0x3eae…e2ed

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics18 bets

  Hit rate

  83% (15/18)

  ROI

  -9%

• Other13 bets

  Hit rate

  92% (12/13)

  ROI

  +12%

• Tech10 bets

  Hit rate

  70% (7/10)

  ROI

  -24%

• Sports10 bets

  Hit rate

  90% (9/10)

  ROI

  +15%

• Geopolitics10 bets

  Hit rate

  70% (7/10)

  ROI

  +1%

• Business5 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (5/5)

  ROI

  +0%

• Culture1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +15%

• Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by September 25, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 99.6¢
• Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?Lost
  Yes$17.5k @ 88.8¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Won
  Yes$11.6k @ 90.5¢
• Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of September?Won
  Yes$8 @ 99.0¢
• Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of September?Won
  Yes$867 @ 99.8¢
• Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of September?Won
  Yes$7 @ 99.9¢
• Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 end of September?Won
  Yes$897 @ 99.9¢
• Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of September?Won
  Yes$7 @ 99.9¢
• Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
  No$2.6k @ 99.8¢
• Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
  Yes$930 @ 93.0¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
  Yes$20.4k @ 95.3¢
• Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
  Yes$731 @ 91.4¢
• Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Won
  Yes$900 @ 90.0¢
• Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
  No$2.4k @ 98.6¢
• Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
  No$2.0k @ 99.5¢
• Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
  Yes$991 @ 99.8¢
• Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
  Yes$431 @ 42.6¢
• Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
  Yes$4.8k @ 89.0¢
• Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Won
  Yes$2.7k @ 89.0¢
• Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$4.4k @ 89.0¢
• Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?Lost
  Yes$139 @ 69.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$847 @ 84.7¢
• Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?Won
  Yes$372 @ 86.9¢
• Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Won
  No$2.6k @ 88.3¢
• Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 85.0¢
• Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$3.3k @ 74.1¢
• Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?Won
  No$60 @ 60.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$2.3k @ 78.0¢
• Will Este Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
  Yes$5.0k @ 89.8¢
• Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
  Yes$1.4k @ 79.2¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
  No$8.8k @ 87.5¢
• Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
  No$150 @ 77.0¢
• President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?Won
  Yes$5.3k @ 88.0¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 17, 2026?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 67.9¢
• Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
  Yes$8.2k @ 87.9¢
• Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Won
  No$15.7k @ 85.7¢
• Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?Won
  No$536 @ 89.6¢
• Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$2.1k @ 85.0¢
• Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?Won
  No$8.1k @ 80.3¢
• Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?Won
  Yes$1.8k @ 87.5¢
• 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?Won
  No$2.5k @ 83.0¢
• Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?Won
  Yes$800 @ 80.0¢
• Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Won
  No$5.9k @ 85.9¢
• Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.6k @ 74.1¢
• Will Neymar play in the World Cup?Won
  Yes$804 @ 89.0¢
• Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
  Yes$3.6k @ 86.8¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.2k @ 75.5¢
• Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?Lost
  No$3.5k @ 66.9¢
• Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?Won
  No$3.2k @ 89.0¢
• Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$7.0k @ 86.4¢

Current positions

• Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$162.7k @ 87.9¢
• Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$99.8k @ 99.8¢
• Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
  No$86.4k @ 98.4¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Geopolitics
  No$76.4k @ 98.3¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$63.8k @ 81.8¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$60.2k @ 81.7¢
• Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  No$60.1k @ 95.5¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
  No$49.4k @ 96.6¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$48.8k @ 86.1¢
• Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
  No$47.8k @ 92.2¢
• Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$35.9k @ 88.2¢
• Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?Politics
  No$35.6k @ 98.8¢
• Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
  No$35.3k @ 95.1¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$26.0k @ 98.5¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026Politics
  No$24.4k @ 96.6¢
• Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  Yes$23.6k @ 94.4¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
  Yes$22.9k @ 96.8¢
• Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
  No$22.1k @ 90.9¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
  Yes$20.4k @ 95.3¢
• Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
  No$20.1k @ 88.7¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
  Yes$19.4k @ 88.9¢
• Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?Politics
  Yes$17.5k @ 88.8¢
• Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$15.3k @ 85.7¢
• Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
  No$15.0k @ 93.5¢
• US strike on Mexico by December 31?Politics
  No$14.1k @ 89.1¢
• Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?Politics
  Yes$13.5k @ 95.2¢
• Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?Politics
  No$13.2k @ 89.5¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Business
  No$12.1k @ 89.2¢
• Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
  Yes$11.9k @ 93.4¢
• Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
  Yes$11.7k @ 95.3¢