← Smart money
0x40cf…d21d
SharpEdge
+2.4pp
ROI
+44%
Win rate
33% @ 30.5¢
Brier
0.170
Resolved
3885
Avg size
$134
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 49% (115/235) | +53% | 235 |
| Other | 37% (42/114) | +21% | 114 |
| Geopolitics | 52% (16/31) | -43% | 31 |
| Sports | 53% (8/15) | +34% | 15 |
| Science | 100% (2/2) | +56% | 2 |
| Crypto | 100% (2/2) | +102% | 2 |
| Tech | 100% (1/1) | +276% | 1 |
| Economy | 100% (1/1) | +62% | 1 |
| Culture | 100% (1/1) | +92% | 1 |
- Politics235 bets
- Hit rate
- 49% (115/235)
- ROI
- +53%
- Other114 bets
- Hit rate
- 37% (42/114)
- ROI
- +21%
- Geopolitics31 bets
- Hit rate
- 52% (16/31)
- ROI
- -43%
- Sports15 bets
- Hit rate
- 53% (8/15)
- ROI
- +34%
- Science2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +56%
- Crypto2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +102%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +276%
- Economy1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +62%
- Culture1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +92%
Track record
47% hit · 188/402- No$920 @ 91.0¢
- Yes$900 @ 90.0¢
- Yes$40 @ 37.0¢
- Yes$661 @ 90.0¢
- No$320 @ 64.0¢
- Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?WonYes$160 @ 64.0¢
- Yes$472 @ 85.0¢
- Yes$1.9k @ 95.1¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 57.0¢
- Yes$120 @ 2.3¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 17.6¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 71.4¢
- Yes$91 @ 9.3¢
- Yes$22 @ 2.5¢
- Yes$3.6k @ 45.0¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 34.5¢
- No$4.7k @ 83.7¢
- Yes$96 @ 69.0¢
- No$1.6k @ 78.1¢
- Yes$986 @ 63.3¢
- Yes$328 @ 41.0¢
- Yes$4.2k @ 85.6¢
- No$248 @ 93.0¢
- Yes$20.0k @ 99.8¢
- No$365 @ 73.0¢
- Yes$32 @ 13.4¢
- Yes$405 @ 81.0¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 78.0¢
- No$506 @ 84.3¢
- Yes$588 @ 27.4¢
- No$1.4k @ 83.8¢
- Yes$95 @ 19.0¢
- No$275 @ 55.0¢
- Yes$1.9k @ 31.2¢
- No$1.2k @ 22.3¢
- Yes$630 @ 21.4¢
- No$9.0k @ 85.6¢
- Yes$9.5k @ 94.8¢
- Yes$760 @ 38.0¢
- Yes$302 @ 37.6¢
- Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?WonNo$146 @ 38.0¢
- Yes$152 @ 41.0¢
- Yes$3.1k @ 72.0¢
- No$565 @ 95.8¢
- No$768 @ 94.8¢
- Yes$2.7k @ 88.9¢
- Yes$371 @ 13.0¢
- No$3 @ 68.0¢
- Yes$9.5k @ 67.9¢
- No$132 @ 46.1¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$20.3k @ 67.6¢
- No$11.5k @ 63.8¢
- No$11.2k @ 93.2¢
- Yes$8.7k @ 71.6¢
- Yes$8.5k @ 93.8¢
- No$5.5k @ 68.2¢
- No$5.0k @ 50.0¢
- Yes$5.0k @ 50.0¢
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?GeopoliticsNo$4.6k @ 73.0¢
- No$3.8k @ 64.0¢
- Yes$3.7k @ 0.6¢
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?PoliticsYes$3.1k @ 31.5¢
- No$3.1k @ 52.1¢
- Yes$3.1k @ 5.1¢
- Yes$2.7k @ 43.2¢
- No$2.6k @ 88.0¢
- No$2.2k @ 87.0¢
- No$2.1k @ 83.1¢
- No$1.9k @ 66.7¢
- Yes$1.7k @ 58.1¢
- No$1.7k @ 75.7¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 76.0¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 20.6¢
- No$1.3k @ 76.4¢
- No$1.3k @ 57.9¢
- No$1.3k @ 83.7¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 3.4¢
- No$1.1k @ 91.0¢
- No$974 @ 67.0¢
- No$949 @ 89.8¢