0xff91…ab3a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xff9152ac8cb6260419ea8940248177083aceab3a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.9pp

ROI

+23%

Win rate

49% @ 42.5¢

Brier

0.183

Resolved

1147

Avg size

$78

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	52% (34/65)	+48%	65
Other	54% (29/54)	+3%	54
Geopolitics	27% (3/11)	-74%	11
Tech	30% (3/10)	-24%	10
Sports	29% (2/7)	-39%	7
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+222%	1

Politics65 bets
Hit rate
52% (34/65)
ROI
+48%
Other54 bets
Hit rate
54% (29/54)
ROI
+3%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
27% (3/11)
ROI
-74%
Tech10 bets
Hit rate
30% (3/10)
ROI
-24%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-39%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+222%

Track record

49% hit · 72/148

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$189	5.7¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$21	86.3¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	$32	8.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$176	10.1¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$110	39.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.6k	18.4¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$6	15.2¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$411	49.6¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$1.3k	67.9¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$383	88.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$67	41.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$98	87.8¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$1.7k	79.7¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$186	53.9¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$47	49.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$17	13.7¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$1.0k	54.5¢	Won
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	$353	52.1¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$69	19.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$332	17.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$3.3k	25.5¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$62	31.1¢	Won
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$81	2.9¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$361	36.1¢	Lost
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance	Spain	$270	66.8¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$547	19.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$224	8.3¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$42	76.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$788	63.6¢	Won
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$40	10.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$166	37.6¢	Lost
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	No	$35	16.1¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	No	$603	86.1¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$1.0k	21.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?	No	$9	0.8¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$373	59.8¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$604	26.8¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	No	$714	54.8¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$40	13.4¢	Lost
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?	Yes	$336	57.6¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$129	10.2¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$267	76.4¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$84	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3.8k	42.6¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$168	42.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$1.9k	76.1¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$139	15.4¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	Yes	$320	80.0¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?	Yes	$181	63.0¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	Yes	$84	14.0¢	Lost

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$189 @ 5.7¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$21 @ 86.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Lost
Yes$32 @ 8.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$176 @ 10.1¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$110 @ 39.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.6k @ 18.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$6 @ 15.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$411 @ 49.6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 67.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$383 @ 88.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$67 @ 41.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$98 @ 87.8¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$1.7k @ 79.7¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$186 @ 53.9¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Lost
Yes$47 @ 49.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$17 @ 13.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 54.5¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Won
No$353 @ 52.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$69 @ 19.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$332 @ 17.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.3k @ 25.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$62 @ 31.1¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$81 @ 2.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$361 @ 36.1¢
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceWon
Spain$270 @ 66.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$547 @ 19.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$224 @ 8.3¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$42 @ 76.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$788 @ 63.6¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$40 @ 10.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$166 @ 37.6¢
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?Won
No$35 @ 16.1¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Won
No$603 @ 86.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 21.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 0.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$373 @ 59.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$604 @ 26.8¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$714 @ 54.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 13.4¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Won
Yes$336 @ 57.6¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$129 @ 10.2¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$267 @ 76.4¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$84 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$3.8k @ 42.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
No$168 @ 42.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$1.9k @ 76.1¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$139 @ 15.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Won
Yes$320 @ 80.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Won
Yes$181 @ 63.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$84 @ 14.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$3.7k	69.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.9k	77.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$1.9k	72.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$1.6k	59.1¢
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Tech	No	$1.6k	73.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$958	79.8¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$603	86.2¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$598	85.4¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Politics	No	$487	81.2¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	—	No	$432	38.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	—	No	$346	86.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$324	81.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	—	No	$317	63.4¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$280	70.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$270	90.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$267	89.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	—	Yes	$260	65.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$246	55.6¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$176	35.2¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	—	No	$171	87.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$156	34.2¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$150	75.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$142	71.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	—	Yes	$133	12.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$124	29.7¢
US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$105	34.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$89	19.4¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	No	$85	81.9¢
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	—	No	$76	34.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$69	23.0¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$3.7k @ 69.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$2.9k @ 77.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$1.9k @ 72.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$1.6k @ 59.1¢
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?Tech
No$1.6k @ 73.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$958 @ 79.8¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$603 @ 86.2¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$598 @ 85.4¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?Politics
No$487 @ 81.2¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?—
No$432 @ 38.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?—
No$346 @ 86.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$324 @ 81.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?—
No$317 @ 63.4¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$280 @ 70.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$270 @ 90.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$267 @ 89.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?—
Yes$260 @ 65.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$246 @ 55.6¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$176 @ 35.2¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?—
No$171 @ 87.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$156 @ 34.2¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$150 @ 75.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$142 @ 71.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?—
Yes$133 @ 12.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$124 @ 29.7¢
US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$105 @ 34.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$89 @ 19.4¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
No$85 @ 81.9¢
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?—
No$76 @ 34.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$69 @ 23.0¢