0xff09…25ab

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xff0931866aa744cc4f4e71d89055244adfff25ab
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.2pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

56% @ 47.2¢

Brier

0.154

Resolved

229

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (17/31)	+1%	31
Politics	41% (9/22)	-42%	22
Sports	71% (5/7)	+88%	7
Crypto	50% (3/6)	+31%	6
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other31 bets
Hit rate
55% (17/31)
ROI
+1%
Politics22 bets
Hit rate
41% (9/22)
ROI
-42%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+88%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+31%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

51% hit · 34/67

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)	Jim Miller	$10	28.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$10	86.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$36	19.2¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)	Luana Santos	$3	49.3¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$1	47.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$3	19.9¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims)	John Yannis	$2	22.5¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)	Alessandro Costa	$2	80.5¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)	Matt Schnell	$1	21.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$5	74.6¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$2	16.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$52	61.7¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$29	19.4¢	Lost
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)	Clayton Carpenter	$1	38.0¢	Lost
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Xiyu Wang	Xiyu Wang	$2	60.0¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$2	38.4¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Lost
Thunder vs. Lakers	Thunder	$18	83.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$6	36.8¢	Lost
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)	Mateusz Rebecki	$34	42.2¢	Lost
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$2	83.3¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$5	7.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$3	63.0¢	Lost
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	Tatsuro Taira	$9	60.0¢	Lost
La Bisbal: Daria Kasatkina vs Sara Sorribes Tormo	Daria Kasatkina	$2	69.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	$2	27.8¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	81.0¢	Won
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Sean OMalley	$1	78.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$13	36.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	35.1¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	26.7¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$67	58.1¢	Won
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	Sean Brady	$29	59.8¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Prelims)	Levan Chokheli	$10	78.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	$3	52.6¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	38.2¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	$1	71.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$5	79.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	$3	7.0¢	Lost
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	$1	80.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)	Gabriel Bonfim	$54	47.8¢	Won
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Fabian Marozsan	Denis Shapovalov	$50	45.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$2	74.2¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$50	12.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$2	70.3¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	$6	89.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$1	23.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$4	71.2¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$2	79.0¢	Won

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)Won
Jim Miller$10 @ 28.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 86.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$36 @ 19.2¢
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)Won
Luana Santos$3 @ 49.3¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$1 @ 47.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 19.9¢
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims)Lost
John Yannis$2 @ 22.5¢
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)Won
Alessandro Costa$2 @ 80.5¢
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)Lost
Matt Schnell$1 @ 21.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$5 @ 74.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$52 @ 61.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 19.4¢
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)Lost
Clayton Carpenter$1 @ 38.0¢
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Xiyu WangWon
Xiyu Wang$2 @ 60.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$2 @ 38.4¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
Thunder vs. LakersWon
Thunder$18 @ 83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$6 @ 36.8¢
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)Lost
Mateusz Rebecki$34 @ 42.2¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$2 @ 83.3¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$5 @ 7.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 63.0¢
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)Lost
Tatsuro Taira$9 @ 60.0¢
La Bisbal: Daria Kasatkina vs Sara Sorribes TormoWon
Daria Kasatkina$2 @ 69.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 27.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 81.0¢
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)Won
Sean OMalley$1 @ 78.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$13 @ 36.3¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 35.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 26.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$67 @ 58.1¢
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)Won
Sean Brady$29 @ 59.8¢
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Prelims)Won
Levan Chokheli$10 @ 78.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 52.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 38.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 71.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
No$5 @ 79.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.0¢
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)Lost
Khamzat Chimaev$1 @ 80.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)Won
Gabriel Bonfim$54 @ 47.8¢
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Fabian MarozsanWon
Denis Shapovalov$50 @ 45.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 74.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 12.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$2 @ 70.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
No$6 @ 89.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 23.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 71.2¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 79.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$131	99.4¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$111	33.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Politics	No	$93	92.1¢
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$88	99.5¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Politics	No	$63	99.5¢
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	Tech	No	$57	99.5¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$49	97.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$47	99.5¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$44	38.6¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$39	86.7¢
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Crypto	No	$39	99.4¢
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$37	99.7¢
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$37	99.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	No	$36	77.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$36	69.9¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Politics	No	$33	99.2¢
Trump out as President by June 30?	Politics	No	$30	99.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$28	99.8¢
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$28	98.9¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?	Tech	No	$25	98.3¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Politics	No	$23	94.2¢
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	Culture	No	$22	94.1¢
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?	Politics	No	$21	99.9¢
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Politics	Yes	$19	49.5¢
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$16	93.1¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	Yes	$16	14.0¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Politics	No	$15	99.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$15	93.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?	—	No	$15	99.7¢
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$14	93.3¢

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$131 @ 99.4¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$111 @ 33.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics
No$93 @ 92.1¢
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Geopolitics
No$88 @ 99.5¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Politics
No$63 @ 99.5¢
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?Tech
No$57 @ 99.5¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Geopolitics
No$49 @ 97.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Geopolitics
No$47 @ 99.5¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$44 @ 38.6¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$39 @ 86.7¢
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?Crypto
No$39 @ 99.4¢
Xi Jinping out by June 30?Geopolitics
No$37 @ 99.7¢
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$37 @ 99.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
No$36 @ 77.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$36 @ 69.9¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Politics
No$33 @ 99.2¢
Trump out as President by June 30?Politics
No$30 @ 99.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Geopolitics
No$28 @ 99.8¢
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$28 @ 98.9¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?Tech
No$25 @ 98.3¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Politics
No$23 @ 94.2¢
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Culture
No$22 @ 94.1¢
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?Politics
No$21 @ 99.9¢
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?Politics
Yes$19 @ 49.5¢
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 93.1¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
Yes$16 @ 14.0¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Politics
No$15 @ 99.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$15 @ 93.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?—
No$15 @ 99.7¢
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$14 @ 93.3¢