0x2a01…6397

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.4pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

53% @ 49.0¢

Brier

0.063

Resolved

328

Avg size

$182

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	48% (13/27)	+11%	27
Other	70% (19/27)	+7%	27
Geopolitics	50% (5/10)	+13%	10
Tech	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Culture	50% (2/4)	+19%	4
Sports	67% (2/3)	-57%	3

Politics27 bets
Hit rate
48% (13/27)
ROI
+11%
Other27 bets
Hit rate
70% (19/27)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
50% (5/10)
ROI
+13%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+19%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-57%

Track record

54% hit · 41/76

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	No	$762	87.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	60.5¢	Lost
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	Yes	$460	76.9¢	Won
Will the fight be won by submission?	No	$157	89.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)	Robert Whittaker	$108	54.0¢	Won
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	$394	70.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$104	76.6¢	Won
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	0.2¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$2.6k	86.7¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	No	$4	0.4¢	Lost
UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)	Gable Steveson	$612	88.0¢	Won
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by August 31?	No	$161	89.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$1.0k	80.7¢	Won
UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)	Arman Tsarukyan	$730	73.0¢	Won
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	No	$169	84.3¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	No	$377	75.4¢	Won
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	$8	2.8¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$1.7k	87.3¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$1.1k	78.6¢	Lost
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	$179	84.7¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$7	0.7¢	Lost
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	No	$31	3.1¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$944	86.6¢	Won
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 17?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	Yes	$80	4.0¢	Lost
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	$1.4k	85.9¢	Won
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$87	83.0¢	Lost
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?	Yes	$399	10.9¢	Lost
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	$177	88.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$7	1.0¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	No	$880	88.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$3.4k	85.3¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$17	1.7¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$4.6k	76.2¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?	No	$563	89.6¢	Won
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	No	$42	4.2¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	Joaquin Buckley	$168	56.0¢	Lost
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	Sean Brady	$870	87.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	$4	0.2¢	Lost
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$3.6k	88.2¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	$199	82.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$3.1k	78.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	$20	2.0¢	Lost

Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Won
No$762 @ 87.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 60.5¢
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?Won
Yes$460 @ 76.9¢
Will the fight be won by submission?Won
No$157 @ 89.0¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Won
Robert Whittaker$108 @ 54.0¢
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
Yes$394 @ 70.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$104 @ 76.6¢
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$2.6k @ 86.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Lost
No$4 @ 0.4¢
UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)Won
Gable Steveson$612 @ 88.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by August 31?Won
No$161 @ 89.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$1.0k @ 80.7¢
UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)Won
Arman Tsarukyan$730 @ 73.0¢
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?Won
No$169 @ 84.3¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Won
No$377 @ 75.4¢
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$1.7k @ 87.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 78.6¢
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
Yes$179 @ 84.7¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 0.7¢
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?Lost
No$31 @ 3.1¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$944 @ 86.6¢
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 17?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Lost
Yes$80 @ 4.0¢
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 85.9¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$87 @ 83.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?Lost
Yes$399 @ 10.9¢
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?Won
Yes$177 @ 88.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Won
No$880 @ 88.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$3.4k @ 85.3¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 1.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$4.6k @ 76.2¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?Won
No$563 @ 89.6¢
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$42 @ 4.2¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)Lost
Joaquin Buckley$168 @ 56.0¢
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)Won
Sean Brady$870 @ 87.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.2¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Won
No$3.6k @ 88.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
Yes$199 @ 82.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Won
No$3.1k @ 78.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$23.5k	93.4¢
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Politics	No	$15.1k	83.8¢
Yoon out of custody before 2027?	Politics	No	$11.9k	83.3¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$10.9k	90.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$9.4k	91.8¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	Politics	No	$8.3k	85.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$7.0k	91.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$6.7k	84.4¢
Trump out as President by September 30?	Politics	No	$5.9k	98.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$4.5k	91.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$3.8k	95.3¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$3.4k	90.3¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$2.9k	97.2¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	No	$2.9k	98.0¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Tech	Anthropic	$2.8k	94.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	No	$2.8k	93.9¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	Politics	No	$2.8k	91.8¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Politics	No	$2.7k	97.5¢
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.0k	95.2¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	No	$1.9k	95.8¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.9k	94.4¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$1.9k	94.3¢
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.8k	91.7¢
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.8k	87.7¢
Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	95.4¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.5k	93.5¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	92.0¢
GTA VI released by November 30?	Culture	Yes	$1.3k	90.3¢
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$1.2k	88.3¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.1k	93.2¢

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$23.5k @ 93.4¢
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?Politics
No$15.1k @ 83.8¢
Yoon out of custody before 2027?Politics
No$11.9k @ 83.3¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$10.9k @ 90.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Geopolitics
No$9.4k @ 91.8¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?Politics
No$8.3k @ 85.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$7.0k @ 91.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$6.7k @ 84.4¢
Trump out as President by September 30?Politics
No$5.9k @ 98.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
No$4.5k @ 91.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$3.8k @ 95.3¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$3.4k @ 90.3¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Geopolitics
No$2.9k @ 97.2¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the September 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
No$2.9k @ 98.0¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Tech
Anthropic$2.8k @ 94.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
No$2.8k @ 93.9¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Politics
No$2.8k @ 91.8¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?Politics
No$2.7k @ 97.5¢
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.0k @ 95.2¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
No$1.9k @ 95.8¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.9k @ 94.4¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$1.9k @ 94.3¢
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$1.8k @ 91.7¢
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?Politics
No$1.8k @ 87.7¢
Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 95.4¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?Crypto
No$1.5k @ 93.5¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 92.0¢
GTA VI released by November 30?Culture
Yes$1.3k @ 90.3¢
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?Geopolitics
No$1.2k @ 88.3¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?Politics
No$1.1k @ 93.2¢