0x6319…789d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6319970bcfe40ae655c18c0d140fe3ce3c6d789d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.5pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

69% @ 62.5¢

Brier

0.196

Resolved

442

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	74% (25/34)	+10%	34
Politics	57% (4/7)	+10%	7
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	-76%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+42%	1

Other34 bets
Hit rate
74% (25/34)
ROI
+10%
Politics7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
+10%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-76%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+42%

Track record

69% hit · 31/45

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	38.9¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$6	43.7¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$20	68.5¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$14	78.3¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$100	69.1¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$4	35.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	52.0¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$43	55.2¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$35	23.6¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$75	37.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$19	55.0¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$22	79.7¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$134	51.3¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$401	84.6¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$23	16.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$12	39.1¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$81	76.3¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	$56	82.4¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$70	63.8¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	No	$5	88.3¢	Won
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	$26	83.0¢	Won
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$25	66.8¢	Lost
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	$5	69.0¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$79	70.3¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$87	71.1¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$282	49.9¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$245	76.1¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	$62	77.4¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	Yes	$97	67.4¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$74	43.4¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$31	51.8¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$188	60.4¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	No	$16	63.1¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	$71	71.3¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	Yes	$8	53.4¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	$59	62.8¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$22	52.5¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?	No	$12	76.3¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	$87	53.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?	Yes	$9	67.6¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	No	$7	86.8¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	No	$117	77.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?	Yes	$3	64.0¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	Yes	$29	70.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?	Yes	$5	71.0¢	Won

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 38.9¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$6 @ 43.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$20 @ 68.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$14 @ 78.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$100 @ 69.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$4 @ 35.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 52.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$43 @ 55.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$35 @ 23.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$75 @ 37.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$19 @ 55.0¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$22 @ 79.7¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$134 @ 51.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$401 @ 84.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$23 @ 16.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
No$12 @ 39.1¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$81 @ 76.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Won
Yes$56 @ 82.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$70 @ 63.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
No$5 @ 88.3¢
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Won
No$26 @ 83.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$25 @ 66.8¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Won
Yes$5 @ 69.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$79 @ 70.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$87 @ 71.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$282 @ 49.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$245 @ 76.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Won
Yes$62 @ 77.4¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Lost
Yes$97 @ 67.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$74 @ 43.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$31 @ 51.8¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$188 @ 60.4¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Won
No$16 @ 63.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
Yes$71 @ 71.3¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Won
Yes$8 @ 53.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Won
No$59 @ 62.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$22 @ 52.5¢
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?Won
No$12 @ 76.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Won
Yes$87 @ 53.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?Won
Yes$9 @ 67.6¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 86.8¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Won
No$117 @ 77.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?Won
Yes$3 @ 64.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Lost
Yes$29 @ 70.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?Won
Yes$5 @ 71.0¢

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