0xff09…25ab

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xff0931866aa744cc4f4e71d89055244adfff25ab
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.2pp

ROI

+23%

Win rate

56% @ 48.3¢

Brier

0.219

Resolved

4323

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (103/200)	+24%	200
Politics	73% (72/98)	+1%	98
Sports	62% (16/26)	+59%	26
Geopolitics	83% (20/24)	-6%	24
Tech	100% (20/20)	+1%	20
Crypto	63% (5/8)	+25%	8
Culture	100% (3/3)	+0%	3
Economy	100% (1/1)	+1%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+2%	1

Other200 bets
Hit rate
52% (103/200)
ROI
+24%
Politics98 bets
Hit rate
73% (72/98)
ROI
+1%
Sports26 bets
Hit rate
62% (16/26)
ROI
+59%
Geopolitics24 bets
Hit rate
83% (20/24)
ROI
-6%
Tech20 bets
Hit rate
100% (20/20)
ROI
+1%
Crypto8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
+25%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+0%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+1%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+2%

Track record

63% hit · 241/381

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$8	74.1¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)	Kyle Nelson	$64	37.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$93	21.7¢	Won
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Fabian Marozsan	Denis Shapovalov	$50	45.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Ramazan Temirov vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)	Steve Erceg	$1	50.0¢	Lost
Will Shawn Harris win the GA-14 special election?	No	$1	87.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$9	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$122	11.9¢	Lost
UFC 326: Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar (Flyweight, Early Prelims)	Jesus Aguilar	$6	35.0¢	Lost
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)	Jim Miller	$10	28.9¢	Won
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Ciryl Gane	$43	49.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$23	77.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$36	19.2¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Prelims)	Michael Aswell	$2	78.5¢	Lost
UCF Knights vs. UCLA Bruins	UCF Knights	$2	33.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	$3	34.8¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)	Luana Santos	$3	49.3¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$50	64.0¢	Won
Canucks vs. Flames	Flames	$3	59.0¢	Won
Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	$1	68.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$2	49.4¢	Lost
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats	Santa Clara Broncos	$35	42.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)	Joe Pyfer	$179	44.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$2	74.2¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$50	12.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$3	19.9¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims)	John Yannis	$2	22.5¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)	Alessandro Costa	$2	80.5¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)	Matt Schnell	$1	21.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelims)	Robert Ruchala	$25	35.2¢	Lost
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5	Over	$15	59.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$5	74.6¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$2	16.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$1	70.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	30.3¢	Lost
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Daria Kasatkina vs Ann Li	Ann Li	$24	54.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	No	$2	16.8¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$4	81.4¢	Won
Sabres vs. Bruins	Bruins	$5	53.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	No	$2	8.2¢	Won
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Prelims)	Francisco Prado	$28	38.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	No	$101	58.5¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Juan Diaz	$32	32.3¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$67	71.1¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$29	1.0¢	Lost
Spread: United States (-1.5)	United States	$1	35.0¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)	Polyana Viana	$35	37.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)	Lerone Murphy	$3	32.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$2	24.2¢	Lost

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$8 @ 74.1¢
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)Lost
Kyle Nelson$64 @ 37.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$93 @ 21.7¢
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Fabian MarozsanWon
Denis Shapovalov$50 @ 45.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Ramazan Temirov vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)Lost
Steve Erceg$1 @ 50.0¢
Will Shawn Harris win the GA-14 special election?Won
No$1 @ 87.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$9 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$122 @ 11.9¢
UFC 326: Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar (Flyweight, Early Prelims)Lost
Jesus Aguilar$6 @ 35.0¢
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)Won
Jim Miller$10 @ 28.9¢
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Won
Ciryl Gane$43 @ 49.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 77.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$36 @ 19.2¢
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Prelims)Lost
Michael Aswell$2 @ 78.5¢
UCF Knights vs. UCLA BruinsLost
UCF Knights$2 @ 33.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Lost
No$3 @ 34.8¢
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)Won
Luana Santos$3 @ 49.3¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$50 @ 64.0¢
Canucks vs. FlamesWon
Flames$3 @ 59.0¢
Knicks vs. SpursLost
Spurs$1 @ 68.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$2 @ 49.4¢
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky WildcatsLost
Santa Clara Broncos$35 @ 42.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)Won
Joe Pyfer$179 @ 44.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 74.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 12.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 19.9¢
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims)Lost
John Yannis$2 @ 22.5¢
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)Won
Alessandro Costa$2 @ 80.5¢
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)Lost
Matt Schnell$1 @ 21.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelims)Lost
Robert Ruchala$25 @ 35.2¢
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Lost
Over$15 @ 59.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$5 @ 74.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 70.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 30.3¢
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Daria Kasatkina vs Ann LiWon
Ann Li$24 @ 54.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Lost
No$2 @ 16.8¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$4 @ 81.4¢
Sabres vs. BruinsLost
Bruins$5 @ 53.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?Won
No$2 @ 8.2¢
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Prelims)Lost
Francisco Prado$28 @ 38.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Won
No$101 @ 58.5¢
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)Won
Juan Diaz$32 @ 32.3¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$67 @ 71.1¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$29 @ 1.0¢
Spread: United States (-1.5)Won
United States$1 @ 35.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)Lost
Polyana Viana$35 @ 37.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)Lost
Lerone Murphy$3 @ 32.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 24.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$111	33.1¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$78	93.3¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$61	92.0¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	No	$45	96.5¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$44	38.6¢
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	Culture	No	$39	94.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$37	70.1¢
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Crypto	No	$32	96.8¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$31	94.2¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$28	87.1¢
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$21	93.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$20	51.3¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	Tech	No	$17	92.4¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$16	93.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$15	93.7¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	Yes	$14	14.0¢
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$14	94.1¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Politics	No	$13	95.4¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$11	91.9¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Politics	Yes	$10	95.7¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?	Tech	No	$10	87.9¢
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$9	62.9¢
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2	Sports	Pacquiao	$9	50.4¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$8	91.5¢
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	Politics	No	$8	94.3¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$8	93.9¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	No	$8	98.3¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$8	90.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$7	48.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$7	81.9¢

SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$111 @ 33.1¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$78 @ 93.3¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$61 @ 92.0¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?Crypto
No$45 @ 96.5¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$44 @ 38.6¢
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Culture
No$39 @ 94.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$37 @ 70.1¢
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?Crypto
No$32 @ 96.8¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$31 @ 94.2¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$28 @ 87.1¢
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$21 @ 93.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$20 @ 51.3¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?Tech
No$17 @ 92.4¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 93.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$15 @ 93.7¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
Yes$14 @ 14.0¢
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$14 @ 94.1¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Politics
No$13 @ 95.4¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$11 @ 91.9¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Politics
Yes$10 @ 95.7¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?Tech
No$10 @ 87.9¢
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?Crypto
Yes$9 @ 62.9¢
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2Sports
Pacquiao$9 @ 50.4¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$8 @ 91.5¢
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?Politics
No$8 @ 94.3¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 93.9¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?Crypto
No$8 @ 98.3¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$8 @ 90.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$7 @ 48.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 81.9¢