← Smart money
0x40cf…d21d
Edge
-2.1pp
ROI
+7%
Win rate
28% @ 30.0¢
Brier
0.239
Resolved
555
Avg size
$90
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 33% (24/72) | +9% | 72 |
| Other | 35% (12/34) | +22% | 34 |
| Geopolitics | 40% (2/5) | -66% | 5 |
| Economy | 100% (1/1) | +62% | 1 |
| Culture | 100% (1/1) | +92% | 1 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +485% | 1 |
- Politics72 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (24/72)
- ROI
- +9%
- Other34 bets
- Hit rate
- 35% (12/34)
- ROI
- +22%
- Geopolitics5 bets
- Hit rate
- 40% (2/5)
- ROI
- -66%
- Economy1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +62%
- Culture1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +92%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +485%
Track record
36% hit · 41/114- Yes$531 @ 35.4¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 89.1¢
- No$160 @ 32.0¢
- No$450 @ 9.0¢
- Yes$3.1k @ 61.0¢
- Yes$300 @ 30.0¢
- No$10 @ 52.0¢
- No$979 @ 34.7¢
- Yes$350 @ 7.0¢
- No$4.0k @ 70.2¢
- Yes$1.9k @ 36.9¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 5.0¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 15.0¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 34.5¢
- No$1.5k @ 15.3¢
- Yes$981 @ 16.9¢
- No$4.9k @ 82.2¢
- Yes$114 @ 11.0¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 13.5¢
- Yes$2.6k @ 31.5¢
- Yes$660 @ 33.0¢
- Yes$2.5k @ 61.9¢
- Yes$6.8k @ 85.3¢
- No$280 @ 37.3¢
- Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?LostYes$581 @ 36.8¢
- Yes$552 @ 6.9¢
- No$485 @ 32.3¢
- Yes$13 @ 52.0¢
- No$2.6k @ 86.0¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 51.5¢
- Yes$165 @ 3.0¢
- No$2.0k @ 50.0¢
- Yes$39 @ 4.0¢
- Yes$45 @ 0.3¢
- Yes$180 @ 18.0¢
- Yes$96 @ 12.9¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 7.7¢
- Yes$175 @ 11.7¢
- No$583 @ 37.9¢
- Yes$44 @ 6.9¢
- No$0 @ 15.2¢
- Yes$9 @ 7.9¢
- No$1.5k @ 76.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
- No$17 @ 59.9¢
- Yes$238 @ 9.5¢
- Yes$2.8k @ 81.0¢
- Yes$167 @ 0.9¢
- Yes$158 @ 24.8¢
- Yes$2.8k @ 14.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$21.6k @ 86.3¢
- Yes$20.0k @ 50.0¢
- No$20.0k @ 50.0¢
- No$8.6k @ 85.6¢
- No$4.9k @ 85.9¢
- No$4.7k @ 83.7¢
- No$4.3k @ 85.0¢
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?GeopoliticsYes$3.9k @ 42.5¢
- Yes$3.6k @ 45.0¢
- Yes$2.7k @ 58.9¢
- No$1.7k @ 75.7¢
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?PoliticsYes$1.7k @ 59.6¢
- No$1.6k @ 78.1¢
- No$1.1k @ 69.5¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 34.5¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 17.6¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 7.0¢
- Yes$969 @ 50.8¢
- Yes$800 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$649 @ 24.8¢
- Yes$598 @ 3.4¢
- Yes$359 @ 39.7¢
- Yes$328 @ 41.0¢
- Yes$325 @ 19.8¢
- Yes$177 @ 23.7¢
- No$172 @ 82.0¢
- Yes$142 @ 21.2¢
- Yes$100 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$41 @ 27.0¢
- Yes$22 @ 2.5¢