0x12ce…928f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x12ce1645969f0f60e43c5b826ac2906ea5f2928f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.5pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

69% @ 61.9¢

Brier

0.168

Resolved

652

Avg size

$33

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	70% (40/57)	+8%	57
Politics	63% (29/46)	+20%	46
Geopolitics	89% (16/18)	+31%	18
Tech	50% (3/6)	+4%	6
Sports	33% (1/3)	-91%	3
Economy	33% (1/3)	-47%	3

Other57 bets
Hit rate
70% (40/57)
ROI
+8%
Politics46 bets
Hit rate
63% (29/46)
ROI
+20%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
89% (16/18)
ROI
+31%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+4%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-91%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-47%

Track record

68% hit · 90/133

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Trump renames AI by December 31?	No	$26	26.0¢	Lost
Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	$71	70.5¢	Lost
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Yes	$727	77.8¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$65	67.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$111	74.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$103	85.9¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$35	17.1¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	No	$63	74.2¢	Won
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$93	42.0¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?	No	$41	82.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$341	72.7¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$328	68.3¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$42	84.0¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?	Yes	$34	69.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$134	89.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$37	74.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	No	$44	88.8¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$43	86.0¢	Won
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	$178	58.5¢	Won
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	$40	66.0¢	Won
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?	No	$44	88.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$458	83.3¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$631	70.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$20	39.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$16	32.0¢	Won
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	No	$97	57.1¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$258	69.8¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$288	84.7¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$7	70.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$92	57.7¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	$49	9.4¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$203	65.6¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$58	39.0¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$423	42.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	$62	73.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	Yes	$3	25.2¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$594	69.9¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$138	78.9¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$32	64.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	Yes	$33	27.5¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$190	82.6¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$96	26.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$191	66.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$124	38.8¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	No	$45	89.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$341	75.8¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$5	48.4¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?	No	$34	67.0¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?	Yes	$32	63.0¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$305	49.6¢	Won

Trump renames AI by December 31?Lost
No$26 @ 26.0¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Lost
No$71 @ 70.5¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Won
Yes$727 @ 77.8¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$65 @ 67.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$111 @ 74.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$103 @ 85.9¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$35 @ 17.1¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Won
No$63 @ 74.2¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$93 @ 42.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?Won
No$41 @ 82.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$341 @ 72.7¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$328 @ 68.3¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$42 @ 84.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?Won
Yes$34 @ 69.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$134 @ 89.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$37 @ 74.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Won
No$44 @ 88.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$43 @ 86.0¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?Won
Yes$178 @ 58.5¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Won
Yes$40 @ 66.0¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?Won
No$44 @ 88.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$458 @ 83.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$631 @ 70.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 39.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$16 @ 32.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Won
No$97 @ 57.1¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$258 @ 69.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$288 @ 84.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$7 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$92 @ 57.7¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$49 @ 9.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$203 @ 65.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$58 @ 39.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$423 @ 42.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Lost
No$62 @ 73.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Won
Yes$3 @ 25.2¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$594 @ 69.9¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$138 @ 78.9¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$32 @ 64.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Lost
Yes$33 @ 27.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$190 @ 82.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$96 @ 26.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$191 @ 66.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$124 @ 38.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Lost
No$45 @ 89.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$341 @ 75.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 48.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Won
No$34 @ 67.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Won
Yes$32 @ 63.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
No$305 @ 49.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.3k	82.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$3.3k	77.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$782	80.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$649	72.5¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$362	88.3¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$352	72.1¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$320	82.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$320	67.4¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$292	73.0¢
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$256	80.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$200	86.4¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$176	88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$116	68.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$88	29.2¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$82	81.9¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$53	78.0¢
GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$47	40.7¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$42	14.0¢
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$38	76.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$38	75.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$21	41.1¢
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	Politics	No	$18	77.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$14	68.9¢
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$14	68.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$12	60.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4	89.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$4.3k @ 82.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$3.3k @ 77.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$782 @ 80.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$649 @ 72.5¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$362 @ 88.3¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
No$352 @ 72.1¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$320 @ 82.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$320 @ 67.4¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$292 @ 73.0¢
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$256 @ 80.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$200 @ 86.4¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$176 @ 88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$116 @ 68.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$88 @ 29.2¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$82 @ 81.9¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$53 @ 78.0¢
GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$47 @ 40.7¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$42 @ 14.0¢
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$38 @ 76.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$38 @ 75.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$21 @ 41.1¢
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?Politics
No$18 @ 77.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$14 @ 68.9¢
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$14 @ 68.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$12 @ 60.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 89.0¢