0x149f…d306

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x149f91a2622dccde7380d76695ce8a964e8ad306
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.5pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

57% @ 52.3¢

Brier

0.206

Resolved

1238

Avg size

$36

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	60% (285/475)	+11%	475
Sports	52% (15/29)	+12%	29
Politics	33% (6/18)	-29%	18
Tech	100% (1/1)	+89%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+67%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+130%	1

Other475 bets
Hit rate
60% (285/475)
ROI
+11%
Sports29 bets
Hit rate
52% (15/29)
ROI
+12%
Politics18 bets
Hit rate
33% (6/18)
ROI
-29%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+89%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+67%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+130%

Track record

59% hit · 309/525

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Ole Miss vs. Florida	Florida	$3.3k	99.9¢	Won
New Mexico vs. New Mexico State	New Mexico	$538	99.9¢	Won
San Diego vs. St. Thomas	St. Thomas	$565	99.9¢	Won
Notre Dame vs. Purdue	Notre Dame	$3.8k	99.9¢	Won
Northern Illinois vs. Georgia State	Georgia State	$253	99.9¢	Won
Oilers vs. Ducks	Ducks	$45	45.0¢	Won
Oilers vs. Ducks	Oilers	$110	55.0¢	Lost
Rams vs. Seahawks	Rams	$32	32.0¢	Lost
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?	Yes	$22	11.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	No	$169	77.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$63	31.5¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	$10	5.6¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?	No	$4	41.0¢	Won
Will Mamdani say "Budget" during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?	Yes	$9	85.0¢	Won
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones	Iowa State Cyclones	$208	67.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 1)	No	$15	54.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	$29	50.5¢	Won
Will Jensen Huang say "FSD" or "Full Self-Driving" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?	No	$16	68.1¢	Won
Spurs vs. Knicks	Spurs	$100	47.0¢	Won
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)	Wild	$27	59.7¢	Won
Will Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 5+ times during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?	Yes	$13	86.3¢	Won
UFC 326: Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar (Flyweight, Early Prelims)	Jesus Aguilar	$34	40.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)	No	$131	81.9¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$212	14.1¢	Lost
Will "Algorithm" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6)	No	$54	78.3¢	Won
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air?	No	$1	62.0¢	Lost
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?	No	$64	64.0¢	Won
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?	Yes	$59	19.7¢	Lost
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alex Pereira	$196	49.0¢	Lost
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev	Alcaraz	$16	41.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$280	14.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" or "MAGA" this week? (March 8)	No	$6	73.0¢	Won
Avalanche vs. Kings	Avalanche	$590	59.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$148	29.6¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)	Moreno	$70	52.9¢	Lost
Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next press briefing?	No	$68	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	No	$20	40.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$840	84.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "College" 10+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?	Yes	$200	78.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?	No	$300	26.4¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Rafael Estevam	$42	42.0¢	Lost
Canucks vs. Flames	Canucks	$41	41.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Bruna Brasil vs. Alexia Thainara (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)	Alexia Thainara	$86	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Olympics" this week? (February 15)	No	$48	88.1¢	Won
Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	$83	55.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?	No	$24	79.0¢	Won
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?	Yes	$49	70.8¢	Won
Eagles vs. Bills	Bills	$20	25.0¢	Lost
Will Steve Bannon say "Biden" 5+ times at AmericaFest events on December 19?	No	$6	49.6¢	Won

Ole Miss vs. FloridaWon
Florida$3.3k @ 99.9¢
New Mexico vs. New Mexico StateWon
New Mexico$538 @ 99.9¢
San Diego vs. St. ThomasWon
St. Thomas$565 @ 99.9¢
Notre Dame vs. PurdueWon
Notre Dame$3.8k @ 99.9¢
Northern Illinois vs. Georgia StateWon
Georgia State$253 @ 99.9¢
Oilers vs. DucksWon
Ducks$45 @ 45.0¢
Oilers vs. DucksLost
Oilers$110 @ 55.0¢
Rams vs. SeahawksLost
Rams$32 @ 32.0¢
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?Lost
Yes$22 @ 11.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
No$169 @ 77.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$63 @ 31.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.6¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?Won
No$4 @ 41.0¢
Will Mamdani say "Budget" during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?Won
Yes$9 @ 85.0¢
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State CyclonesWon
Iowa State Cyclones$208 @ 67.0¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 1)Won
No$15 @ 54.0¢
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?Won
Yes$29 @ 50.5¢
Will Jensen Huang say "FSD" or "Full Self-Driving" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Won
No$16 @ 68.1¢
Spurs vs. KnicksWon
Spurs$100 @ 47.0¢
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Won
Wild$27 @ 59.7¢
Will Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 5+ times during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?Won
Yes$13 @ 86.3¢
UFC 326: Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar (Flyweight, Early Prelims)Lost
Jesus Aguilar$34 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)Won
No$131 @ 81.9¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$212 @ 14.1¢
Will "Algorithm" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6)Won
No$54 @ 78.3¢
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air?Lost
No$1 @ 62.0¢
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?Won
No$64 @ 64.0¢
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?Lost
Yes$59 @ 19.7¢
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Lost
Alex Pereira$196 @ 49.0¢
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander ZverevWon
Alcaraz$16 @ 41.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$280 @ 14.0¢
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" or "MAGA" this week? (March 8)Won
No$6 @ 73.0¢
Avalanche vs. KingsWon
Avalanche$590 @ 59.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$148 @ 29.6¢
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)Lost
Moreno$70 @ 52.9¢
Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next press briefing?Won
No$68 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Lost
No$20 @ 40.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$840 @ 84.0¢
Will Trump say "College" 10+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?Won
Yes$200 @ 78.3¢
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?Lost
No$300 @ 26.4¢
UFC Fight Night: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight, Main Card)Lost
Rafael Estevam$42 @ 42.0¢
Canucks vs. FlamesLost
Canucks$41 @ 41.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Bruna Brasil vs. Alexia Thainara (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)Won
Alexia Thainara$86 @ 86.0¢
Will Trump say "Olympics" this week? (February 15)Won
No$48 @ 88.1¢
Knicks vs. SpursLost
Spurs$83 @ 55.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?Won
No$24 @ 79.0¢
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
Yes$49 @ 70.8¢
Eagles vs. BillsLost
Bills$20 @ 25.0¢
Will Steve Bannon say "Biden" 5+ times at AmericaFest events on December 19?Won
No$6 @ 49.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$1.4k	87.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$832	83.2¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$270	89.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$238	88.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$234	78.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$140	70.0¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	Yes	$96	48.0¢

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$1.4k @ 87.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$832 @ 83.2¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Tech
Yes$270 @ 89.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$238 @ 88.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$234 @ 78.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$140 @ 70.0¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
Yes$96 @ 48.0¢