← Smart money
0x3bf2…70a4
SharpEdge
+8.4pp
ROI
+31%
Win rate
30% @ 22.1¢
Brier
0.172
Resolved
256
Avg size
$6
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 31% (8/26) | +98% | 26 |
| Politics | 31% (5/16) | +35% | 16 |
| Geopolitics | 11% (1/9) | -2% | 9 |
- Other26 bets
- Hit rate
- 31% (8/26)
- ROI
- +98%
- Politics16 bets
- Hit rate
- 31% (5/16)
- ROI
- +35%
- Geopolitics9 bets
- Hit rate
- 11% (1/9)
- ROI
- -2%
Track record
27% hit · 14/51- Yes$1 @ 2.6¢
- Yes$4 @ 5.2¢
- Yes$10 @ 6.2¢
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?LostYes$15 @ 15.0¢
- No$7 @ 71.0¢
- Yes$27 @ 88.9¢
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?LostYes$34 @ 22.9¢
- Yes$123 @ 61.2¢
- No$21 @ 17.7¢
- Yes$11 @ 21.0¢
- Yes$215 @ 29.9¢
- No$10 @ 84.0¢
- Yes$8 @ 15.9¢
- Yes$10 @ 14.5¢
- No$7 @ 16.5¢
- Yes$9 @ 10.6¢
- Yes$17 @ 5.5¢
- No$20 @ 42.3¢
- Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 7.6¢
- No$456 @ 68.5¢
- Yes$8 @ 16.2¢
- Yes$98 @ 82.2¢
- Yes$33 @ 11.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
- Yes$8 @ 4.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 10.0¢
- No$18 @ 48.2¢
- Yes$1 @ 3.8¢
- Yes$1 @ 4.1¢
- Yes$20 @ 9.3¢
- No$9 @ 43.0¢
- Yes$11 @ 3.8¢
- Yes$20 @ 9.3¢
- Yes$16 @ 5.3¢
- Yes$7 @ 11.8¢
- Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$8 @ 18.7¢
- Yes$63 @ 13.7¢
- Yes$9 @ 11.2¢
- Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%?LostYes$5 @ 6.3¢
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 20%+?LostYes$2 @ 3.2¢
- Yes$4 @ 16.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 22.0¢
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?LostYes$27 @ 15.3¢
- Yes$20 @ 73.4¢
- Yes$20 @ 23.0¢
- No$5 @ 17.3¢
- Yes$2 @ 1.1¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$845 @ 82.8¢
- Yes$453 @ 50.5¢
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$373 @ 62.8¢
- Yes$245 @ 28.6¢
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?GeopoliticsYes$209 @ 69.8¢
- No$171 @ 20.9¢
- Yes$113 @ 20.0¢
- No$66 @ 24.5¢
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?GeopoliticsYes$54 @ 18.0¢
- Yes$52 @ 11.9¢
- No$42 @ 28.2¢
- Yes$34 @ 17.0¢
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?PoliticsYes$34 @ 22.9¢
- Yes$33 @ 11.0¢
- Yes$31 @ 30.2¢
- Yes$29 @ 14.4¢
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?PoliticsYes$27 @ 15.3¢
- No$26 @ 59.9¢
- Yes$22 @ 7.2¢
- Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?GeopoliticsYes$16 @ 5.3¢
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?PoliticsYes$15 @ 15.0¢
- Yes$15 @ 2.2¢
- Yes$14 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
- Yes$7 @ 10.0¢
- Yes$7 @ 1.4¢
- No$5 @ 17.3¢
- Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%?PoliticsYes$5 @ 6.3¢
- No$5 @ 32.0¢