0x48f9…e61d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x48f97930ac76cf00a8cc95deea81704f7f08e61d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.3pp

ROI

+74%

Win rate

20% @ 14.0¢

Brier

0.109

Resolved

470

Avg size

$23

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	15% (5/34)	-66%	34
Other	36% (9/25)	+203%	25
Geopolitics	0% (0/7)	-100%	7
Sports	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-33%	3

Politics34 bets
Hit rate
15% (5/34)
ROI
-66%
Other25 bets
Hit rate
36% (9/25)
ROI
+203%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/7)
ROI
-100%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-33%

Track record

21% hit · 15/73

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$22	1.1¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$18	45.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$32	63.0¢	Lost
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$17	4.9¢	Lost
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$58	5.8¢	Lost
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$53	10.6¢	Lost
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$9	1.7¢	Lost
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$482	2.2¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$18	8.1¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$166	7.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$871	15.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$123	49.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?	No	$11	1.9¢	Lost
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	$22	3.1¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?	No	$10	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$15	3.7¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	$43	1.2¢	Lost
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	$142	5.6¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$413	6.7¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$5	34.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	$106	2.6¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$510	72.1¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$57	18.2¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?	Yes	$1.2k	77.5¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$14	1.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$51	34.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$54	9.0¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$91	0.6¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$18	3.5¢	Lost
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	Yes	$53	2.2¢	Lost
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	$16	2.2¢	Lost
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	$27	12.3¢	Lost
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	$2	3.4¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$8	0.3¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$1.1k	73.3¢	Won
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?	Yes	$8	3.3¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$42	2.1¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$40	8.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$835	75.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026?	Yes	$3	11.8¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	$27	13.4¢	Lost
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	$393	6.6¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$11	2.1¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$485	5.5¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$68	4.2¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$108	35.0¢	Won
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$20	2.8¢	Lost
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	6.1¢	Lost
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$55	25.9¢	Won

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$22 @ 1.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$18 @ 45.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$32 @ 63.0¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$17 @ 4.9¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$58 @ 5.8¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$53 @ 10.6¢
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.7¢
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$482 @ 2.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$18 @ 8.1¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$166 @ 7.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$871 @ 15.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
Yes$123 @ 49.0¢
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?Lost
No$11 @ 1.9¢
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 3.1¢
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?Lost
No$10 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 3.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
No$43 @ 1.2¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Lost
Yes$142 @ 5.6¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$413 @ 6.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 34.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
No$106 @ 2.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$510 @ 72.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$57 @ 18.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 77.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$14 @ 1.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$51 @ 34.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$54 @ 9.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$91 @ 0.6¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$18 @ 3.5¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Lost
Yes$53 @ 2.2¢
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 2.2¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
No$27 @ 12.3¢
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 3.4¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$8 @ 0.3¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 73.3¢
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$42 @ 2.1¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 8.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$835 @ 75.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 11.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Lost
Yes$27 @ 13.4¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Lost
Yes$393 @ 6.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$11 @ 2.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$485 @ 5.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$68 @ 4.2¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$108 @ 35.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.8¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 6.1¢
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Won
Yes$55 @ 25.9¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$264	5.8¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$150	2.9¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$131	11.7¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	Yes	$122	16.3¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$121	40.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$113	14.1¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$108	11.3¢
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$104	4.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$104	9.4¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$101	8.5¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$98	1.9¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$98	9.7¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$64	5.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$59	19.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$50	6.5¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$36	7.1¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$30	1.4¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$27	2.1¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$24	8.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	—	Yes	$21	4.8¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13	17.8¢
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$11	0.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$9	9.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?	—	Yes	$8	7.1¢

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics
Yes$264 @ 5.8¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?Crypto
Yes$150 @ 2.9¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?Politics
Yes$131 @ 11.7¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
Yes$122 @ 16.3¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
Yes$121 @ 40.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$113 @ 14.1¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?Politics
Yes$108 @ 11.3¢
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?Politics
Yes$104 @ 4.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$104 @ 9.4¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
Yes$101 @ 8.5¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$98 @ 1.9¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$98 @ 9.7¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?Politics
Yes$64 @ 5.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$59 @ 19.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$50 @ 6.5¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$36 @ 7.1¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?—
Yes$30 @ 1.4¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?—
Yes$27 @ 2.1¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$24 @ 8.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?—
Yes$21 @ 4.8¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$13 @ 17.8¢
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$11 @ 0.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?Politics
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?—
Yes$8 @ 7.1¢