0x4b8c…9e5d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4b8c8f25a0ab91aa2bffe45de975f16fde2f9e5d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+1.9pp

ROI

+42%

Win rate

11% @ 9.2¢

Brier

0.075

Resolved

4340

Avg size

$13

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	13% (23/178)	+134%	178
Politics	18% (13/72)	-65%	72
Crypto	5% (2/43)	-90%	43
Tech	21% (4/19)	-35%	19
Geopolitics	21% (3/14)	-57%	14
Sports	0% (0/11)	-100%	11
Economy	50% (1/2)	+76%	2

Other178 bets
Hit rate
13% (23/178)
ROI
+134%
Politics72 bets
Hit rate
18% (13/72)
ROI
-65%
Crypto43 bets
Hit rate
5% (2/43)
ROI
-90%
Tech19 bets
Hit rate
21% (4/19)
ROI
-35%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
21% (3/14)
ROI
-57%
Sports11 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/11)
ROI
-100%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+76%

Track record

14% hit · 46/339

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15?	Yes	$2	18.3¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 12?	Yes	$54	3.1¢	Lost
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 16?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?	Yes	$378	3.7¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18?	Yes	$13	10.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?	Yes	$103	14.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	Yes	$190	8.4¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15?	Yes	$12	0.1¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$53	15.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 15?	Yes	$9	1.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 17?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?	No	$27	0.7¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14?	Yes	$28	4.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26?	Yes	$8	3.6¢	Lost
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	Yes	$7	14.5¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$79	78.7¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 21?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30?	No	$2	2.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4?	Yes	$4	1.7¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16?	Yes	$64	0.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	$45	0.6¢	Lost
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	$1.1k	6.5¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$512	43.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 17?	Yes	$12	0.2¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$150	68.4¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19?	Yes	$241	1.3¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$33	0.7¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$761	5.8¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 3?	Yes	$2	1.5¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?	Yes	$275	50.3¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$1.6k	61.2¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$22	22.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	$635	0.7¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June?	Yes	$10	2.4¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?	Yes	$95	46.7¢	Lost
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	$91	6.4¢	Lost
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	$2	13.6¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$69	31.0¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$22	22.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 12?	Yes	$21	5.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	$452	0.6¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May?	Yes	$6	0.1¢	Lost
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 15?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	Yes	$173	54.3¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$894	59.1¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$355	3.9¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$343	16.9¢	Lost
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	$42	8.2¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on April 21?	Yes	$16	8.0¢	Lost

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.3¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 12?Lost
Yes$54 @ 3.1¢
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 16?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$378 @ 3.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18?Lost
Yes$13 @ 10.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?Lost
Yes$103 @ 14.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Lost
Yes$190 @ 8.4¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$53 @ 15.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 15?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 17?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Lost
No$27 @ 0.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14?Lost
Yes$28 @ 4.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.6¢
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$7 @ 14.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$79 @ 78.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 21?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30?Lost
No$2 @ 2.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16?Lost
Yes$64 @ 0.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?Lost
Yes$45 @ 0.6¢
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?Lost
No$1.1k @ 6.5¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$512 @ 43.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 17?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.2¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$150 @ 68.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19?Lost
Yes$241 @ 1.3¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Lost
Yes$33 @ 0.7¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$761 @ 5.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 3?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?Lost
Yes$275 @ 50.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$1.6k @ 61.2¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Won
Yes$22 @ 22.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$635 @ 0.7¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.4¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?Lost
Yes$95 @ 46.7¢
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?Lost
Yes$91 @ 6.4¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.6¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$69 @ 31.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$22 @ 22.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 12?Lost
Yes$21 @ 5.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
No$452 @ 0.6¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.1¢
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 15?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Lost
Yes$173 @ 54.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$894 @ 59.1¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$355 @ 3.9¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Lost
Yes$343 @ 16.9¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Lost
Yes$42 @ 8.2¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on April 21?Lost
Yes$16 @ 8.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
XRP all time high by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$95	1.4¢
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$71	0.8¢
Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$64	1.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in September?	Other	Yes	$27	1.2¢
Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$24	3.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?	Other	Yes	$23	1.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$19	3.5¢
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$15	0.3¢
Solana all time high by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$13	1.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $94,000 on October 1?	Crypto	Yes	$12	1.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$11	3.2¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$10	1.0¢
Will XRP reach $2.80 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$7	1.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on October 5?	Crypto	Yes	$7	1.3¢
Will XRP reach $2.60 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$7	1.3¢
Will there be 30 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$5	1.0¢
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$5	0.2¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$4	5.0¢
Will XRP reach $2.20 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$2	2.4¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 5?	Crypto	No	$2	2.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $94,000 on October 4?	Crypto	Yes	$2	1.0¢
Will XRP reach $2.40 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$1	1.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$0	16.0¢
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$0	7.0¢
NATO article 5 before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$0	7.1¢
Solana all time high by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$0	4.4¢

XRP all time high by September 30, 2026?Crypto
Yes$95 @ 1.4¢
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?Crypto
Yes$71 @ 0.8¢
Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?Crypto
Yes$64 @ 1.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in September?Other
Yes$27 @ 1.2¢
Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?Crypto
Yes$24 @ 3.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?Other
Yes$23 @ 1.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?Crypto
Yes$19 @ 3.5¢
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?Crypto
Yes$15 @ 0.3¢
Solana all time high by September 30, 2026?Crypto
Yes$13 @ 1.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $94,000 on October 1?Crypto
Yes$12 @ 1.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?Crypto
Yes$11 @ 3.2¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$10 @ 1.0¢
Will XRP reach $2.80 in September?Crypto
Yes$7 @ 1.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on October 5?Crypto
Yes$7 @ 1.3¢
Will XRP reach $2.60 in September?Crypto
Yes$7 @ 1.3¢
Will there be 30 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$5 @ 0.2¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?Politics
Yes$4 @ 5.0¢
Will XRP reach $2.20 in September?Crypto
Yes$2 @ 2.4¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 5?Crypto
No$2 @ 2.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $94,000 on October 4?Crypto
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will XRP reach $2.40 in September?Crypto
Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$0 @ 16.0¢
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Economy
Yes$0 @ 7.0¢
NATO article 5 before 2027?Politics
Yes$0 @ 7.1¢
Solana all time high by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$0 @ 4.4¢