0x31f2…f75f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x31f2f459d1d9673e608c780ed87aade12f33f75f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.4pp

ROI

+38%

Win rate

41% @ 29.4¢

Brier

0.197

Resolved

366

Avg size

$24

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	35% (38/108)	+23%	108
Politics	36% (14/39)	+34%	39
Crypto	29% (2/7)	+129%	7
Geopolitics	75% (3/4)	+748%	4
Tech	50% (1/2)	-94%	2
Sports	100% (1/1)	+314%	1

Other108 bets
Hit rate
35% (38/108)
ROI
+23%
Politics39 bets
Hit rate
36% (14/39)
ROI
+34%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
+129%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+748%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-94%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+314%

Track record

37% hit · 59/161

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	$10	21.9¢	Lost
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore - Who wins the toss?	Mumbai Indians	$5	51.0¢	Won
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad	Kolkata Knight Riders	$24	43.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$23	46.4¢	Won
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	$63	24.2¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	$11	13.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	No	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	Yes	$38	22.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain?	Yes	$1	1.6¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$246	42.0¢	Won
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans	Punjab Kings	$26	51.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Lost
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants - Who wins the toss?	Lucknow Super Giants	$8	50.0¢	Won
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals	Gujarat Titans	$42	35.0¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	$10	22.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$21	23.6¢	Lost
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 10-16?	No	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	Yes	$34	3.3¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$241	86.5¢	Won
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals	Delhi Capitals	$25	49.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 24?	No	$11	8.6¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$10	8.0¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$20	14.9¢	Lost
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	$51	59.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$20	19.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	$10	18.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	$9	22.4¢	Lost
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	$49	58.7¢	Won
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings	Punjab Kings	$25	38.0¢	Won
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	$121	23.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$161	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$165	35.0¢	Won
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?	No	$63	68.8¢	Won
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	$69	52.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	$9	7.8¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	$69	28.0¢	Won
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?	No	$1.9k	79.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 Spain?	Yes	$1	3.6¢	Lost
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals - Who wins the toss?	Rajasthan Royals	$4	51.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	$5	4.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?	No	$5	0.2¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	Yes	$24	12.6¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	Yes	$2	3.5¢	Lost
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad	Sunrisers Hyderabad	$14	39.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$107	32.0¢	Lost
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Kings	Chennai Super Kings	$88	30.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	$5	2.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	No	$51	83.6¢	Won
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings	Punjab Kings	$41	56.2¢	Won

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 21.9¢
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore - Who wins the toss?Won
Mumbai Indians$5 @ 51.0¢
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers HyderabadLost
Kolkata Knight Riders$24 @ 43.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$23 @ 46.4¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Lost
Yes$63 @ 24.2¢
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Lost
No$11 @ 13.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?Won
Yes$38 @ 22.0¢
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.6¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$246 @ 42.0¢
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat TitansWon
Punjab Kings$26 @ 51.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants - Who wins the toss?Won
Lucknow Super Giants$8 @ 50.0¢
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan RoyalsLost
Gujarat Titans$42 @ 35.0¢
GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?Lost
No$10 @ 22.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 23.6¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 10-16?Lost
No$1 @ 0.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$34 @ 3.3¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$241 @ 86.5¢
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi CapitalsWon
Delhi Capitals$25 @ 49.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 24?Won
No$11 @ 8.6¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.0¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 14.9¢
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?Won
No$51 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 19.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 18.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 22.4¢
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?Won
No$49 @ 58.7¢
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab KingsWon
Punjab Kings$25 @ 38.0¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Lost
Yes$121 @ 23.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$161 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$165 @ 35.0¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?Won
No$63 @ 68.8¢
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?Lost
No$69 @ 52.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 7.8¢
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?Won
No$69 @ 28.0¢
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?Won
No$1.9k @ 79.0¢
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 Spain?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.6¢
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals - Who wins the toss?Won
Rajasthan Royals$4 @ 51.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?Lost
No$5 @ 0.2¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?Lost
Yes$24 @ 12.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.5¢
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers HyderabadWon
Sunrisers Hyderabad$14 @ 39.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$107 @ 32.0¢
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super KingsLost
Chennai Super Kings$88 @ 30.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?Won
No$51 @ 83.6¢
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab KingsWon
Punjab Kings$41 @ 56.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Politics	No	$965	93.0¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$148	15.9¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	8.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	16.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	1.2¢

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Politics
No$965 @ 93.0¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$148 @ 15.9¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 8.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 16.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢