← Smart money
0xfd2a…a916
SharpEdge
+28.4pp
ROI
+43%
Win rate
95% @ 66.8¢
Brier
0.124
Resolved
41
Avg size
$1
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 67% (2/3) | +6% | 3 |
| Politics | 67% (2/3) | +16% | 3 |
| Other | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Sports3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +6%
- Politics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +16%
- Other1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
57% hit · 4/7| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | $11 | 37.0¢ | Lost |
| Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold? | No | $1 | 37.0¢ | Lost |
| UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Ciryl Gane | $1 | 51.0¢ | Won |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Spurs | $1 | 68.0¢ | Lost |
| UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims) | Alessandro Costa | $1 | 82.0¢ | Won |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | $37 | 66.4¢ | Won |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | Yes | $1 | 95.8¢ | Won |
- No$11 @ 37.0¢
- No$1 @ 37.0¢
- Ciryl Gane$1 @ 51.0¢
- Knicks vs. SpursLostSpurs$1 @ 68.0¢
- Alessandro Costa$1 @ 82.0¢
- Yes$37 @ 66.4¢
- Yes$1 @ 95.8¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Politics | Yes | $30 | 48.4¢ |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | Politics | No | $14 | 68.4¢ |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Politics | No | $13 | 52.8¢ |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $12 | 69.3¢ |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | No | $11 | 37.0¢ |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | No | $7 | 64.0¢ |
| Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024? | Politics | Yes | $3 | 98.2¢ |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $3 | 67.7¢ |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Politics | No | $2 | 73.5¢ |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $2 | 68.9¢ |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | Culture | Yes | $2 | 65.0¢ |
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 79.0¢ |
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?PoliticsYes$30 @ 48.4¢
- No$14 @ 68.4¢
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$13 @ 52.8¢
- Yes$12 @ 69.3¢
- No$11 @ 37.0¢
- No$7 @ 64.0¢
- Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?PoliticsYes$3 @ 98.2¢
- Yes$3 @ 67.7¢
- No$2 @ 73.5¢
- No$2 @ 68.9¢
- Yes$2 @ 65.0¢
- Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?PoliticsYes$1 @ 79.0¢