0x4e94…d649

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4e94d9cef322b96fe4aa8a8fdbfe20e15bd0d649
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.8pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

38% @ 33.9¢

Brier

0.177

Resolved

1949

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (76/150)	+48%	150
Politics	32% (33/102)	-9%	102
Tech	50% (4/8)	+21%	8
Geopolitics	43% (3/7)	+26%	7
Crypto	29% (2/7)	-35%	7
Sports	50% (2/4)	-21%	4
Economy	33% (1/3)	+6%	3

Other150 bets
Hit rate
51% (76/150)
ROI
+48%
Politics102 bets
Hit rate
32% (33/102)
ROI
-9%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
+21%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+26%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-35%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-21%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+6%

Track record

43% hit · 121/281

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	Yes	$4	4.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 3?	No	$13	54.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 3?	Yes	$15	47.8¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$12	39.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 2?	Yes	$3	65.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13?	Yes	$16	8.4¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?	No	$24	55.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?	No	$4	15.7¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	Yes	$5	25.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or higher on April 30?	No	$1	17.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?	Yes	$6	11.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 6?	Yes	$8	55.0¢	Won
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$6	3.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 1?	Yes	$4	55.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$5	14.7¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$2	19.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 6?	No	$0	71.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 30?	Yes	$4	75.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$12	41.8¢	Lost
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$15	2.1¢	Lost
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$18	22.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$86	25.4¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$34	49.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 7?	No	$47	83.4¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$137	33.6¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$33	54.6¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$42	52.8¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$23	44.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?	Yes	$8	23.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C on May 4?	Yes	$6	20.3¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$19	37.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on May 5?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$60	51.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$54	26.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 2?	Yes	$3	66.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on April 30?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	$29	47.1¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$39	27.3¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$17	24.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7?	No	$19	77.5¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$353	49.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 3?	Yes	$62	45.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$71	51.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$98	37.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 5?	Yes	$4	20.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 3?	Yes	$8	65.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 7?	Yes	$3	7.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$17	19.5¢	Lost
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Under	$21	20.2¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	No	$67	71.9¢	Lost

Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 3?Won
No$13 @ 54.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 3?Lost
Yes$15 @ 47.8¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$12 @ 39.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 2?Won
Yes$3 @ 65.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13?Lost
Yes$16 @ 8.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?Won
No$24 @ 55.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?Won
No$4 @ 15.7¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?Won
Yes$5 @ 25.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or higher on April 30?Lost
No$1 @ 17.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?Won
Yes$6 @ 11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 6?Won
Yes$8 @ 55.0¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 3.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 1?Lost
Yes$4 @ 55.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 14.7¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$2 @ 19.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 6?Won
No$0 @ 71.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 30?Won
Yes$4 @ 75.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$12 @ 41.8¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 2.1¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$18 @ 22.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$86 @ 25.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$34 @ 49.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 7?Won
No$47 @ 83.4¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$137 @ 33.6¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$33 @ 54.6¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$42 @ 52.8¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$23 @ 44.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?Won
Yes$8 @ 23.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C on May 4?Lost
Yes$6 @ 20.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$19 @ 37.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on May 5?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$60 @ 51.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$54 @ 26.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 2?Won
Yes$3 @ 66.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on April 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Lost
Yes$29 @ 47.1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$39 @ 27.3¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 24.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7?Won
No$19 @ 77.5¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$353 @ 49.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 3?Won
Yes$62 @ 45.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$71 @ 51.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$98 @ 37.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 5?Won
Yes$4 @ 20.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 3?Lost
Yes$8 @ 65.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 7?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$17 @ 19.5¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Won
Under$21 @ 20.2¢
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Lost
No$67 @ 71.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$284	88.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$274	70.2¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$273	55.8¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$252	18.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$234	70.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$149	27.4¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$141	26.8¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$118	18.5¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$111	64.5¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$106	35.2¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$100	66.5¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$94	59.6¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$87	86.5¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$86	71.7¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	Yes	$75	26.7¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$74	26.9¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$73	37.5¢
Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	Tech	Yes	$71	88.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$62	26.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$60	28.5¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$60	39.6¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$56	55.4¢
Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$56	8.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$50	60.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$49	61.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$47	46.8¢
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?	Politics	No	$42	65.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$40	3.4¢
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$33	15.0¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$33	6.1¢

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$284 @ 88.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$274 @ 70.2¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$273 @ 55.8¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
Yes$252 @ 18.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$234 @ 70.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$149 @ 27.4¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
Yes$141 @ 26.8¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$118 @ 18.5¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$111 @ 64.5¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$106 @ 35.2¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$100 @ 66.5¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$94 @ 59.6¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$87 @ 86.5¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$86 @ 71.7¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
Yes$75 @ 26.7¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
Yes$74 @ 26.9¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$73 @ 37.5¢
Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?Tech
Yes$71 @ 88.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$62 @ 26.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?Economy
Yes$60 @ 28.5¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
Yes$60 @ 39.6¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
Yes$56 @ 55.4¢
Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026?Politics
Yes$56 @ 8.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Politics
No$50 @ 60.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$49 @ 61.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
No$47 @ 46.8¢
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?Politics
No$42 @ 65.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
Yes$40 @ 3.4¢
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?Politics
Yes$33 @ 15.0¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$33 @ 6.1¢