0x48f9…e61d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x48f97930ac76cf00a8cc95deea81704f7f08e61d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.5pp

ROI

+106%

Win rate

29% @ 17.2¢

Brier

0.149

Resolved

331

Avg size

$28

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	5% (1/22)	-96%	22
Other	41% (9/22)	+202%	22
Geopolitics	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+25%	2

Politics22 bets
Hit rate
5% (1/22)
ROI
-96%
Other22 bets
Hit rate
41% (9/22)
ROI
+202%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+25%

Track record

22% hit · 11/51

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$166	7.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$871	15.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$123	49.0¢	Lost
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?	Yes	$50	9.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?	No	$11	1.9¢	Lost
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	$22	3.1¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?	No	$10	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$15	3.7¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	$43	1.2¢	Lost
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	$142	5.6¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$413	6.7¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$273	49.3¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	$106	2.6¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$510	72.1¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$57	18.2¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?	Yes	$1.2k	77.5¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$14	1.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$54	9.0¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$91	0.6¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$18	3.5¢	Lost
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	Yes	$104	3.8¢	Lost
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	$16	2.2¢	Lost
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	$27	12.3¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$8	0.3¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$1.1k	73.3¢	Won
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?	Yes	$8	3.3¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$42	2.1¢	Lost
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$63	1.9¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$40	8.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$835	75.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026?	Yes	$3	11.8¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	$27	13.4¢	Lost
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	$393	6.6¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$11	2.1¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$485	5.5¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$68	4.2¢	Lost
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$20	2.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	1.6¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	$769	74.2¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$7	3.3¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Yes	$201	17.4¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$14	0.9¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	$5	2.3¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$18	1.2¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	$290	4.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?	Yes	$31	29.7¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$152	10.1¢	Won
Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	$28	0.9¢	Lost

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$166 @ 7.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$871 @ 15.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
Yes$123 @ 49.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 9.0¢
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?Lost
No$11 @ 1.9¢
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 3.1¢
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?Lost
No$10 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 3.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
No$43 @ 1.2¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Lost
Yes$142 @ 5.6¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$413 @ 6.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$273 @ 49.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
No$106 @ 2.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$510 @ 72.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$57 @ 18.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 77.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$14 @ 1.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$54 @ 9.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$91 @ 0.6¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$18 @ 3.5¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Lost
Yes$104 @ 3.8¢
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 2.2¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
No$27 @ 12.3¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$8 @ 0.3¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 73.3¢
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$42 @ 2.1¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$63 @ 1.9¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 8.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$835 @ 75.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 11.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Lost
Yes$27 @ 13.4¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Lost
Yes$393 @ 6.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$11 @ 2.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$485 @ 5.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$68 @ 4.2¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Won
No$769 @ 74.2¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$7 @ 3.3¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Won
Yes$201 @ 17.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$14 @ 0.9¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Lost
No$5 @ 2.3¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$18 @ 1.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
No$290 @ 4.0¢
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?Lost
Yes$31 @ 29.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$152 @ 10.1¢
Trump out as President by June 30?Lost
Yes$28 @ 0.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$482	2.2¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	Yes	$355	17.5¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$250	6.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$190	13.5¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$184	11.4¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$142	5.6¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$122	11.0¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$108	11.3¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$102	51.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$101	8.5¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$72	7.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$68	4.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$66	12.0¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$59	1.9¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$53	10.6¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$42	3.7¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$30	6.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$28	10.4¢
Trump out as President by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$27	0.9¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$27	17.8¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$24	8.0¢
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Politics	Yes	$22	3.1¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$22	1.1¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$19	3.8¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?	—	Yes	$19	7.9¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$17	3.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$16	8.0¢
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Politics	Yes	$14	2.3¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$13	1.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$9	9.0¢

Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?Crypto
Yes$482 @ 2.2¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
Yes$355 @ 17.5¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics
Yes$250 @ 6.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$190 @ 13.5¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Politics
Yes$184 @ 11.4¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Politics
Yes$142 @ 5.6¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$122 @ 11.0¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?Politics
Yes$108 @ 11.3¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
Yes$102 @ 51.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
Yes$101 @ 8.5¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$72 @ 7.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$68 @ 4.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?—
Yes$66 @ 12.0¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$59 @ 1.9¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$53 @ 10.6¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Politics
Yes$42 @ 3.7¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?Crypto
Yes$30 @ 6.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$28 @ 10.4¢
Trump out as President by June 30?Politics
Yes$27 @ 0.9¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$27 @ 17.8¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$24 @ 8.0¢
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?Politics
Yes$22 @ 3.1¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$22 @ 1.1¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Politics
Yes$19 @ 3.8¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?—
Yes$19 @ 7.9¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$17 @ 3.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
No$16 @ 8.0¢
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?Politics
Yes$14 @ 2.3¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$13 @ 1.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?Politics
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢