← Smart money
0x5cd5…ac33
SharpEdge
+12.9pp
ROI
+19%
Win rate
97% @ 84.4¢
Brier
0.038
Resolved
110
Avg size
$202
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 100% (4/4) | +19% | 4 |
| Crypto | 100% (3/3) | +19% | 3 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Economy | 100% (1/1) | +3% | 1 |
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (4/4)
- ROI
- +19%
- Crypto3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +19%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Economy1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +3%
Track record
89% hit · 8/9| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? | Yes | $233 | 69.6¢ | Lost |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? | No | $295 | 88.5¢ | Won |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? | No | $267 | 80.1¢ | Won |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 13? | No | $131 | 86.8¢ | Won |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | $2.2k | 78.8¢ | Won |
| Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | No | $62 | 95.0¢ | Won |
| Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | No | $1.1k | 97.1¢ | Won |
| Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | No | $873 | 97.0¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $3.4k | 83.6¢ | Won |
- Yes$233 @ 69.6¢
- No$295 @ 88.5¢
- No$267 @ 80.1¢
- No$131 @ 86.8¢
- Yes$2.2k @ 78.8¢
- No$62 @ 95.0¢
- No$1.1k @ 97.1¢
- No$873 @ 97.0¢
- No$3.4k @ 83.6¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$36.3k @ 74.8¢
- No$29.7k @ 92.8¢
- No$28.4k @ 92.7¢
- No$26.3k @ 93.4¢
- Iran coup attempt by June 30?PoliticsNo$18.2k @ 90.3¢
- Yes$15.1k @ 82.2¢
- No$11.2k @ 68.6¢
- No$11.2k @ 97.7¢
- No$6.8k @ 93.1¢
- No$5.6k @ 68.2¢
- No$5.2k @ 90.4¢
- Yes$5.2k @ 96.7¢
- No$4.4k @ 94.3¢
- Yes$4.4k @ 99.4¢
- No$4.1k @ 79.8¢
- No$3.6k @ 91.1¢
- No$3.1k @ 88.2¢
- Yes$2.6k @ 95.5¢
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$2.5k @ 81.4¢
- Yes$2.4k @ 96.5¢
- No$2.3k @ 95.9¢
- Yes$2.3k @ 96.1¢
- No$2.3k @ 92.8¢
- No$2.3k @ 88.9¢
- No$2.3k @ 93.0¢
- No$2.2k @ 91.3¢
- Yes$2.2k @ 68.0¢
- No$2.1k @ 91.0¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 97.6¢
- No$1.9k @ 82.5¢