0x1bcb…435c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1bcb1bb4b32e3897684dfd81c354cff6c91a435c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.6pp

ROI

+32%

Win rate

55% @ 40.5¢

Brier

0.208

Resolved

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	40% (6/15)	-4%	15
Other	25% (2/8)	-55%	8
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+219%	3

Politics15 bets
Hit rate
40% (6/15)
ROI
-4%
Other8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
-55%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+219%

Track record

38% hit · 10/26

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	19.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$4	8.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$1	86.9¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$13	28.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$1	83.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$11	42.5¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$1	86.5¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$4	1.3¢	Lost
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$5	20.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Won
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	$2	71.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$2	49.7¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	40.0¢	Won
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$6	11.5¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$1	5.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$2	79.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	$2	3.6¢	Lost
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?	Yes	$2	7.3¢	Lost
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$1	72.0¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	No	$1	3.4¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?	No	$1	75.1¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?	Yes	$2	38.6¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$2	46.0¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$2	57.2¢	Lost

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 19.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$1 @ 86.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$13 @ 28.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$1 @ 83.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$11 @ 42.5¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$1 @ 86.5¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.3¢
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$5 @ 20.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Lost
No$2 @ 71.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 49.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 40.0¢
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 11.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$1 @ 5.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$2 @ 79.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.6¢
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.3¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Lost
Yes$1 @ 72.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 3.4¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Lost
No$1 @ 75.1¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Won
Yes$2 @ 38.6¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$2 @ 46.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 57.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$5	21.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	—	No	$4	70.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$4	21.9¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	Yes	$4	16.5¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$3	57.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	24.8¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$3	96.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$3	23.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$2	72.4¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	87.7¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$2	87.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	—	No	$2	90.5¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$2	96.5¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Sports	Yes	$2	38.9¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	54.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	22.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	14.6¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	32.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	20.0¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	32.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1	25.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	32.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?	—	Yes	$1	20.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$1	97.0¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	Yes	$1	74.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1	78.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$1	70.0¢
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?	—	Yes	$1	96.0¢
Will there be at least 10,000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$1	96.0¢
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$1	83.0¢

Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
Yes$5 @ 21.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?—
No$4 @ 70.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$4 @ 21.9¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
Yes$4 @ 16.5¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$3 @ 57.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 24.8¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$3 @ 96.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$3 @ 23.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$2 @ 72.4¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 87.7¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$2 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?—
No$2 @ 90.5¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?—
No$2 @ 96.5¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Sports
Yes$2 @ 38.9¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 54.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 22.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 14.6¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?—
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$1 @ 97.0¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
Yes$1 @ 74.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1 @ 78.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$1 @ 70.0¢
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?—
Yes$1 @ 96.0¢
Will there be at least 10,000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?—
Yes$1 @ 96.0¢
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$1 @ 83.0¢