0x0bfb…26a7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0bfb8009df6c46c1fdd79b65896cf224dc4526a7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.4pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

44% @ 40.8¢

Brier

0.153

Resolved

3971

Avg size

$50

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (108/214)	+4%	214
Politics	58% (104/178)	+24%	178
Tech	60% (28/47)	-5%	47
Geopolitics	75% (30/40)	-1%	40
Culture	47% (8/17)	-36%	17
Sports	64% (7/11)	-60%	11
Crypto	67% (4/6)	+211%	6
Science	100% (1/1)	+49%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+60%	1

Other214 bets
Hit rate
50% (108/214)
ROI
+4%
Politics178 bets
Hit rate
58% (104/178)
ROI
+24%
Tech47 bets
Hit rate
60% (28/47)
ROI
-5%
Geopolitics40 bets
Hit rate
75% (30/40)
ROI
-1%
Culture17 bets
Hit rate
47% (8/17)
ROI
-36%
Sports11 bets
Hit rate
64% (7/11)
ROI
-60%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+211%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+49%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+60%

Track record

57% hit · 291/515

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	$93	8.8¢	Lost
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	$39	77.0¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	$9	15.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$846	2.2¢	Lost
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	No	$17	81.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$136	24.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	Yes	$477	39.7¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.9k	74.4¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?	No	$18	75.2¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$627	74.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$165	27.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$738	71.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$108	6.9¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$1.2k	77.3¢	Won
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$8	0.2¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	$45	3.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$112	21.7¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$808	4.8¢	Lost
Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	No	$4	78.0¢	Won
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$41	82.0¢	Won
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	$159	53.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	No	$146	81.1¢	Won
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$148	49.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$6.7k	62.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$140	35.0¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	No	$58	9.5¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$6	60.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$92	30.5¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$61	61.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	$8	7.7¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	$40	80.1¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$160	80.0¢	Won
Makarska: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Noma Noha Akugue	Noma Noha Akugue	$43	85.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$294	73.5¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	$43	43.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$2.0k	51.4¢	Lost
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	No	$41	67.1¢	Lost
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	No	$130	65.0¢	Won
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	Yes	$4	15.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	Yes	$301	2.3¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	No	$72	4.3¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$595	8.3¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$1.6k	41.3¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$176	88.0¢	Won
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 122m?	Yes	$6	1.2¢	Lost
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	$7	7.1¢	Won
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$101	4.7¢	Lost
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?	Yes	$30	1.0¢	Lost
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	$64	54.1¢	Lost

Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Lost
Yes$93 @ 8.8¢
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Won
Yes$39 @ 77.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?Lost
No$9 @ 15.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$846 @ 2.2¢
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?Won
No$17 @ 81.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$136 @ 24.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Lost
Yes$477 @ 39.7¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2.9k @ 74.4¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?Won
No$18 @ 75.2¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$627 @ 74.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$165 @ 27.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$738 @ 71.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$108 @ 6.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$1.2k @ 77.3¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.2¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Lost
Yes$45 @ 3.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$112 @ 21.7¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$808 @ 4.8¢
Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?Won
No$4 @ 78.0¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$41 @ 82.0¢
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?Won
No$159 @ 53.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Won
No$146 @ 81.1¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$148 @ 49.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$6.7k @ 62.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$140 @ 35.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Lost
No$58 @ 9.5¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 60.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$92 @ 30.5¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$61 @ 61.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in May 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 7.7¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Won
Yes$40 @ 80.1¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$160 @ 80.0¢
Makarska: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Noma Noha AkugueWon
Noma Noha Akugue$43 @ 85.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$294 @ 73.5¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Lost
Yes$43 @ 43.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$2.0k @ 51.4¢
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?Lost
No$41 @ 67.1¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Won
No$130 @ 65.0¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Lost
Yes$4 @ 15.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$301 @ 2.3¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Lost
No$72 @ 4.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$595 @ 8.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 41.3¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$176 @ 88.0¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 122m?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.2¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Won
No$7 @ 7.1¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$101 @ 4.7¢
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?Lost
Yes$30 @ 1.0¢
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?Lost
No$64 @ 54.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	0.8¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$878	44.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$822	73.7¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$613	57.8¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	No	$526	77.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$516	50.6¢
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$346	86.5¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$341	85.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$324	81.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$296	4.9¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$258	69.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$202	67.3¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$200	40.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$186	93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$172	86.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	No	$170	24.9¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$170	85.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$166	83.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	No	$146	73.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$124	41.3¢
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$93	8.8¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$92	92.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$88	88.4¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Politics	No	$85	85.0¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$84	84.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$75	75.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$73	73.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	No	$68	68.0¢
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$61	14.3¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$59	58.5¢

Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 0.8¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$878 @ 44.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$822 @ 73.7¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$613 @ 57.8¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
No$526 @ 77.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$516 @ 50.6¢
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$346 @ 86.5¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$341 @ 85.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$324 @ 81.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$296 @ 4.9¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$258 @ 69.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$202 @ 67.3¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
Yes$200 @ 40.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$186 @ 93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$172 @ 86.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
No$170 @ 24.9¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$170 @ 85.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$166 @ 83.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
No$146 @ 73.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$124 @ 41.3¢
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$93 @ 8.8¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$92 @ 92.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$88 @ 88.4¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics
No$85 @ 85.0¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$84 @ 84.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$75 @ 75.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$73 @ 73.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
No$68 @ 68.0¢
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$61 @ 14.3¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$59 @ 58.5¢