← Smart money
0x33f5…97d0
SharpEdge
+11.7pp
ROI
+92%
Win rate
21% @ 9.8¢
Brier
0.154
Resolved
42
Avg size
$10
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 38% (3/8) | +201% | 8 |
| Other | 50% (1/2) | +7% | 2 |
| Economy | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics8 bets
- Hit rate
- 38% (3/8)
- ROI
- +201%
- Other2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +7%
- Economy1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
36% hit · 4/11| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France vs. Spain end in a draw? | Yes | $11 | 6.3¢ | Lost |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | $39 | 4.9¢ | Lost |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | $20 | 10.0¢ | Won |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | $16 | 0.8¢ | Lost |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | $40 | 2.8¢ | Lost |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $51 | 16.0¢ | Won |
| Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31? | Yes | $52 | 26.0¢ | Won |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | Yes | $10 | 3.0¢ | Lost |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | $10 | 3.5¢ | Lost |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | $110 | 18.8¢ | Lost |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | $50 | 77.0¢ | Won |
- Yes$11 @ 6.3¢
- Yes$39 @ 4.9¢
- Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
- Yes$16 @ 0.8¢
- Yes$40 @ 2.8¢
- Yes$51 @ 16.0¢
- Yes$52 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 3.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 3.5¢
- Yes$110 @ 18.8¢
- Yes$50 @ 77.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Politics | Yes | $176 | 1.8¢ |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $148 | 74.0¢ |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Politics | Yes | $78 | 15.5¢ |
| Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + C? | Politics | Yes | $74 | 12.1¢ |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $50 | 4.2¢ |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $27 | 24.0¢ |
| Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + L? | Politics | Yes | $2 | 0.7¢ |
| Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 1.0¢ |
- Yes$176 @ 1.8¢
- Yes$148 @ 74.0¢
- Yes$78 @ 15.5¢
- Yes$74 @ 12.1¢
- Yes$50 @ 4.2¢
- Yes$27 @ 24.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.7¢
- Yes$1 @ 1.0¢