0x4e94…d649

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4e94d9cef322b96fe4aa8a8fdbfe20e15bd0d649
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.0pp

ROI

+23%

Win rate

38% @ 34.4¢

Brier

0.180

Resolved

2114

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	38% (63/166)	-4%	166
Other	50% (76/151)	+47%	151
Tech	56% (10/18)	+57%	18
Geopolitics	30% (3/10)	+14%	10
Business	30% (3/10)	-26%	10
Sports	38% (3/8)	-50%	8
Crypto	29% (2/7)	-35%	7
Economy	50% (2/4)	+193%	4
Culture	75% (3/4)	+43%	4

Politics166 bets
Hit rate
38% (63/166)
ROI
-4%
Other151 bets
Hit rate
50% (76/151)
ROI
+47%
Tech18 bets
Hit rate
56% (10/18)
ROI
+57%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
30% (3/10)
ROI
+14%
Business10 bets
Hit rate
30% (3/10)
ROI
-26%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
-50%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-35%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+193%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+43%

Track record

44% hit · 165/378

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	$75	26.7¢	Lost
Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?	No	$20	54.5¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	$30	21.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$33	22.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$0	39.5¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	$101	52.5¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	$52	34.5¢	Lost
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?	No	$0	61.3¢	Won
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	$0	33.5¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?	Yes	$31	33.4¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$106	35.2¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?	Yes	$72	28.5¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?	Yes	$7	45.0¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$226	70.4¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	$284	88.8¢	Won
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	$1	16.8¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	$1	7.6¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$184	92.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	$39	39.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$128	64.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	$2	14.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	$24	44.5¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	$20	65.5¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$10	36.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$21	70.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$60	44.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	$50	38.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$25	62.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	$56	81.5¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	$50	60.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?	Yes	$4	45.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$15	34.4¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	$13	51.0¢	Lost
Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by October 31?	Yes	$3	7.1¢	Lost
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$234	70.5¢	Lost
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	7.0¢	Lost
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Yes	$9	31.5¢	Lost
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$30	20.0¢	Lost
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	$10	63.0¢	Won
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$8	12.4¢	Lost
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$94	59.6¢	Lost
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$26	65.8¢	Won
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$9	41.1¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$100	66.5¢	Won
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	No	$4	79.0¢	Won
Will IBM (IBM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$1	15.0¢	Lost
Will CME Group (CME) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	No	$2	46.0¢	Won
Will Equifax (EFX) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$4	29.0¢	Lost
Will 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$2	8.0¢	Lost

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Lost
Yes$75 @ 26.7¢
Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?Won
No$20 @ 54.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Lost
Yes$30 @ 21.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$33 @ 22.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$0 @ 39.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Lost
No$101 @ 52.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Lost
Yes$52 @ 34.5¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?Won
No$0 @ 61.3¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 33.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Lost
Yes$31 @ 33.4¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$106 @ 35.2¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?Lost
Yes$72 @ 28.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?Won
Yes$7 @ 45.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseWon
Yes$226 @ 70.4¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseWon
No$284 @ 88.8¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.8¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.6¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$184 @ 92.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Won
Yes$39 @ 39.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$128 @ 64.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Lost
Yes$2 @ 14.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$24 @ 44.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Won
No$20 @ 65.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 36.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$21 @ 70.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$60 @ 44.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$50 @ 38.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$25 @ 62.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$56 @ 81.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Won
No$50 @ 60.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?Won
Yes$4 @ 45.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$15 @ 34.4¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Lost
Yes$13 @ 51.0¢
Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by October 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.1¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$234 @ 70.5¢
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.0¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Lost
Yes$9 @ 31.5¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$30 @ 20.0¢
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 63.0¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$8 @ 12.4¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
No$94 @ 59.6¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$26 @ 65.8¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$9 @ 41.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$100 @ 66.5¢
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?Won
No$4 @ 79.0¢
Will IBM (IBM) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$1 @ 15.0¢
Will CME Group (CME) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$1 @ 14.0¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?Won
No$2 @ 46.0¢
Will Equifax (EFX) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$4 @ 29.0¢
Will 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$2 @ 8.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$282	50.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$265	20.5¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$175	27.9¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$151	85.3¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$141	52.9¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$141	26.8¢
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$122	20.5¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$93	41.2¢
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$88	44.8¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$87	86.5¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$85	65.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$84	27.4¢
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$66	87.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$62	26.0¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	Yes	$61	22.5¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	No	$57	37.5¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	No	$50	13.5¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$47	37.5¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Politics	No	$46	30.3¢
Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$44	8.0¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$42	16.8¢
Ossoff ahead of Newsom on November 30?	Politics	Yes	$41	85.3¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$40	90.8¢
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 12?	Culture	No	$33	28.1¢
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$33	15.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$32	50.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$31	72.5¢
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$30	45.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$30	21.5¢
Will You Can See Everything win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$27	48.3¢

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$282 @ 50.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
Yes$265 @ 20.5¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$175 @ 27.9¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$151 @ 85.3¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$141 @ 52.9¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
Yes$141 @ 26.8¢
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$122 @ 20.5¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$93 @ 41.2¢
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$88 @ 44.8¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$87 @ 86.5¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$85 @ 65.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$84 @ 27.4¢
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$66 @ 87.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$62 @ 26.0¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
Yes$61 @ 22.5¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
No$57 @ 37.5¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
No$50 @ 13.5¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$47 @ 37.5¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics
No$46 @ 30.3¢
Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$44 @ 8.0¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
Yes$42 @ 16.8¢
Ossoff ahead of Newsom on November 30?Politics
Yes$41 @ 85.3¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$40 @ 90.8¢
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 12?Culture
No$33 @ 28.1¢
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?Politics
Yes$33 @ 15.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$32 @ 50.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?Politics
Yes$31 @ 72.5¢
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$30 @ 45.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
Yes$30 @ 21.5¢
Will You Can See Everything win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$27 @ 48.3¢