0x60a9…5a71

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.1pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

42% @ 40.4¢

Brier

0.170

Resolved

3311

Avg size

$415

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	44% (247/557)	+7%	557
Other	47% (46/98)	+21%	98
Geopolitics	54% (38/71)	+22%	71
Tech	50% (3/6)	+15%	6
Culture	75% (3/4)	+27%	4
Sports	50% (1/2)	+136%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+29%	1

Politics557 bets
Hit rate
44% (247/557)
ROI
+7%
Other98 bets
Hit rate
47% (46/98)
ROI
+21%
Geopolitics71 bets
Hit rate
54% (38/71)
ROI
+22%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+15%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+27%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+136%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+29%

Track record

46% hit · 339/739

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	$723	56.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	$1.1k	76.7¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	$1.3k	64.3¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	$11.9k	75.6¢	Won
Will Miroslava Ferancová be the next Mayor of Olomouc?	No	$80	18.1¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 6?	Yes	$90	1.8¢	Lost
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?	No	$8	89.0¢	Won
Will Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez win the next Chiclayo mayoral elections?	No	$105	63.8¢	Won
Will Jorge Hilton Flores Bazán win the next Piura mayoral elections?	No	$209	74.2¢	Won
Les Wexner charged by June 30?	No	$1.3k	89.5¢	Won
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	$576	88.5¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	$29	88.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	$297	8.0¢	Lost
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?	No	$752	98.8¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	$1.5k	85.1¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	$439	88.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$670	28.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$1.7k	53.1¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?	No	$177	27.8¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$6.2k	88.0¢	Won
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$108	7.3¢	Lost
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?	No	$430	73.3¢	Won
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?	Yes	$71	6.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	$2.2k	91.3¢	Won
Will Mattias Ottosson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Östergötland?	Yes	$431	64.0¢	Won
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	$3.7k	19.6¢	Lost
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$954	22.3¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?	Yes	$2.0k	92.0¢	Won
Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	Yes	$850	41.5¢	Won
Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	Yes	$1.5k	40.0¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?	Yes	$43	1.9¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?	Yes	$43	1.9¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?	Yes	$43	1.9¢	Lost
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	$4.9k	65.2¢	Won
Will Republicans win the Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska Senate seats?	No	$13	66.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	$2.6k	30.0¢	Lost
Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?	No	$1.9k	54.0¢	Lost
Will Democrats win the Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire Senate seats?	No	$789	30.8¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	No	$200	5.5¢	Lost
Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	No	$133	80.3¢	Won
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$6.0k	64.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$6.0k	63.0¢	Won
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	No	$2	0.9¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	$2.4k	38.3¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	$3.4k	36.8¢	Lost
Will Roman Zarzycký be the next Mayor of Plzeň?	Yes	$11	70.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	No	$2.3k	88.1¢	Won
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	$1000	78.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	$900	42.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	$6.6k	59.5¢	Won

Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?Lost
Yes$723 @ 56.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 76.7¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Lost
No$1.3k @ 64.3¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Won
No$11.9k @ 75.6¢
Will Miroslava Ferancová be the next Mayor of Olomouc?Won
No$80 @ 18.1¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 6?Lost
Yes$90 @ 1.8¢
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?Won
No$8 @ 89.0¢
Will Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez win the next Chiclayo mayoral elections?Won
No$105 @ 63.8¢
Will Jorge Hilton Flores Bazán win the next Piura mayoral elections?Won
No$209 @ 74.2¢
Les Wexner charged by June 30?Won
No$1.3k @ 89.5¢
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Won
No$576 @ 88.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Won
No$29 @ 88.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Lost
Yes$297 @ 8.0¢
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?Won
No$752 @ 98.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 85.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?Won
Yes$439 @ 88.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$670 @ 28.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 53.1¢
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?Lost
No$177 @ 27.8¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$6.2k @ 88.0¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$108 @ 7.3¢
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?Won
No$430 @ 73.3¢
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?Lost
Yes$71 @ 6.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 91.3¢
Will Mattias Ottosson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Östergötland?Won
Yes$431 @ 64.0¢
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?Lost
No$3.7k @ 19.6¢
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$954 @ 22.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 92.0¢
Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?Won
Yes$850 @ 41.5¢
Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 40.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?Lost
Yes$43 @ 1.9¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?Lost
Yes$43 @ 1.9¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?Lost
Yes$43 @ 1.9¢
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?Won
No$4.9k @ 65.2¢
Will Republicans win the Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska Senate seats?Won
No$13 @ 66.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$2.6k @ 30.0¢
Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?Lost
No$1.9k @ 54.0¢
Will Democrats win the Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire Senate seats?Lost
No$789 @ 30.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$200 @ 5.5¢
Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?Won
No$133 @ 80.3¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
No$6.0k @ 64.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$6.0k @ 63.0¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Lost
No$2 @ 0.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 38.3¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Lost
No$3.4k @ 36.8¢
Will Roman Zarzycký be the next Mayor of Plzeň?Won
Yes$11 @ 70.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Won
No$2.3k @ 88.1¢
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Lost
Yes$1000 @ 78.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Won
No$900 @ 42.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Won
No$6.6k @ 59.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$14.0k	84.4¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$11.9k	75.6¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$11.1k	77.3¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$10.7k	83.8¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$10.3k	87.4¢
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by March 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$9.5k	74.8¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$9.2k	41.4¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$8.1k	55.4¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$7.0k	20.6¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$5.7k	36.7¢
Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Politics	No	$5.1k	69.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4.0k	28.4¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$3.5k	30.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Geopolitics	Yes	$3.0k	94.3¢
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$3.0k	68.3¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.8k	28.2¢
Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$2.8k	85.0¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.7k	12.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Geopolitics	No	$2.6k	33.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	58.7¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	No	$2.5k	46.5¢
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.2k	64.8¢
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	30.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.0k	92.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	11.0¢
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.9k	83.4¢
Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?	Politics	No	$1.9k	62.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in November?	Other	Yes	$1.6k	28.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$1.5k	65.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	No	$1.3k	9.9¢

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$14.0k @ 84.4¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$11.9k @ 75.6¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$11.1k @ 77.3¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$10.7k @ 83.8¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$10.3k @ 87.4¢
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by March 31, 2027?Politics
No$9.5k @ 74.8¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$9.2k @ 41.4¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$8.1k @ 55.4¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Politics
Yes$7.0k @ 20.6¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Politics
Yes$5.7k @ 36.7¢
Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?Politics
No$5.1k @ 69.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$4.0k @ 28.4¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Politics
Yes$3.5k @ 30.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Geopolitics
Yes$3.0k @ 94.3¢
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics
Yes$3.0k @ 68.3¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$2.8k @ 28.2¢
Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$2.8k @ 85.0¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.7k @ 12.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Geopolitics
No$2.6k @ 33.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 58.7¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
No$2.5k @ 46.5¢
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?Politics
No$2.2k @ 64.8¢
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 30.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?Politics
No$2.0k @ 92.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 11.0¢
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.9k @ 83.4¢
Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?Politics
No$1.9k @ 62.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in November?Other
Yes$1.6k @ 28.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$1.5k @ 65.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
No$1.3k @ 9.9¢