← Smart money
0x2200…0f2d
SharpEdge
+1.8pp
ROI
+11%
Win rate
26% @ 24.4¢
Brier
0.138
Resolved
5471
Avg size
$102
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 29% (171/587) | +21% | 587 |
| Politics | 30% (26/88) | +15% | 88 |
| Sports | 35% (7/20) | -7% | 20 |
| Geopolitics | 6% (1/17) | -73% | 17 |
| Tech | 67% (6/9) | +52% | 9 |
| Crypto | 50% (2/4) | +86% | 4 |
- Other587 bets
- Hit rate
- 29% (171/587)
- ROI
- +21%
- Politics88 bets
- Hit rate
- 30% (26/88)
- ROI
- +15%
- Sports20 bets
- Hit rate
- 35% (7/20)
- ROI
- -7%
- Geopolitics17 bets
- Hit rate
- 6% (1/17)
- ROI
- -73%
- Tech9 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (6/9)
- ROI
- +52%
- Crypto4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +86%
Track record
29% hit · 213/725- Yes$1.8k @ 58.8¢
- No$351 @ 24.3¢
- Yes$7 @ 6.6¢
- Yes$2.4k @ 22.3¢
- Yes$7 @ 0.3¢
- No$197 @ 20.0¢
- Mitchell$32 @ 58.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 0.9¢
- No$430 @ 43.7¢
- Yes$188 @ 26.3¢
- Yes$212 @ 3.2¢
- No$87 @ 62.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.7¢
- No$77 @ 47.5¢
- Yes$461 @ 11.9¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 12.1¢
- Yes$11 @ 2.8¢
- Yes$142 @ 17.4¢
- Sun vs AcesLostSun$87 @ 43.5¢
- Yes$2 @ 1.7¢
- NIP$507 @ 72.4¢
- No$161 @ 40.2¢
- Yes$176 @ 68.7¢
- Yes$5 @ 1.3¢
- No$330 @ 6.9¢
- Yes$77 @ 11.0¢
- Yes$65 @ 54.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
- No$49 @ 3.7¢
- No$9 @ 22.3¢
- Yes$60 @ 10.0¢
- Yes$959 @ 17.4¢
- No$257 @ 28.5¢
- Yes$112 @ 28.0¢
- Yes$825 @ 8.2¢
- No$255 @ 14.8¢
- No$312 @ 14.2¢
- No$40 @ 26.1¢
- Yes$275 @ 51.8¢
- Yes$9.0k @ 8.6¢
- No$18 @ 12.0¢
- No$352 @ 8.2¢
- Johns$217 @ 31.0¢
- No$1.3k @ 65.1¢
- No$1.8k @ 35.6¢
- Yes$11.6k @ 20.5¢
- Yes$40 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$200 @ 64.0¢
- Complexity$311 @ 50.0¢
- HEROIC$267 @ 44.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Politics | No | $4.3k | 61.0¢ |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Politics | No | $3.3k | 71.0¢ |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | No | $1.2k | 24.2¢ |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $1.2k | 19.0¢ |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | Politics | No | $1.0k | 12.7¢ |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $413 | 15.0¢ |
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | Politics | No | $45 | 6.0¢ |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $13 | 11.0¢ |
- No$4.3k @ 61.0¢
- No$3.3k @ 71.0¢
- No$1.2k @ 24.2¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 19.0¢
- No$1.0k @ 12.7¢
- Yes$413 @ 15.0¢
- No$45 @ 6.0¢
- Yes$13 @ 11.0¢