0x0ac4…d344

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0ac4bec23fa014886696c1c8b34779353ea5d344
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.4pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

82% @ 70.2¢

Brier

0.107

Resolved

136

Avg size

$175

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	75% (27/36)	+16%	36
Politics	67% (10/15)	+10%	15
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+29%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+52%	1

Other36 bets
Hit rate
75% (27/36)
ROI
+16%
Politics15 bets
Hit rate
67% (10/15)
ROI
+10%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+29%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+52%

Track record

72% hit · 39/54

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	$168	84.0¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	$289	96.2¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$160	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	24.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$813	82.4¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?	No	$175	87.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$172	85.8¢	Won
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?	No	$19	85.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$1.2k	77.3¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$88	88.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$34	68.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$299	85.3¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	$325	72.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	$35	70.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$4.3k	85.6¢	Won
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?	Yes	$1.4k	70.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$122	81.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$680	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$167	83.5¢	Won
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$1.3k	67.0¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	No	$890	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	No	$34	85.0¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$66	66.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?	No	$125	62.6¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$75	50.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	No	$5	10.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$87	43.5¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$377	75.4¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$28	55.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	$42	83.0¢	Won
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?	No	$571	68.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$44	88.4¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$37	74.0¢	Lost
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?	Yes	$5.3k	88.5¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	$118	78.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$445	74.2¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?	No	$202	64.2¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?	No	$20	40.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	No	$342	85.5¢	Won
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?	No	$410	81.9¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	No	$375	75.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?	No	$48	47.5¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?	No	$206	82.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	No	$45	89.0¢	Won

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Won
No$168 @ 84.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Won
No$289 @ 96.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$160 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$6 @ 24.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$813 @ 82.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?Won
No$175 @ 87.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$172 @ 85.8¢
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?Won
No$19 @ 85.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$1.2k @ 77.3¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$88 @ 88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$34 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Won
No$299 @ 85.3¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Lost
Yes$325 @ 72.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Lost
No$35 @ 70.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$4.3k @ 85.6¢
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 70.0¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$122 @ 81.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$680 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
No$2 @ 1.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$167 @ 83.5¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 67.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?Won
No$890 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Lost
No$34 @ 85.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$66 @ 66.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?Won
No$125 @ 62.6¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
Yes$75 @ 50.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?Won
No$5 @ 10.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$87 @ 43.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$377 @ 75.4¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$28 @ 55.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Won
No$42 @ 83.0¢
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?Lost
No$571 @ 68.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
Yes$44 @ 88.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$37 @ 74.0¢
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?Won
Yes$5.3k @ 88.5¢
Will Trump visit China by June 30?Won
Yes$118 @ 78.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$445 @ 74.2¢
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?Won
No$202 @ 64.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?Lost
No$20 @ 40.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Won
No$342 @ 85.5¢
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?Won
No$410 @ 81.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?Won
No$375 @ 75.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?Won
No$48 @ 47.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?Won
No$206 @ 82.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?Won
No$45 @ 89.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$750	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$750	50.0¢
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Politics	No	$89	89.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$87	87.0¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	Yes	$58	6.9¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$750 @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$750 @ 50.0¢
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?Politics
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$87 @ 87.0¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
Yes$58 @ 6.9¢