @ 7.6¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Tech
Yes$15 @ 23.5¢
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by October 31?Politics
Yes$13 @ 4.4¢
Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
Yes$9 @ 4.3¢
Will Josh Shapiro be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?Politics
Yes$7 @ 3.6¢
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?Tech
Yes$3 @ 7.1¢