0x35bb…009b

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics61 bets

  Hit rate

  52% (32/61)

  ROI

  +25%

• Other42 bets

  Hit rate

  57% (24/42)

  ROI

  -22%

• Geopolitics23 bets

  Hit rate

  52% (12/23)

  ROI

  +16%

• Sports3 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (1/3)

  ROI

  +3%

• Economy2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Crypto1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +203%

• NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
  Yes$2.9k @ 84.1¢
• Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.4k @ 64.0¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$7.5k @ 83.2¢
• US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
  No$929 @ 12.5¢
• US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
  Yes$111 @ 0.5¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
  Yes$113 @ 4.2¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Won
  No$1.5k @ 73.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
  Yes$8.2k @ 67.8¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
  No$631 @ 36.0¢
• US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Lost
  No$81 @ 5.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
  Yes$2.2k @ 17.6¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Lost
  No$3.7k @ 4.1¢
• Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 30, 2026?Lost
  No$218 @ 16.4¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Won
  No$774 @ 85.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$5.2k @ 14.4¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
  No$17.8k @ 59.4¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
  Yes$12.0k @ 56.1¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$11.3k @ 59.5¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$20.5k @ 33.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
  Yes$1.2k @ 3.4¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$4.6k @ 88.9¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
  No$4.1k @ 62.4¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
  Yes$5.8k @ 26.3¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
  No$15.1k @ 82.4¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 14.2¢
• Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?Won
  Yes$2.5k @ 78.2¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
  No$15.1k @ 72.9¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
  Yes$3.1k @ 12.4¢
• Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$5.0k @ 68.6¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
  No$19.9k @ 69.2¢
• Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
  No$1.5k @ 86.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
  No$184.6k @ 85.8¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
  Yes$124.2k @ 14.8¢
• Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?Lost
  Yes$531 @ 27.0¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
  No$10.8k @ 47.6¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Won
  Yes$6.3k @ 52.9¢
• Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$164 @ 7.2¢
• President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?Lost
  No$581 @ 7.6¢
• US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Won
  Yes$2.7k @ 52.1¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Won
  Yes$5.6k @ 89.0¢
• Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Won
  Yes$2.7k @ 77.9¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
  No$4.9k @ 58.4¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
  Yes$1.2k @ 42.8¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
  No$14.7k @ 87.1¢
• Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Lost
  No$2.4k @ 51.0¢
• Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
  Yes$3.1k @ 72.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Won
  No$1.2k @ 75.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Lost
  Yes$4.1k @ 23.4¢
• Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Lost
  No$4.3k @ 68.1¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$368 @ 60.0¢

Current positions

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  No$113.8k @ 77.6¢
• Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
  No$26.3k @ 88.6¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$22.1k @ 56.6¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026Politics
  No$18.9k @ 94.7¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$11.2k @ 38.7¢
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$10.4k @ 95.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
  No$9.9k @ 99.1¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$9.1k @ 90.5¢
• Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$6.4k @ 93.0¢
• Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Geopolitics
  No$5.9k @ 94.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$5.2k @ 86.1¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
  No$4.0k @ 86.0¢
• Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$2.9k @ 83.5¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  No$1.9k @ 32.5¢
• Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?Politics
  No$1.9k @ 75.0¢
• Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch?Crypto
  No$1.1k @ 74.0¢
• Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Politics
  No$962 @ 94.1¢
• Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?Politics
  No$880 @ 88.0¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$821 @ 83.8¢
• Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
  Yes$721 @ 7.7¢
• Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?Politics
  No$560 @ 80.0¢
• Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$499 @ 82.0¢
• Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?Politics
  No$482 @ 90.6¢
• Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
  No$434 @ 61.7¢
• UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?Geopolitics
  No$420 @ 84.0¢
• Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?Crypto
  No$376 @ 69.7¢
• Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  No$360 @ 16.8¢
• Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$286 @ 84.0¢
• Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$218 @ 87.0¢
• Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  Yes$131 @ 10.9¢