← Smart money
0x4da9…3f5d
ProfitableEdge
+14.0pp
ROI
+37%
Win rate
65% @ 51.4¢
Brier
0.245
Resolved
78
Avg size
$5
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 67% (4/6) | +29% | 6 |
| Other | 67% (4/6) | +34% | 6 |
| Crypto | 100% (2/2) | +98% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics6 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (4/6)
- ROI
- +29%
- Other6 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (4/6)
- ROI
- +34%
- Crypto2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +98%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
67% hit · 10/15| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | No | $10 | 79.5¢ | Won |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $70 | 25.0¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $45 | 49.3¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | $5 | 15.0¢ | Lost |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? | No | $5 | 82.3¢ | Won |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | $35 | 69.0¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $95 | 40.4¢ | Won |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | No | $5 | 12.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | Yes | $10 | 89.5¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $5 | 67.1¢ | Won |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | $45 | 54.9¢ | Won |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | No | $20 | 65.9¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $25 | 42.0¢ | Won |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | $5 | 40.0¢ | Won |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $10 | 58.0¢ | Won |
- No$10 @ 79.5¢
- Yes$70 @ 25.0¢
- No$45 @ 49.3¢
- Yes$5 @ 15.0¢
- No$5 @ 82.3¢
- No$35 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$95 @ 40.4¢
- No$5 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 89.5¢
- Yes$5 @ 67.1¢
- Yes$45 @ 54.9¢
- No$20 @ 65.9¢
- Yes$25 @ 42.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 58.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Geopolitics | No | $24 | 71.7¢ |
| Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? | — | No | $15 | 99.9¢ |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Politics | No | $6 | 95.5¢ |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $5 | 50.0¢ |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | No | $5 | 50.0¢ |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | Politics | Yes | $5 | 24.7¢ |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Geopolitics | No | $4 | 79.0¢ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $4 | 44.0¢ |
- No$24 @ 71.7¢
- No$15 @ 99.9¢
- No$6 @ 95.5¢
- Yes$5 @ 50.0¢
- No$5 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 24.7¢
- No$4 @ 79.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 44.0¢