0x479d…d469

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x479d647a0b3a55b87883ee7189ebb4f165b2d469
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.0pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

85% @ 72.9¢

Brier

0.074

Resolved

119

Avg size

$821

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	83% (10/12)	+19%	12
Geopolitics	40% (2/5)	+9%	5
Other	67% (2/3)	-10%	3
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics12 bets
Hit rate
83% (10/12)
ROI
+19%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+9%
Other3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-10%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

67% hit · 14/21

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	$2.4k	96.9¢	Won
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4.0k	1.7¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$150	62.2¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$42	10.5¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$18.8k	86.4¢	Won
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$150	37.2¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$1.2k	81.3¢	Won
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	$1.5k	78.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	$635	87.8¢	Lost
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$19.3k	73.9¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?	No	$317	88.6¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	$18.9k	84.6¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	25.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$863	71.0¢	Lost
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	$2	30.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	$10.8k	88.5¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$833	61.8¢	Won
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	No	$830	89.5¢	Won
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$201	21.7¢	Lost
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31?	Yes	$141	83.2¢	Won
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$19.0k	86.7¢	Won

US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 96.9¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$4.0k @ 1.7¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$150 @ 62.2¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$42 @ 10.5¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$18.8k @ 86.4¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Won
Yes$150 @ 37.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$1.2k @ 81.3¢
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 78.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Lost
No$635 @ 87.8¢
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
Yes$19.3k @ 73.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?Won
No$317 @ 88.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Won
No$18.9k @ 84.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$863 @ 71.0¢
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Won
Yes$2 @ 30.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Won
No$10.8k @ 88.5¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$833 @ 61.8¢
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Won
No$830 @ 89.5¢
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$201 @ 21.7¢
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31?Won
Yes$141 @ 83.2¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
Yes$19.0k @ 86.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	No	$32.4k	83.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$4.0k	84.9¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	92.0¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$4	89.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$2	39.2¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
No$32.4k @ 83.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$4.0k @ 84.9¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 92.0¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
Yes$4 @ 89.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 39.2¢