0x40cf…d21d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x40cfb29411d29f4fa0908f2a121297042cccd21d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

ProfitableSniper

Edge

+10.6pp

ROI

+76%

Win rate

50% @ 39.3¢

Brier

0.145

Resolved

341

Avg size

$200

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	36% (13/36)	+21%	36
Other	33% (1/3)	-92%	3
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+457%	1

Politics36 bets
Hit rate
36% (13/36)
ROI
+21%
Other3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-92%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+457%

Track record

38% hit · 15/40

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$513	19.3¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$553	10.5¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$6.2k	74.8¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$7.6k	24.6¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$5.9k	17.9¢	Won
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$91	2.7¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$540	13.7¢	Lost
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$648	86.3¢	Won
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$201	5.4¢	Lost
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	$288	19.8¢	Lost
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No	$141	83.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3.9k	31.6¢	Won
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	$138	4.1¢	Lost
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$1.1k	16.9¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$3.1k	35.5¢	Won
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	$5.6k	86.1¢	Won
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5.0k	24.8¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$2.2k	10.4¢	Lost
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$23.1k	78.0¢	Won
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$702	13.7¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by June 30?	No	$24	89.5¢	Won
Starmer out by June 21, 2026?	No	$430	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?	Yes	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$50	0.2¢	Lost
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	$1.1k	50.7¢	Won
Canada recession before 2027?	No	$55	1.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	13.8¢	Lost
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?	Yes	$5	22.0¢	Lost
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$87	26.7¢	Lost
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$512	16.7¢	Lost
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	No	$175	90.0¢	Won
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Yes	$558	42.6¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.9k	73.5¢	Lost
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	$68	12.9¢	Lost
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	$1.1k	75.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Yes	$322	25.6¢	Lost
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$3.4k	62.3¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	$1.3k	14.8¢	Lost
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?	Yes	$376	75.1¢	Won

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$513 @ 19.3¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$553 @ 10.5¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$6.2k @ 74.8¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$7.6k @ 24.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$5.9k @ 17.9¢
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$91 @ 2.7¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$540 @ 13.7¢
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
Yes$648 @ 86.3¢
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$201 @ 5.4¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Lost
Yes$288 @ 19.8¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Won
No$141 @ 83.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 31.6¢
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Lost
No$138 @ 4.1¢
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 16.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$3.1k @ 35.5¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?Won
No$5.6k @ 86.1¢
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$5.0k @ 24.8¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
No$2.2k @ 10.4¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$23.1k @ 78.0¢
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
Yes$702 @ 13.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by June 30?Won
No$24 @ 89.5¢
Starmer out by June 21, 2026?Won
No$430 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 0.2¢
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 50.7¢
Canada recession before 2027?Lost
No$55 @ 1.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 13.8¢
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 22.0¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Lost
Yes$87 @ 26.7¢
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$512 @ 16.7¢
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?Won
No$175 @ 90.0¢
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?Lost
Yes$558 @ 42.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.9k @ 73.5¢
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Lost
Yes$68 @ 12.9¢
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 75.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Lost
Yes$322 @ 25.6¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$3.4k @ 62.3¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Lost
No$1.3k @ 14.8¢
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?Won
Yes$376 @ 75.1¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$20.0k	50.0¢
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$20.0k	50.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$17.3k	86.6¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$16.3k	82.5¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$5.2k	86.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$4.7k	83.7¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$4.3k	85.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$3.8k	42.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$3.6k	45.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2.8k	14.7¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.3k	86.4¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.7k	75.7¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	59.6¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$1.6k	78.1¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Politics	No	$1.6k	38.8¢
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	56.7¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.4k	69.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	34.5¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	17.6¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$986	63.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$969	50.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Other	Yes	$918	41.9¢
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$840	21.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$824	7.3¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Politics	No	$820	82.0¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$800	40.0¢
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$763	11.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$757	43.7¢
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	—	Yes	$683	17.1¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$649	24.8¢

Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$20.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$20.0k @ 50.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$17.3k @ 86.6¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
Yes$16.3k @ 82.5¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$5.2k @ 86.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$4.7k @ 83.7¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$4.3k @ 85.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$3.8k @ 42.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$3.6k @ 45.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$2.8k @ 14.7¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$2.3k @ 86.4¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.7k @ 75.7¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 59.6¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$1.6k @ 78.1¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Politics
No$1.6k @ 38.8¢
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 56.7¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.4k @ 69.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$1.1k @ 34.5¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 17.6¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$986 @ 63.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$969 @ 50.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?Other
Yes$918 @ 41.9¢
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Politics
Yes$840 @ 21.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$824 @ 7.3¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
No$820 @ 82.0¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
Yes$800 @ 40.0¢
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?Politics
Yes$763 @ 11.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
Yes$757 @ 43.7¢
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?—
Yes$683 @ 17.1¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$649 @ 24.8¢