0x64b4…b21e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x64b47229f7b9340ccbd52768959fb55ac148b21e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+15.8pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

57% @ 41.4¢

Brier

0.237

Resolved

243

Avg size

$129

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (26/51)	-13%	51
Politics	52% (15/29)	+49%	29
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Sports	50% (1/2)	+45%	2
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+75%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+243%	1

Other51 bets
Hit rate
51% (26/51)
ROI
-13%
Politics29 bets
Hit rate
52% (15/29)
ROI
+49%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+45%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+75%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+243%

Track record

50% hit · 44/88

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 18?	Yes	$30	10.0¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?	Yes	$10	18.6¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$59	47.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$350	45.6¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$389	77.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$282	11.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$140	43.8¢	Lost
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?	No	$215	33.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 18, 2026?	No	$11	39.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$344	35.3¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$64	32.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	Yes	$29	68.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$900	29.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?	Yes	$71	84.4¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$255	39.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$198	33.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$75	63.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$339	54.7¢	Won
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$37	54.9¢	Won
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026?	No	$28	2.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$439	43.7¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$1.5k	42.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$626	32.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$2.6k	88.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	$17	56.8¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	Yes	$48	20.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$50	10.3¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	Yes	$15	6.1¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	Yes	$19	3.1¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?	Yes	$9	4.0¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?	Yes	$397	49.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Motor City" during Michigan remarks?	No	$17	67.0¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	$17	42.9¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?	No	$30	29.9¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?	Yes	$166	85.9¢	Lost
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$214	55.3¢	Lost
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	$1.3k	59.5¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Yes	$4	6.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$21	13.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$729	27.3¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$3.0k	73.5¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?	Yes	$30	15.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	$514	73.4¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?	No	$37	8.3¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$331	21.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 16, 2026?	Yes	$11	8.2¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	No	$1.1k	76.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$310	62.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$275	57.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	$310	60.8¢	Won

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 18?Lost
Yes$30 @ 10.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?Won
Yes$10 @ 18.6¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$59 @ 47.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$350 @ 45.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$389 @ 77.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$282 @ 11.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$140 @ 43.8¢
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Lost
No$215 @ 33.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 18, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 39.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$344 @ 35.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$64 @ 32.0¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Won
Yes$29 @ 68.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$900 @ 29.2¢
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?Won
Yes$71 @ 84.4¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$255 @ 39.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$198 @ 33.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$75 @ 63.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$339 @ 54.7¢
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
No$37 @ 54.9¢
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$28 @ 2.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$439 @ 43.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$1.5k @ 42.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$626 @ 32.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$2.6k @ 88.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Lost
No$17 @ 56.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Won
Yes$48 @ 20.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 10.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Lost
Yes$15 @ 6.1¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Lost
Yes$19 @ 3.1¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?Lost
Yes$9 @ 4.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?Lost
Yes$397 @ 49.3¢
Will Trump say "Motor City" during Michigan remarks?Won
No$17 @ 67.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Won
Yes$17 @ 42.9¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?Won
No$30 @ 29.9¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?Lost
Yes$166 @ 85.9¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$214 @ 55.3¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 59.5¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Lost
Yes$4 @ 6.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 13.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$729 @ 27.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 73.5¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?Lost
Yes$30 @ 15.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Won
Yes$514 @ 73.4¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Lost
No$37 @ 8.3¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$331 @ 21.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 8.2¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Won
No$1.1k @ 76.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$310 @ 62.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$275 @ 57.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Won
Yes$310 @ 60.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$422	20.9¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$352	44.0¢
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Tech	No	$218	64.6¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$191	30.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$180	36.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$150	29.9¢
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?	—	No	$149	88.9¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$134	25.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$133	16.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$120	6.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$99	33.0¢
Will Josh Downs have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	—	No	$59	51.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?	—	Yes	$58	43.5¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$50	37.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$22	7.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	—	Yes	$19	67.0¢
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$7	2.8¢
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3	7.1¢

Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics
Yes$422 @ 20.9¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$352 @ 44.0¢
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?Tech
No$218 @ 64.6¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$191 @ 30.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?—
Yes$180 @ 36.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$150 @ 29.9¢
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?—
No$149 @ 88.9¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Business
Yes$134 @ 25.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$133 @ 16.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$120 @ 6.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?Politics
Yes$99 @ 33.0¢
Will Josh Downs have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?—
No$59 @ 51.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?—
Yes$58 @ 43.5¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
Yes$50 @ 37.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$22 @ 7.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?—
Yes$19 @ 67.0¢
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$7 @ 2.8¢
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?Tech
Yes$3 @ 7.1¢