0x3007…763a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3007ea6df4389c173a5119162be94aac6bba763a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.2pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

65% @ 61.3¢

Brier

0.184

Resolved

918

Avg size

$166

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	60% (31/52)	+4%	52
Other	68% (34/50)	+27%	50
Geopolitics	100% (11/11)	+34%	11
Sports	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Tech	50% (1/2)	-75%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+37%	1

Politics52 bets
Hit rate
60% (31/52)
ROI
+4%
Other50 bets
Hit rate
68% (34/50)
ROI
+27%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
100% (11/11)
ROI
+34%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-75%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+37%

Track record

64% hit · 78/121

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	$668	83.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	$1.8k	73.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	$628	52.8¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	$2.1k	60.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	$1000	51.7¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$3.9k	75.2¢	Won
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	$527	61.3¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	$500	58.6¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	$1.3k	24.5¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$6.2k	44.8¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$520	20.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	$1.6k	88.3¢	Won
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?	No	$500	65.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?	Yes	$2.7k	76.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Beautiful coal" or "Clean coal" during his AI speech on July 23?	Yes	$200	50.3¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$205	13.2¢	Lost
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?	Yes	$100	64.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$400	82.4¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$300	75.0¢	Lost
Tea App removed from App Store by August 31?	No	$500	85.9¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$508	59.5¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$100	15.8¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$101	81.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$100	72.1¢	Won
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 3?	Yes	$200	80.6¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$2.3k	76.2¢	Won
OpenAI browser by August 31?	Yes	$2.2k	21.8¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$3.1k	44.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Nvidia" during his AI speech on July 23?	Yes	$200	60.5¢	Won
Justin & Hailey Bieber divorce in 2025?	No	$300	86.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$3.2k	57.3¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	Yes	$51	35.0¢	Lost
Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner engaged in 2025?	No	$500	85.0¢	Won
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$206	7.5¢	Lost
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?	No	$100	61.5¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?	Yes	$101	77.0¢	Lost
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?	Yes	$154	40.4¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$1.2k	76.8¢	Won
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	Yes	$1.8k	78.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his AI speech on July 23?	Yes	$200	40.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$400	80.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$200	59.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Al-Qaeda" during 9-11 memorial event?	Yes	$100	59.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$4.8k	68.5¢	Won
Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani?	No	$300	70.9¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?	Yes	$100	16.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$150	66.0¢	Won
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?	No	$100	63.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$1.3k	62.5¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	No	$2.1k	83.7¢	Won

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Lost
Yes$668 @ 83.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 73.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Lost
Yes$628 @ 52.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 60.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Lost
Yes$1000 @ 51.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 75.2¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Won
No$527 @ 61.3¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Won
No$500 @ 58.6¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 24.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$6.2k @ 44.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$520 @ 20.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 88.3¢
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?Won
No$500 @ 65.0¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Won
Yes$2.7k @ 76.3¢
Will Trump say "Beautiful coal" or "Clean coal" during his AI speech on July 23?Won
Yes$200 @ 50.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$205 @ 13.2¢
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?Won
Yes$100 @ 64.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$400 @ 82.4¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$300 @ 75.0¢
Tea App removed from App Store by August 31?Won
No$500 @ 85.9¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$508 @ 59.5¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$100 @ 15.8¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$101 @ 81.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$100 @ 72.1¢
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 3?Won
Yes$200 @ 80.6¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$2.3k @ 76.2¢
OpenAI browser by August 31?Lost
Yes$2.2k @ 21.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$3.1k @ 44.6¢
Will Trump say "Nvidia" during his AI speech on July 23?Won
Yes$200 @ 60.5¢
Justin & Hailey Bieber divorce in 2025?Won
No$300 @ 86.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$3.2k @ 57.3¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Lost
Yes$51 @ 35.0¢
Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner engaged in 2025?Won
No$500 @ 85.0¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$206 @ 7.5¢
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?Won
No$100 @ 61.5¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$101 @ 77.0¢
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?Lost
Yes$154 @ 40.4¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$1.2k @ 76.8¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 78.9¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his AI speech on July 23?Lost
Yes$200 @ 40.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$400 @ 80.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$200 @ 59.0¢
Will Trump say "Al-Qaeda" during 9-11 memorial event?Lost
Yes$100 @ 59.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$4.8k @ 68.5¢
Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani?Lost
No$300 @ 70.9¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?Won
Yes$100 @ 16.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$150 @ 66.0¢
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?Won
No$100 @ 63.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 62.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
No$2.1k @ 83.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$16.0k	37.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$9.6k	63.6¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$7.9k	73.2¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7.1k	61.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$7.1k	77.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$4.5k	71.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$4.2k	66.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Politics	Yes	$3.9k	50.9¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$3.3k	73.2¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	No	$3.0k	51.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2.7k	63.5¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$2.5k	61.6¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.5k	67.3¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.4k	62.0¢
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.4k	72.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.3k	73.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.1k	86.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	73.0¢
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.7k	63.7¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.3k	67.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$996	83.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$800	76.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Politics	Yes	$790	74.8¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$783	74.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$728	52.2¢
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Politics	Yes	$668	83.5¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	No	$562	71.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	Yes	$499	26.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$465	42.3¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Politics	No	$257	78.9¢

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
No$16.0k @ 37.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$9.6k @ 63.6¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$7.9k @ 73.2¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$7.1k @ 61.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
No$7.1k @ 77.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$4.5k @ 71.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$4.2k @ 66.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Politics
Yes$3.9k @ 50.9¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$3.3k @ 73.2¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Politics
No$3.0k @ 51.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Geopolitics
Yes$2.7k @ 63.5¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$2.5k @ 61.6¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$2.5k @ 67.3¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.4k @ 62.0¢
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?Politics
Yes$2.4k @ 72.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
Yes$2.3k @ 73.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?Politics
No$2.1k @ 86.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 73.0¢
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$1.7k @ 63.7¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Politics
No$1.3k @ 67.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$996 @ 83.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$800 @ 76.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Politics
Yes$790 @ 74.8¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$783 @ 74.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
Yes$728 @ 52.2¢
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Politics
Yes$668 @ 83.5¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?Politics
No$562 @ 71.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
Yes$499 @ 26.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Politics
No$465 @ 42.3¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Politics
No$257 @ 78.9¢