0x3bf2…70a4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3bf2b9b5801d3171314aa9a3d685de9fff4370a4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.2pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

47% @ 35.3¢

Brier

0.199

Resolved

621

Avg size

$16

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	34% (15/44)	+2%	44
Other	33% (10/30)	+189%	30
Geopolitics	22% (4/18)	+2%	18

Politics44 bets
Hit rate
34% (15/44)
ROI
+2%
Other30 bets
Hit rate
33% (10/30)
ROI
+189%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
22% (4/18)
ROI
+2%

Track record

32% hit · 29/92

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$52	11.9¢	Lost
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$42	28.2¢	Lost
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.6¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$4	5.2¢	Lost
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	$10	6.2¢	Lost
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?	Yes	$15	15.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$7	71.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$27	88.9¢	Lost
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	Yes	$34	22.9¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$123	61.2¢	Lost
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	$21	17.7¢	Won
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$59	22.4¢	Won
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$43	15.2¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$11	21.0¢	Lost
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	No	$158	85.7¢	Won
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	$10	84.0¢	Won
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	$8	15.9¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	$10	14.5¢	Lost
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	No	$7	16.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$28	71.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$19	2.6¢	Lost
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	Yes	$9	10.6¢	Won
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$17	5.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	No	$20	42.3¢	Won
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	$240	50.9¢	Lost
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Will 70-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	Yes	$10	7.6¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$456	68.5¢	Won
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	Yes	$8	16.2¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Yes	$98	82.2¢	Won
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$33	11.0¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$126	62.9¢	Won
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Yes	$8	4.0¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$2	10.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$18	48.2¢	Won
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Yes	$1	3.8¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Yes	$1	4.1¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$20	9.3¢	Won
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$40	20.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	$9	43.0¢	Won
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	$93	27.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	No	$270	37.4¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	Yes	$506	61.2¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	$12	15.6¢	Lost
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$11	3.8¢	Lost
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$20	9.3¢	Lost
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$10	1.0¢	Lost

Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$52 @ 11.9¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
No$42 @ 28.2¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.6¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.2¢
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Lost
Yes$10 @ 6.2¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?Lost
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 71.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$27 @ 88.9¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?Lost
Yes$34 @ 22.9¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Lost
Yes$123 @ 61.2¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Won
No$21 @ 17.7¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Won
Yes$59 @ 22.4¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
Yes$43 @ 15.2¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$11 @ 21.0¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Won
No$158 @ 85.7¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 84.0¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Lost
Yes$8 @ 15.9¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Lost
Yes$10 @ 14.5¢
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Won
No$7 @ 16.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
No$28 @ 71.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 2.6¢
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Won
Yes$9 @ 10.6¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
Yes$17 @ 5.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 42.3¢
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$240 @ 50.9¢
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Will 70-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
Yes$10 @ 7.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$456 @ 68.5¢
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
Yes$8 @ 16.2¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Won
Yes$98 @ 82.2¢
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$33 @ 11.0¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Won
Yes$126 @ 62.9¢
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 4.0¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$18 @ 48.2¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.8¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.1¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Won
Yes$20 @ 9.3¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
Yes$40 @ 20.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 43.0¢
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Won
Yes$93 @ 27.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Won
No$270 @ 37.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$506 @ 61.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 15.6¢
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
Yes$11 @ 3.8¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$20 @ 9.3¢
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$1.1k	81.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	—	No	$986	87.0¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	—	Yes	$765	38.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	—	No	$727	88.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$332	83.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	—	Yes	$321	26.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	—	No	$292	83.4¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	—	No	$173	86.4¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$128	85.7¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$110	85.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$88	88.5¢
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$76	24.6¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	No	$71	71.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$58	58.0¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$38	17.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$33	13.0¢
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$28	19.9¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	—	Yes	$28	5.5¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$27	13.5¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	—	Yes	$21	25.1¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$16	2.1¢
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	—	Yes	$11	12.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	Politics	Yes	$11	12.0¢
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	—	Yes	$10	2.5¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?	Politics	Yes	$10	10.0¢
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$8	1.3¢
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?	Politics	No	$5	17.3¢
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	—	Yes	$2	1.0¢
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Politics	Yes	$2	1.1¢
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?	—	No	$2	9.0¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
No$1.1k @ 81.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?—
No$986 @ 87.0¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?—
Yes$765 @ 38.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?—
No$727 @ 88.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$332 @ 83.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?—
Yes$321 @ 26.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?—
No$292 @ 83.4¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?—
No$173 @ 86.4¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$128 @ 85.7¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$110 @ 85.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$88 @ 88.5¢
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?—
No$76 @ 24.6¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
No$71 @ 71.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$58 @ 58.0¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Politics
Yes$38 @ 17.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$33 @ 13.0¢
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?—
No$28 @ 19.9¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?—
Yes$28 @ 5.5¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$27 @ 13.5¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?—
Yes$21 @ 25.1¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$16 @ 2.1¢
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?—
Yes$11 @ 12.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Politics
Yes$11 @ 12.0¢
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?—
Yes$10 @ 2.5¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?Politics
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$8 @ 1.3¢
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?Politics
No$5 @ 17.3¢
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?—
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Politics
Yes$2 @ 1.1¢
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?—
No$2 @ 9.0¢