0x30d1…4525

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x30d1c420d1abde9442d6762dd6f6d5f92df04525
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.7pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

62% @ 56.4¢

Brier

0.141

Resolved

4129

Avg size

$35

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	63% (413/655)	+7%	655
Politics	71% (74/104)	+13%	104
Geopolitics	47% (9/19)	+16%	19
Tech	100% (1/1)	+13%	1

Other655 bets
Hit rate
63% (413/655)
ROI
+7%
Politics104 bets
Hit rate
71% (74/104)
ROI
+13%
Geopolitics19 bets
Hit rate
47% (9/19)
ROI
+16%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+13%

Track record

64% hit · 497/779

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?	Yes	$67	1.3¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?	No	$8	77.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire before July?	No	$333	79.6¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$88	81.4¢	Won
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	No	$276	6.4¢	Lost
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$8	81.0¢	Won
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?	No	$0	19.0¢	Won
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?	No	$85	77.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	Yes	$88	18.9¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?	Yes	$23	23.0¢	Won
Trump x Xi talk before July?	No	$23	27.5¢	Lost
Will next reconciliation bill extend income tax cut for high earners in 2025?	No	$37	10.1¢	Lost
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	No	$8	80.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?	No	$635	87.6¢	Won
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?	Yes	$5	16.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	No	$88	76.2¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	Yes	$29	25.0¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?	No	$261	71.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$234	80.3¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	No	$73	72.5¢	Won
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?	No	$123	81.7¢	Won
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?	No	$495	85.0¢	Won
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?	No	$31	68.3¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$1.0k	38.4¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	No	$26	88.0¢	Won
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?	No	$251	86.2¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	No	$69	20.0¢	Won
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?	Yes	$17	25.9¢	Won
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?	Yes	$490	71.3¢	Lost
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	No	$44	88.2¢	Won
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before July?	No	$630	79.9¢	Won
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?	No	$149	76.3¢	Won
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	$156	63.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$142	31.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?	No	$28	70.0¢	Lost
Will Hillary Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein?	Yes	$291	78.6¢	Won
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?	Yes	$4	70.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?	Yes	$321	49.3¢	Lost
Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fighting Oligarchy speech on August 24?	No	$9	89.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$4	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?	No	$106	62.1¢	Lost
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?	Yes	$52	72.6¢	Won
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$83	76.6¢	Won
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?	No	$28	71.7¢	Won
Kilmar Abrego Garcia deported by September 30?	No	$125	77.5¢	Won
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	Yes	$2	24.0¢	Lost
50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1?	Yes	$65	38.7¢	Lost
Will Bernie say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the GOTV rally with AOC and Zohran on October 26?	No	$31	87.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?	No	$187	74.6¢	Won
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	$30	59.9¢	Won

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?Lost
Yes$67 @ 1.3¢
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?Won
No$8 @ 77.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire before July? Won
No$333 @ 79.6¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$88 @ 81.4¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?Lost
No$276 @ 6.4¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$8 @ 81.0¢
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?Won
No$0 @ 19.0¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?Won
No$85 @ 77.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Lost
Yes$88 @ 18.9¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Won
Yes$23 @ 23.0¢
Trump x Xi talk before July?Lost
No$23 @ 27.5¢
Will next reconciliation bill extend income tax cut for high earners in 2025?Lost
No$37 @ 10.1¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?Won
No$8 @ 80.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Won
No$635 @ 87.6¢
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?Won
Yes$5 @ 16.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Won
No$88 @ 76.2¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Lost
Yes$29 @ 25.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Won
No$261 @ 71.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$234 @ 80.3¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?Won
No$73 @ 72.5¢
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?Won
No$123 @ 81.7¢
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?Won
No$495 @ 85.0¢
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?Lost
No$31 @ 68.3¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
No$1.0k @ 38.4¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Won
No$26 @ 88.0¢
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?Won
No$251 @ 86.2¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Won
No$69 @ 20.0¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?Won
Yes$17 @ 25.9¢
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?Lost
Yes$490 @ 71.3¢
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Won
No$44 @ 88.2¢
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before July?Won
No$630 @ 79.9¢
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?Won
No$149 @ 76.3¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Won
No$156 @ 63.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$142 @ 31.0¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?Lost
No$28 @ 70.0¢
Will Hillary Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein?Won
Yes$291 @ 78.6¢
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 70.0¢
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?Lost
Yes$321 @ 49.3¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fighting Oligarchy speech on August 24?Won
No$9 @ 89.8¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
No$4 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?Lost
No$106 @ 62.1¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?Won
Yes$52 @ 72.6¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$83 @ 76.6¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?Won
No$28 @ 71.7¢
Kilmar Abrego Garcia deported by September 30?Won
No$125 @ 77.5¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1?Lost
Yes$65 @ 38.7¢
Will Bernie say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the GOTV rally with AOC and Zohran on October 26?Won
No$31 @ 87.8¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?Won
No$187 @ 74.6¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Won
No$30 @ 59.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	Politics	No	$4.1k	90.1¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.1k	90.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.9k	53.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.8k	91.3¢
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	87.9¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	92.2¢
Will Somalia join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	91.3¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	70.7¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.0k	65.1¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	45.5¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$964	84.8¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$945	94.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$934	74.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$843	54.6¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$836	73.3¢
Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by September 30?	Politics	No	$691	95.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?	Politics	No	$636	83.5¢
Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026?	Politics	No	$630	81.0¢
Will Sudan join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$612	90.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Politics	No	$567	94.4¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?	Politics	No	$564	71.8¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?	Politics	No	$539	64.5¢
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$494	95.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$473	57.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?	Politics	No	$460	79.7¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?	Politics	No	$437	76.9¢
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by September 30?	Politics	No	$423	98.3¢
Human moon landing in 2026?	Tech	No	$417	91.7¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$389	60.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$384	40.0¢

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?Politics
No$4.1k @ 90.1¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$2.1k @ 90.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.9k @ 53.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.8k @ 91.3¢
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 87.9¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 92.2¢
Will Somalia join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 91.3¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 70.7¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
No$1.0k @ 65.1¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 45.5¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?Geopolitics
No$964 @ 84.8¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?Geopolitics
No$945 @ 94.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$934 @ 74.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$843 @ 54.6¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$836 @ 73.3¢
Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by September 30?Politics
No$691 @ 95.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?Politics
No$636 @ 83.5¢
Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026?Politics
No$630 @ 81.0¢
Will Sudan join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$612 @ 90.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Politics
No$567 @ 94.4¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?Politics
No$564 @ 71.8¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?Politics
No$539 @ 64.5¢
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$494 @ 95.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$473 @ 57.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?Politics
No$460 @ 79.7¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?Politics
No$437 @ 76.9¢
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by September 30?Politics
No$423 @ 98.3¢
Human moon landing in 2026?Tech
No$417 @ 91.7¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$389 @ 60.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$384 @ 40.0¢