0x3bf2…70a4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3bf2b9b5801d3171314aa9a3d685de9fff4370a4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.0pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

48% @ 40.4¢

Brier

0.154

Resolved

993

Avg size

$18

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	45% (34/76)	+7%	76
Other	40% (22/55)	+63%	55
Geopolitics	46% (23/50)	+6%	50
Tech	0% (0/4)	-100%	4

Politics76 bets
Hit rate
45% (34/76)
ROI
+7%
Other55 bets
Hit rate
40% (22/55)
ROI
+63%
Geopolitics50 bets
Hit rate
46% (23/50)
ROI
+6%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%

Track record

43% hit · 79/185

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	$25	25.0¢	Lost
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	$31	28.2¢	Won
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	$108	90.0¢	Won
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	$31	26.2¢	Lost
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	$13	92.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$170	67.8¢	Won
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	$28	18.7¢	Lost
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	$42	54.4¢	Won
Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Lost
Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	Yes	$358	89.4¢	Won
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$58	58.0¢	Won
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	$530	88.3¢	Won
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	$158	97.6¢	Won
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Yes	$18	35.0¢	Lost
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Yes	$25	38.0¢	Won
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	$48	91.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	Yes	$495	99.1¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	Yes	$30	6.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	$82	82.0¢	Won
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	No	$77	76.5¢	Won
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$25	25.0¢	Lost
Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$42	35.3¢	Lost
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$16	16.5¢	Lost
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$7	27.0¢	Won
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 9?	Yes	$38	95.5¢	Won
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.6¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$4	5.2¢	Lost
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	$10	6.2¢	Lost
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?	Yes	$15	15.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$7	71.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$27	88.9¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$70	69.5¢	Won
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	Yes	$34	22.9¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$123	61.2¢	Lost
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	$21	17.7¢	Won
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	No	$25	39.0¢	Won
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	$57	64.3¢	Lost
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	$15	15.0¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$59	22.4¢	Won
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$43	15.2¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$11	21.0¢	Lost
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	No	$158	85.7¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$215	29.9¢	Lost
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	$10	84.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	$8	15.9¢	Lost
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	$16	22.2¢	Won
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	$10	14.5¢	Lost

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Lost
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Won
Yes$31 @ 28.2¢
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Won
No$108 @ 90.0¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Lost
Yes$31 @ 26.2¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Won
No$13 @ 92.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$170 @ 67.8¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?Lost
Yes$28 @ 18.7¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?Won
Yes$42 @ 54.4¢
Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?Won
Yes$358 @ 89.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$58 @ 58.0¢
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Won
Yes$530 @ 88.3¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?Won
Yes$158 @ 97.6¢
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?Lost
Yes$18 @ 35.0¢
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?Won
Yes$25 @ 38.0¢
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?Won
No$48 @ 91.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?Won
Yes$495 @ 99.1¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?Lost
Yes$30 @ 6.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
No$82 @ 82.0¢
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?Won
No$77 @ 76.5¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Lost
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?Lost
Yes$42 @ 35.3¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Lost
Yes$16 @ 16.5¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Won
Yes$7 @ 27.0¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 9?Won
Yes$38 @ 95.5¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.6¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.2¢
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Lost
Yes$10 @ 6.2¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?Lost
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 71.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$27 @ 88.9¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$70 @ 69.5¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?Lost
Yes$34 @ 22.9¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Lost
Yes$123 @ 61.2¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Won
No$21 @ 17.7¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
No$25 @ 39.0¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Lost
Yes$57 @ 64.3¢
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Lost
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Won
Yes$59 @ 22.4¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
Yes$43 @ 15.2¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$11 @ 21.0¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Won
No$158 @ 85.7¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$215 @ 29.9¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 84.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Lost
Yes$8 @ 15.9¢
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
Yes$16 @ 22.2¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Lost
Yes$10 @ 14.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be 5,100,000 or more?	Politics	No	$1.0k	80.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-04 House election?	Politics	No	$966	92.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 45%-50%?	Politics	No	$588	75.5¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be less than 3,900,000?	Politics	No	$483	89.2¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-02 House election by 18% or more?	Politics	No	$403	90.3¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-03 House election by 30% or more?	Politics	No	$329	87.7¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be 11,200,000 or more?	Politics	No	$301	85.5¢
Will total votes cast in the first round of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Georgia be less than 3,600,000?	Politics	No	$296	90.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-13 House election by 30%-35%?	Politics	No	$286	72.8¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$266	34.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 50% or more?	Politics	No	$246	89.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 15%-18%?	Politics	No	$235	90.3¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 50% or more?	Politics	No	$234	89.5¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be less than 900,000?	Politics	No	$234	87.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-08 House election by 3% or more?	Politics	No	$215	89.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-01 House election by 3%-6%?	Politics	No	$210	84.7¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 21% or more?	Politics	No	$202	93.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 5%-10%?	Politics	No	$199	86.7¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%?	Politics	Yes	$198	19.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the final round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%?	Politics	Yes	$195	14.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-01 House election by 18%-21%?	Politics	No	$190	86.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-11 House election by 20%-25%?	Politics	Yes	$184	20.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-02 House election by 50% or more?	Politics	No	$170	88.1¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Connecticut be less than 1,000,000?	Politics	No	$166	95.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 12% or more?	Politics	No	$165	88.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Politics	Yes	$148	17.6¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 12% or more?	Politics	No	$137	92.9¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada be between 1,275,000 and 1,350,000?	Politics	No	$131	87.5¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	Politics	Yes	$131	16.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CO-03 House election by 3%-6%?	Politics	Yes	$120	17.1¢

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be 5,100,000 or more?Politics
No$1.0k @ 80.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-04 House election?Politics
No$966 @ 92.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 45%-50%?Politics
No$588 @ 75.5¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be less than 3,900,000?Politics
No$483 @ 89.2¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-02 House election by 18% or more?Politics
No$403 @ 90.3¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-03 House election by 30% or more?Politics
No$329 @ 87.7¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be 11,200,000 or more?Politics
No$301 @ 85.5¢
Will total votes cast in the first round of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Georgia be less than 3,600,000?Politics
No$296 @ 90.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-13 House election by 30%-35%?Politics
No$286 @ 72.8¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Politics
Yes$266 @ 34.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 50% or more?Politics
No$246 @ 89.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 15%-18%?Politics
No$235 @ 90.3¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 50% or more?Politics
No$234 @ 89.5¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be less than 900,000?Politics
No$234 @ 87.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-08 House election by 3% or more?Politics
No$215 @ 89.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-01 House election by 3%-6%?Politics
No$210 @ 84.7¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 21% or more?Politics
No$202 @ 93.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 5%-10%?Politics
No$199 @ 86.7¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%?Politics
Yes$198 @ 19.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the final round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%?Politics
Yes$195 @ 14.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-01 House election by 18%-21%?Politics
No$190 @ 86.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-11 House election by 20%-25%?Politics
Yes$184 @ 20.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-02 House election by 50% or more?Politics
No$170 @ 88.1¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Connecticut be less than 1,000,000?Politics
No$166 @ 95.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 12% or more?Politics
No$165 @ 88.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?Politics
Yes$148 @ 17.6¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 12% or more?Politics
No$137 @ 92.9¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada be between 1,275,000 and 1,350,000?Politics
No$131 @ 87.5¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?Politics
Yes$131 @ 16.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CO-03 House election by 3%-6%?Politics
Yes$120 @ 17.1¢