0x5297…7b99

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5297f1e1d0f0584537af763652a0a5f874037b99
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-1.8pp

ROI

+36%

Win rate

16% @ 18.1¢

Brier

0.119

Resolved

2152

Avg size

$14

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	41% (12/29)	-13%	29
Other	36% (4/11)	+526%	11
Geopolitics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Economy	50% (1/2)	-89%	2
Sports	100% (1/1)	+15%	1

Politics29 bets
Hit rate
41% (12/29)
ROI
-13%
Other11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
+526%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-89%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+15%

Track record

38% hit · 18/47

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026?	No	$5	98.2¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	$10	7.0¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 7?	Yes	$6	0.8¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$369	2.4¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	15.1¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	$9	89.0¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?	No	$50	0.5¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	2.5¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$12	3.9¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$633	0.9¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?	Yes	$17	72.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$781	66.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$416	0.2¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	$5.2k	73.6¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	4.4¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	$1.9k	54.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$645	39.2¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$194	34.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	$80	87.1¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	No	$5	18.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	Yes	$167	77.4¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$267	45.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	Yes	$752	0.3¢	Lost
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	Yes	$139	8.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	$41	1.8¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	$18	7.4¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$7.3k	80.1¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	$2.1k	76.1¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	Yes	$877	2.3¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	$307	0.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	No	$1.7k	36.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	Yes	$499	60.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	$1.1k	78.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$957	8.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	$276	77.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$138	18.7¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$146	0.3¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$694	0.2¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$52	0.7¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$996	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$106	89.3¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	$6	2.9¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$86	81.3¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$292	60.6¢	Lost
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	No	$5	87.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	No	$21	15.0¢	Lost

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 98.2¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Lost
No$10 @ 7.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 7?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.8¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$369 @ 2.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 15.1¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Won
No$9 @ 89.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Lost
No$50 @ 0.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 2.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$12 @ 3.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$633 @ 0.9¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?Won
Yes$17 @ 72.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$781 @ 66.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$416 @ 0.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Won
No$5.2k @ 73.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 4.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.9k @ 54.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$645 @ 39.2¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$194 @ 34.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Won
No$80 @ 87.1¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Won
No$5 @ 18.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Lost
Yes$167 @ 77.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$267 @ 45.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?Lost
Yes$752 @ 0.3¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?Lost
Yes$139 @ 8.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Lost
No$41 @ 1.8¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Won
No$18 @ 7.4¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$7.3k @ 80.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Won
No$2.1k @ 76.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$877 @ 2.3¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Lost
Yes$307 @ 0.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?Lost
No$1.7k @ 36.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?Won
Yes$499 @ 60.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$1.1k @ 78.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$957 @ 8.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$276 @ 77.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$138 @ 18.7¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$146 @ 0.3¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$694 @ 0.2¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$52 @ 0.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$996 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$106 @ 89.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Lost
Yes$6 @ 2.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$86 @ 81.3¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$292 @ 60.6¢
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?Won
No$5 @ 87.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Lost
No$21 @ 15.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$356	88.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$210	39.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$181	60.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$171	62.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$149	31.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$141	34.7¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$126	69.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$105	83.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$104	99.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$98	14.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$89	29.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$85	15.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?	Other	No	$69	97.6¢
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$65	41.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	No	$54	24.1¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	No	$51	51.4¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$50	99.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$50	99.4¢
Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?	Politics	Yes	$50	69.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$49	31.6¢
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?	Politics	No	$46	72.0¢
Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?	Politics	Yes	$38	24.6¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$35	22.5¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Politics	No	$31	47.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	No	$25	8.2¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$24	47.5¢
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$24	37.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$20	46.9¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?	Economy	No	$20	99.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?	Politics	No	$20	90.0¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$356 @ 88.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$210 @ 39.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$181 @ 60.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$171 @ 62.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
No$149 @ 31.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$141 @ 34.7¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$126 @ 69.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$105 @ 83.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$104 @ 99.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$98 @ 14.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$89 @ 29.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
No$85 @ 15.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?Other
No$69 @ 97.6¢
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$65 @ 41.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
No$54 @ 24.1¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
No$51 @ 51.4¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Geopolitics
No$50 @ 99.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$50 @ 99.4¢
Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?Politics
Yes$50 @ 69.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Politics
Yes$49 @ 31.6¢
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?Politics
No$46 @ 72.0¢
Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?Politics
Yes$38 @ 24.6¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
Yes$35 @ 22.5¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Politics
No$31 @ 47.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
No$25 @ 8.2¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$24 @ 47.5¢
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?Politics
Yes$24 @ 37.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$20 @ 46.9¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?Economy
No$20 @ 99.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?Politics
No$20 @ 90.0¢