0x03a1…b818

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x03a12a12fb345e308f040f5b27ac5627637fb818
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+18.0pp

ROI

+82%

Win rate

49% @ 31.3¢

Brier

0.267

Resolved

144

Avg size

$14

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	37% (21/57)	+81%	57
Politics	75% (3/4)	+102%	4
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other57 bets
Hit rate
37% (21/57)
ROI
+81%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+102%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

38% hit · 24/64

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18?	No	$10	18.0¢	Lost
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?	Yes	$11	25.9¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$10	56.0¢	Lost
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?	Yes	$32	35.4¢	Won
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	Yes	$11	1.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?	Yes	$21	60.8¢	Won
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025?	Yes	$20	78.0¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$11	57.0¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$10	36.1¢	Won
Rabby airdrop by September 30?	Yes	$31	34.7¢	Lost
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?	Yes	$166	22.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$32	64.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April?	Yes	$50	0.1¢	Lost
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?	Yes	$10	5.1¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	$10	84.0¢	Won
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?	Yes	$10	50.0¢	Lost
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31?	No	$20	90.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June?	No	$10	89.5¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?	Yes	$10	12.0¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	$4	7.0¢	Lost
Farcaster airdrop in Q1 2025?	No	$17	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$94	47.0¢	Lost
Blast airdrop by June 30?	Yes	$10	88.0¢	Won
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?	Yes	$240	14.5¢	Lost
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?	Yes	$36	52.6¢	Lost
Will Perena launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$12	60.0¢	Lost
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$18	12.2¢	Lost
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?	Yes	$10	8.0¢	Lost
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$12	7.8¢	Lost
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?	Yes	$30	62.1¢	Lost
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?	Yes	$13	25.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?	Yes	$100	7.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$18	69.9¢	Won
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	$102	22.1¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	Yes	$5	9.0¢	Lost
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?	Yes	$10	33.0¢	Won
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?	Yes	$23	25.1¢	Won
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	Yes	$7	36.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?	Yes	$10	68.0¢	Won
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?	Yes	$10	26.0¢	Lost
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?	No	$15	25.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	1.1¢	Lost
Biden drops out in July?	Yes	$19	40.0¢	Won
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	$15	30.1¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025?	Yes	$21	22.9¢	Lost
Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in the first 100 days?	Yes	$13	26.0¢	Won
Rabby airdrop in Q1 2025?	Yes	$9	9.0¢	Lost
zkSync airdrop by June 30?	Yes	$51	43.6¢	Won
Linea airdrop by June 30?	Yes	$10	28.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?	Yes	$10	50.0¢	Lost

Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18?Lost
No$10 @ 18.0¢
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?Lost
Yes$11 @ 25.9¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$10 @ 56.0¢
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?Won
Yes$32 @ 35.4¢
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?Won
Yes$11 @ 1.8¢
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?Won
Yes$21 @ 60.8¢
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025?Lost
Yes$20 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
No$11 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Won
Yes$10 @ 36.1¢
Rabby airdrop by September 30?Lost
Yes$31 @ 34.7¢
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?Won
Yes$166 @ 22.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$32 @ 64.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April?Lost
Yes$50 @ 0.1¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.1¢
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$10 @ 84.0¢
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?Lost
Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31?Lost
No$20 @ 90.0¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June?Won
No$10 @ 89.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$10 @ 12.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
Farcaster airdrop in Q1 2025?Won
No$17 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$94 @ 47.0¢
Blast airdrop by June 30?Won
Yes$10 @ 88.0¢
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Lost
Yes$240 @ 14.5¢
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?Lost
Yes$36 @ 52.6¢
Will Perena launch a token by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$18 @ 12.2¢
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.0¢
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$12 @ 7.8¢
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?Lost
Yes$30 @ 62.1¢
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?Lost
Yes$13 @ 25.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$100 @ 7.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$18 @ 69.9¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$102 @ 22.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?Won
Yes$10 @ 33.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?Won
Yes$23 @ 25.1¢
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?Lost
Yes$7 @ 36.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?Won
Yes$10 @ 68.0¢
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?Lost
Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?Won
No$15 @ 25.0¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.1¢
Biden drops out in July? Won
Yes$19 @ 40.0¢
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?Lost
Yes$15 @ 30.1¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025?Lost
Yes$21 @ 22.9¢
Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in the first 100 days?Won
Yes$13 @ 26.0¢
Rabby airdrop in Q1 2025?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
zkSync airdrop by June 30?Won
Yes$51 @ 43.6¢
Linea airdrop by June 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 28.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 50.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Other	Yes	$29	34.8¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	Other	Yes	$20	24.1¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$20	44.5¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$12	62.0¢
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	21.0¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$10	30.3¢
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$9	16.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?	Other	Yes	$8	15.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$7	65.0¢
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	5.0¢
Will the AAVE TVL go below $10B in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$6	60.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$5	6.5¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$5	10.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$5	37.8¢
Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$5	5.0¢
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$3	5.3¢

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other
Yes$29 @ 34.8¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?Other
Yes$20 @ 24.1¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$20 @ 44.5¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
No$12 @ 62.0¢
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 21.0¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$10 @ 30.3¢
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?Politics
Yes$9 @ 16.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?Other
Yes$8 @ 15.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$7 @ 65.0¢
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 5.0¢
Will the AAVE TVL go below $10B in 2026?Crypto
Yes$6 @ 60.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$5 @ 6.5¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$5 @ 10.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$5 @ 37.8¢
Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027?Politics
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?Politics
Yes$3 @ 5.3¢