0x30d1…4525

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x30d1c420d1abde9442d6762dd6f6d5f92df04525
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.1pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

62% @ 55.9¢

Brier

0.142

Resolved

4265

Avg size

$34

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	62% (421/677)	+7%	677
Politics	72% (119/165)	+12%	165
Geopolitics	50% (18/36)	+10%	36
Tech	100% (1/1)	+13%	1

Other677 bets
Hit rate
62% (421/677)
ROI
+7%
Politics165 bets
Hit rate
72% (119/165)
ROI
+12%
Geopolitics36 bets
Hit rate
50% (18/36)
ROI
+10%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+13%

Track record

64% hit · 559/879

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?	Yes	$67	1.3¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?	No	$8	77.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire before July?	No	$333	79.6¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$75	81.0¢	Won
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	No	$276	6.4¢	Lost
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$8	81.0¢	Won
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?	No	$0	19.0¢	Won
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?	No	$85	77.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	Yes	$88	18.9¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?	Yes	$23	23.0¢	Won
Trump x Xi talk before July?	No	$23	27.5¢	Lost
Will next reconciliation bill extend income tax cut for high earners in 2025?	No	$27	11.4¢	Lost
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	No	$8	80.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?	Yes	$5	16.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	No	$88	76.2¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	Yes	$29	25.0¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?	No	$261	71.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$234	80.3¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	No	$73	72.5¢	Won
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?	No	$123	81.7¢	Won
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?	No	$495	85.0¢	Won
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?	No	$31	68.3¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$1.0k	38.4¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	No	$26	88.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	No	$69	20.0¢	Won
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?	Yes	$17	25.9¢	Won
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?	Yes	$251	76.7¢	Lost
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	No	$44	88.2¢	Won
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	No	$367	49.7¢	Won
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?	No	$149	76.3¢	Won
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	$156	63.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$142	31.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?	No	$28	70.0¢	Lost
Will Hillary Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein?	Yes	$291	78.6¢	Won
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?	Yes	$4	70.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?	Yes	$321	49.3¢	Lost
Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fighting Oligarchy speech on August 24?	No	$9	89.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$4	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?	No	$106	62.1¢	Lost
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?	Yes	$52	72.6¢	Won
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$83	76.6¢	Won
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?	No	$28	71.7¢	Won
Kilmar Abrego Garcia deported by September 30?	No	$125	77.5¢	Won
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	Yes	$2	24.0¢	Lost
50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1?	Yes	$65	38.7¢	Lost
Will Bernie say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the GOTV rally with AOC and Zohran on October 26?	No	$31	87.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?	No	$187	74.6¢	Won
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	$30	59.9¢	Won
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 70% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?	No	$26	86.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	No	$27	89.0¢	Won

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?Lost
Yes$67 @ 1.3¢
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?Won
No$8 @ 77.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire before July? Won
No$333 @ 79.6¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$75 @ 81.0¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?Lost
No$276 @ 6.4¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$8 @ 81.0¢
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?Won
No$0 @ 19.0¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?Won
No$85 @ 77.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Lost
Yes$88 @ 18.9¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Won
Yes$23 @ 23.0¢
Trump x Xi talk before July?Lost
No$23 @ 27.5¢
Will next reconciliation bill extend income tax cut for high earners in 2025?Lost
No$27 @ 11.4¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?Won
No$8 @ 80.0¢
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?Won
Yes$5 @ 16.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Won
No$88 @ 76.2¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Lost
Yes$29 @ 25.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Won
No$261 @ 71.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$234 @ 80.3¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?Won
No$73 @ 72.5¢
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?Won
No$123 @ 81.7¢
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?Won
No$495 @ 85.0¢
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?Lost
No$31 @ 68.3¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
No$1.0k @ 38.4¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Won
No$26 @ 88.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Won
No$69 @ 20.0¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?Won
Yes$17 @ 25.9¢
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?Lost
Yes$251 @ 76.7¢
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Won
No$44 @ 88.2¢
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?Won
No$367 @ 49.7¢
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?Won
No$149 @ 76.3¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Won
No$156 @ 63.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$142 @ 31.0¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?Lost
No$28 @ 70.0¢
Will Hillary Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein?Won
Yes$291 @ 78.6¢
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 70.0¢
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?Lost
Yes$321 @ 49.3¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fighting Oligarchy speech on August 24?Won
No$9 @ 89.8¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
No$4 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?Lost
No$106 @ 62.1¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?Won
Yes$52 @ 72.6¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$83 @ 76.6¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?Won
No$28 @ 71.7¢
Kilmar Abrego Garcia deported by September 30?Won
No$125 @ 77.5¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1?Lost
Yes$65 @ 38.7¢
Will Bernie say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the GOTV rally with AOC and Zohran on October 26?Won
No$31 @ 87.8¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?Won
No$187 @ 74.6¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Won
No$30 @ 59.9¢
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 70% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?Won
No$26 @ 86.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Won
No$27 @ 89.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	51.9¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.7k	91.3¢
Will Syria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	86.1¢
Will Somalia join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	91.3¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.2k	67.2¢
US government shutdown by October 1?	—	No	$1.0k	38.4¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	45.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$984	74.6¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$964	84.8¢
Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by December 31?	Politics	No	$920	83.5¢
Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026?	Politics	No	$897	83.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?	Politics	No	$839	76.7¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$836	73.3¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?	Politics	No	$823	82.1¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?	Politics	No	$684	83.7¢
Will Yemen join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$656	90.6¢
Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by November 30?	Politics	No	$632	91.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$627	93.8¢
Will Sudan join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$568	90.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?	Politics	No	$567	65.4¢
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?	—	Yes	$530	28.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	—	Yes	$488	13.2¢
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$467	95.3¢
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?	Politics	No	$442	88.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?	Politics	No	$437	76.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$424	62.4¢
Human moon landing in 2026?	Tech	No	$417	91.7¢
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?	Politics	No	$395	90.8¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?	Politics	No	$344	84.3¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$341	63.6¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 51.9¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
No$1.7k @ 91.3¢
Will Syria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 86.1¢
Will Somalia join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 91.3¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
No$1.2k @ 67.2¢
US government shutdown by October 1?—
No$1.0k @ 38.4¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 45.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$984 @ 74.6¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?Geopolitics
No$964 @ 84.8¢
Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by December 31?Politics
No$920 @ 83.5¢
Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026?Politics
No$897 @ 83.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?Politics
No$839 @ 76.7¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$836 @ 73.3¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?Politics
No$823 @ 82.1¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?Politics
No$684 @ 83.7¢
Will Yemen join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$656 @ 90.6¢
Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by November 30?Politics
No$632 @ 91.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$627 @ 93.8¢
Will Sudan join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$568 @ 90.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?Politics
No$567 @ 65.4¢
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?—
Yes$530 @ 28.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?—
Yes$488 @ 13.2¢
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$467 @ 95.3¢
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?Politics
No$442 @ 88.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?Politics
No$437 @ 76.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
No$424 @ 62.4¢
Human moon landing in 2026?Tech
No$417 @ 91.7¢
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?Politics
No$395 @ 90.8¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?Politics
No$344 @ 84.3¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
No$341 @ 63.6¢