0x5b91…2709

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5b9115312cb4fc2b2b57c65045e611092f222709
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.7pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

50% @ 46.6¢

Brier

0.134

Resolved

3525

Avg size

$116

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (235/399)	+14%	399
Politics	67% (20/30)	-0%	30
Tech	50% (7/14)	-10%	14
Sports	14% (2/14)	+22%	14
Business	62% (8/13)	+3%	13
Economy	25% (2/8)	-69%	8
Crypto	67% (2/3)	-84%	3
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+12%	1

Other399 bets
Hit rate
59% (235/399)
ROI
+14%
Politics30 bets
Hit rate
67% (20/30)
ROI
-0%
Tech14 bets
Hit rate
50% (7/14)
ROI
-10%
Sports14 bets
Hit rate
14% (2/14)
ROI
+22%
Business13 bets
Hit rate
62% (8/13)
ROI
+3%
Economy8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
-69%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-84%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+12%

Track record

57% hit · 277/482

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	$11	7.3¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$11.9k	76.6¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?	No	$305	61.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?	Yes	$57	41.0¢	Lost
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	$6.7k	54.8¢	Won
Will the US add less than 25k jobs in February?	No	$77	77.0¢	Lost
Will TPG (TPG) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$1.2k	84.5¢	Won
Wealthfront IPO in 2025?	Yes	$5.7k	85.0¢	Won
Will Paramount Skydance (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$67	67.0¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	$58	8.6¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$4.2k	55.0¢	Lost
Will Williams Companies (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$7	36.0¢	Won
Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$60	84.0¢	Won
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$3.3k	77.6¢	Won
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	No	$401	45.6¢	Lost
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	$83	75.5¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$780	88.5¢	Won
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?	Yes	$152	75.8¢	Won
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Will General Mills (GIS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?	Yes	$195	57.9¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.8k	8.9¢	Lost
Will The Gap (GAP) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$208	55.2¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	Yes	$120	7.4¢	Lost
Will State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$63	89.5¢	Won
Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$72	6.0¢	Won
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	Yes	$100	50.0¢	Won
Will Fedex (FDX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?	Yes	$1.5k	69.9¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$470	45.0¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	$114	3.3¢	Lost
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $104 end of November?	Yes	$404	79.4¢	Won
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?	No	$20	36.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$75	3.6¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$2.4k	83.4¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$753	81.5¢	Won
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$61	22.0¢	Lost
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?	No	$149	28.7¢	Lost
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?	Yes	$365	87.4¢	Won
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?	Yes	$42	14.0¢	Lost
Will Bill Ackman say "Fannie" 20+ times during the X Space event on November 18?	Yes	$5	48.0¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.1k	5.3¢	Lost
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	$6	16.0¢	Lost
Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$320	31.7¢	Lost
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Yes	$1.5k	77.0¢	Won
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day?	No	$15	88.0¢	Won
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	No	$282	61.0¢	Lost
Will American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$262	46.9¢	Won
Will American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$9	1.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	No	$42	4.2¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	Yes	$179	31.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?	No	$6	40.0¢	Lost

Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 7.3¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$11.9k @ 76.6¢
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?Won
No$305 @ 61.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?Lost
Yes$57 @ 41.0¢
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Won
Yes$6.7k @ 54.8¢
Will the US add less than 25k jobs in February?Lost
No$77 @ 77.0¢
Will TPG (TPG) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$1.2k @ 84.5¢
Wealthfront IPO in 2025?Won
Yes$5.7k @ 85.0¢
Will Paramount Skydance (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$67 @ 67.0¢
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?Lost
Yes$58 @ 8.6¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$4.2k @ 55.0¢
Will Williams Companies (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$7 @ 36.0¢
Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$60 @ 84.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$3.3k @ 77.6¢
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Lost
No$401 @ 45.6¢
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Won
Yes$83 @ 75.5¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$780 @ 88.5¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?Won
Yes$152 @ 75.8¢
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$1 @ 12.0¢
Will General Mills (GIS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?Won
Yes$195 @ 57.9¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 8.9¢
Will The Gap (GAP) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$208 @ 55.2¢
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?Lost
Yes$120 @ 7.4¢
Will State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$63 @ 89.5¢
Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$72 @ 6.0¢
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?Won
Yes$100 @ 50.0¢
Will Fedex (FDX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 69.9¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$470 @ 45.0¢
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Lost
Yes$114 @ 3.3¢
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $104 end of November?Won
Yes$404 @ 79.4¢
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?Won
No$20 @ 36.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$75 @ 3.6¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 83.4¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$753 @ 81.5¢
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$61 @ 22.0¢
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?Lost
No$149 @ 28.7¢
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?Won
Yes$365 @ 87.4¢
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?Lost
Yes$42 @ 14.0¢
Will Bill Ackman say "Fannie" 20+ times during the X Space event on November 18?Won
Yes$5 @ 48.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 5.3¢
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
No$6 @ 16.0¢
Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$320 @ 31.7¢
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 77.0¢
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day?Won
No$15 @ 88.0¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$282 @ 61.0¢
Will American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$262 @ 46.9¢
Will American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Lost
No$42 @ 4.2¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Lost
Yes$179 @ 31.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?Lost
No$6 @ 40.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$18.8k	85.4¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$12.5k	50.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$12.5k	50.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$5.1k	56.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$3.9k	87.1¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$3.6k	60.1¢
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Politics	No	$3.4k	86.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$3.0k	75.7¢
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?	Tech	No	$2.8k	90.5¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$1.9k	63.4¢
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$1.7k	78.4¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.7k	83.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.6k	82.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	54.9¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$1.4k	85.9¢
Revolut IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$1.2k	90.8¢
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$1.0k	75.5¢
Brex IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$863	96.2¢
Amazon 2026 capex above $190B?	Tech	Yes	$859	87.1¢
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$774	77.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Business	No	$606	78.4¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$574	32.7¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$493	82.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$490	49.0¢
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?	Economy	No	$477	86.8¢
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	Politics	No	$471	94.2¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$326	81.6¢
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	Tech	No	$326	90.6¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$301	60.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$280	70.0¢

US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$18.8k @ 85.4¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$12.5k @ 50.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$12.5k @ 50.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$5.1k @ 56.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$3.9k @ 87.1¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$3.6k @ 60.1¢
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Politics
No$3.4k @ 86.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$3.0k @ 75.7¢
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?Tech
No$2.8k @ 90.5¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$1.9k @ 63.4¢
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$1.7k @ 78.4¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$1.7k @ 83.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$1.6k @ 82.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 54.9¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$1.4k @ 85.9¢
Revolut IPO before 2027?Business
No$1.2k @ 90.8¢
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$1.0k @ 75.5¢
Brex IPO before 2027?Business
No$863 @ 96.2¢
Amazon 2026 capex above $190B?Tech
Yes$859 @ 87.1¢
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$774 @ 77.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Business
No$606 @ 78.4¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$574 @ 32.7¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$493 @ 82.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$490 @ 49.0¢
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?Economy
No$477 @ 86.8¢
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?Politics
No$471 @ 94.2¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$326 @ 81.6¢
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?Tech
No$326 @ 90.6¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$301 @ 60.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$280 @ 70.0¢