0x05df…882d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x05dfd81903aae6f5caa20e1c1dd1d472728a882d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-5.5pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

36% @ 41.5¢

Brier

0.181

Resolved

1458

Avg size

$268

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (51/91)	+14%	91
Politics	53% (30/57)	-9%	57
Geopolitics	45% (5/11)	-11%	11
Crypto	33% (1/3)	+341%	3
Tech	50% (1/2)	+102%	2
Sports	50% (1/2)	-18%	2

Other91 bets
Hit rate
56% (51/91)
ROI
+14%
Politics57 bets
Hit rate
53% (30/57)
ROI
-9%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
45% (5/11)
ROI
-11%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+341%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+102%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-18%

Track record

54% hit · 89/166

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$72	72.2¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$4.1k	89.5¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	Yes	$33	89.3¢	Won
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	$278	59.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	No	$112	83.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	Yes	$142	34.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$22.0k	81.8¢	Won
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?	Yes	$492	58.8¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$40.8k	85.8¢	Won
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	Yes	$6.5k	87.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	$334	45.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?	Yes	$140	22.4¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?	No	$10	50.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	$900	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$16.5k	50.3¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$18	15.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$78	77.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.7k	28.3¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$49	82.0¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$20.0k	57.5¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$1.5k	33.3¢	Lost
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	$674	55.7¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?	Yes	$5	19.0¢	Lost
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B?	Yes	$601	58.1¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$3.6k	68.7¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$488	44.0¢	Won
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?	Yes	$266	7.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$321	60.2¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	$75	74.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$5.9k	22.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$12.6k	82.9¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$1.9k	55.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$877	68.9¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?	Yes	$6	1.6¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?	No	$227	29.3¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	No	$30	0.3¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?	No	$1.9k	83.5¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?	Yes	$4	12.3¢	Won
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?	Yes	$27	4.5¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$850	28.7¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$5.1k	49.9¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	Yes	$170	60.8¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	$20	17.0¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?	Yes	$1.1k	88.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$11	53.6¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?	Yes	$7	23.0¢	Lost
Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	$206	49.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$3	37.0¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$159	42.0¢	Won
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$783	36.8¢	Lost

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
Yes$72 @ 72.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
No$4.1k @ 89.5¢
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Won
Yes$33 @ 89.3¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Won
Yes$278 @ 59.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Won
No$112 @ 83.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Lost
Yes$142 @ 34.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$22.0k @ 81.8¢
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?Won
Yes$492 @ 58.8¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$40.8k @ 85.8¢
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Won
Yes$6.5k @ 87.6¢
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Lost
Yes$334 @ 45.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?Lost
Yes$140 @ 22.4¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?Won
No$10 @ 50.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Won
Yes$900 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$16.5k @ 50.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$18 @ 15.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$78 @ 77.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.7k @ 28.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$49 @ 82.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$20.0k @ 57.5¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 33.3¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Won
No$674 @ 55.7¢
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?Lost
Yes$5 @ 19.0¢
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B?Won
Yes$601 @ 58.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$3.6k @ 68.7¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$488 @ 44.0¢
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?Lost
Yes$266 @ 7.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
No$321 @ 60.2¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?Won
No$75 @ 74.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$5.9k @ 22.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$12.6k @ 82.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$1.9k @ 55.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$877 @ 68.9¢
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.6¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Lost
No$227 @ 29.3¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Lost
No$30 @ 0.3¢
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?Won
No$1.9k @ 83.5¢
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?Won
Yes$4 @ 12.3¢
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?Lost
Yes$27 @ 4.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$850 @ 28.7¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$5.1k @ 49.9¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?Won
Yes$170 @ 60.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Lost
No$20 @ 17.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 88.5¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$11 @ 53.6¢
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?Lost
Yes$7 @ 23.0¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Lost
No$206 @ 49.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$3 @ 37.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$159 @ 42.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$783 @ 36.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$2.5k	33.2¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	69.5¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$932	56.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	No	$878	55.2¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$642	19.5¢
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$137	2.3¢
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$107	15.8¢
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$56	6.4¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$43	1.6¢
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$27	6.6¢
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$16	9.0¢

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$2.5k @ 33.2¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 69.5¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Politics
Yes$932 @ 56.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
No$878 @ 55.2¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
Yes$642 @ 19.5¢
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$137 @ 2.3¢
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$107 @ 15.8¢
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$56 @ 6.4¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?Politics
Yes$43 @ 1.6¢
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$27 @ 6.6¢
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$16 @ 9.0¢